Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[Methuselah]

End of the Op:      

 

The FV3:         

So, two entirely different solutions; and the op is most definitely on the cold end of the ensemble:

                      

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ecm brings a cooler more unsettled garbage midweek, temps look like recovering again by day 8/9, hopefully pressure rising from the south to.... Overall not to bad Mr mighty ECM! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

17 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

 

                      

Can never understand them crayon looking ensembles Pete.... It looks like Jeremy corbyns lie detector test....

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z in the short-term is more of the same glorious very warm weather until and including next tuesday..midweek but especially thursday is when things start to return to normal..enjoy it while it lasts..it's a summery bonus in april.

Edited April 20, 2019 by Frosty.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 12z in the short-term is more of the same glorious very warm weather until and including next tuesday..midweek but especially thursday is when things start to return to normal..enjoy it while it lasts..it's a summery bonus in april.

Strikingly similar to last year!

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean also continues with the very warm settled theme up to and including next tuesday but as with the operational there is a general breakdown during the midweek period when it becomes more unsettled and temperatures return to the seasonal average with sunshine and showers, some heavy and thundery, even merging into longer spells of rain in places and becoming more breezy / windy for a time but then the low pressure influence starts to ease with even some weak height rises to the south bringing improvement, especially further south but still an ongoing risk of showers and nights could be on the chilly side where skies clear.

[ANYWEATHER]

A very late Easter post  from me... 

 

 

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Ecm and gfs runs still looks awfully unsettled and autumnal next week and going into May with around 50mm of rain for the South West and parts of wales next week.

[knocker]

Outlook - It's very tricky (or at least I think it is) trying to pin down the evolution in the medium term at the moment. Sticking with last evening's EPS in a little over a week the latest ejection from the vortex becomes isolated in the vicinity of the UK as the Bermuda high once more amplifies, cutting off the conduit to the vortex.. In fact the whole of the NH is very amplified, But as can be seen by the 7-12 anomaly, this quickly relaxes and with a little stretch, you can see how this position is arrived at. Not even going to attempt any surface analysis except possible an April shower type scenario morphing into a more benign period.

Meanwhile back on the farm and the NH 500mb profile and Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UTC UK chart

Another very warm and sunny day for most, albeit the sunshine may be a tad hazy in places, and sea breezes will cool down coastal areas a little. The exception to this will be the north and north west of Scotland where the proximity of fronts associated with the complex trough to the west will bring cloud and some patchy rain.

This will clear overnight leaving everywhere clear with the odd fog patch forming by morning

Monday another sunny and very warm day, but an onshore breeze along North Sea coasts is back and the there is a trough lurking near the south west that may bring the odd shower late on.

Over Monday night and through Tuesday the upper trough to the west has dug further south and convective activity in the developing low pressure area to the SW/S will perhaps drift north during Tuesday evening bringing the odd storm to the south west.Otherwise another very warn and sunny day but with the noted exception of the north east and eastern coastal regions

But by Wednesday fronts associated with the, by now, complex area of low pressure to the SW have tracked north and storms well become more general in the south and the midlands. And now temps have plummeted, particularly in the north

By Thursday the area of low pressure covers all of the UK so unsettled with sunshine and showers and much cooler generally

 

Edited April 21, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

And foregoing detail at this range, remaining unsettled over next weekend according to the gfs

[Frosty.]

6 hours ago, 38.5*C said:

Ecm and gfs runs still looks awfully unsettled and autumnal next week and going into May with around 50mm of rain for the South West and parts of wales next week.

Autumnal?..more like normal spring compared to the current summery spell.

[knocker]

The ecm also very unsettled during next weekend with temps trending below average

[Polar Maritime]

Yes a change to something cooler/wetter as from Wednesday and into the weekend. 

[Methuselah]

So, once the current warm spell dissipates (Wednesday looks certain), what are the indications on how the longer term outlook  might look like?

FV3: GFS:

Apart from cautioning against (when will I ever learn?) trying to use ordinary models as an indication of how the season might develop, not a lot!

The Ensemble says:  with the only consolation (that I can see) being that the Op lies, once again, at the very coldest side of the pack...

[ANYWEATHER]

Morning All, if you like this fine weather and want it to carry on, Please don't look at the gfs or ecm , PS I won't put any charts up, you won't like them! Happy Easter everyone!

[Singularity]

Looking around, it seems to be an awakening of the MJO in the eastern Indian Ocean that’s bringing about some strong HLB to prevent the recovery of conditions via HP to the south next weekend on.

It’s possible that the pattern could adjust further west with room for some Euro-SE UK ridging if the Nino forcing is strong enough, but the models aren’t optimistic about this.

Typical propagation pace takes the MJO into the Nino-friendly phases by mid-May, so we could be waiting a while for a resumption of a more Nino type pattern of increasingly warm/hot settled spells and breaks that tend to be thundery.

Hopefully this is on the pessimistic side wait-wise... but even if it isn’t, rest assured it doesn’t have any bearing on the summer pattern this year; the probability of helpful v unhelpful MJO activity remains the same.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Just to wish everyone on Netweather and the model output thread a great Easter. Whether you’re going through a difficult time, or something more, I hope Easter ends up being kind to you! 

@Singularity And you make a valid point in your last paragraph. What ever the models show now, whether it’s an unsettled spell, or a dry and sunny one, or a mixture of both even, it doesn’t really have a bearing to what could happen in the Summer. Like with last year when there was a fair amount of warm dry weather in both April and May (I suppose with the regional variations), it lead to a very warm and dry Summer for most overall! I think there was also one year with quite a chunk of showery weather in April and May that lead to a warmer, settled,  Summer. Might have been 2006 (or possibly 2003).

Edited April 21, 2019 by DiagonalRedLine

[Frosty.]

Looking at the extended Ecm 00z ensemble mean it's cool and unsettled with sunshine and showers, some heavy with hail and thunder probably the main theme, feeling pleasant in the sunshine but nights still long enough to become quite chilly where skies clear and winds fall light...welcome rain for the gardens.

Edited April 21, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Happy Easter folks... Great post from singularity, and well made points from DRL. Yes folks don't get to disappointed over this mini breakdown, I expect a week at most of more unsettled conditions before pressure rises and brings warm weather yet again! And when it does, it will be the 3rd warm spell since February already.... Not bad Considering it still won't be technically summer!! 

[Frosty.]

I can't sugar coat the GEFS 00z mean, once this current summery spell ends it's turning cooler and unsettled for quite a while.

Edited April 21, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I can't sugar coat the GEFS 00z mean, once this current summery spell ends it's turning cooler and unsettled for quite a while.

Don't get to disheartened Karl, the long range models are looking good for quite a lot of high pressure again this season. I've heard it being said that statistically a summer like last year would be not the normal!! But the normal no longer applies, the majot shifts in climate change is seeing to that.... Unfortunately!!! Summers like last year could becoming the norm very soon.... Good for some reasons, but very bad for others! A liitle unsettled spell in April wont stop the next batch of heat and sun from rearing its head again very soon... Until then enjoy the next  couple of days....

[Methuselah]

Out to Thursday, and it's turning decidedly unsettled, though -- at this stage -- certainly not cold:

 

[Guest Delete Me]

Hopefully HP can build over and squeeze the low out quickly

[Methuselah]

And, by next weekend, temps are also rather depressed:

 

But is there a hint of warmer conditions moving northwards?

[Methuselah]

I knew that, if we waited long enough, a Gricelandavian HP would eventually rear its ugly head!