Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

OK rain lovers you cam have your moment with cooler unsettled conditions mid next week for a few days, but make the most of it!! Some of the seasonal models including CFS have warmer and settled Conditions returning come early May... Pretty much ties in with Exters thoughts has well. Enjoy the next few days heat lovers!!! And cool crap lovers enjoy the odd few days during next week.... The fine settled Conditions will be back, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it dominate throughout May. Ohhhh yehhh it's gonna be a beaut!!! 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

 'normal' weather looks set to resume for the time being.....

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=143

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

14 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

 'normal' weather looks set to resume for the time being.....

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=143

 

38.5 wouldn't it be easier to just post the charts? 

[markyo]

2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

OK rain lovers you cam have your moment with cooler unsettled conditions mid next week for a few days, but make the most of it!! Some of the seasonal models including CFS have warmer and settled Conditions returning come early May... Pretty much ties in with Exters thoughts has well. Enjoy the next few days heat lovers!!! And cool crap lovers enjoy the odd few days during next week.... The fine settled Conditions will be back, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it dominate throughout May. Ohhhh yehhh it's gonna be a beaut!!! 

Sorry but we do need rain desperately,fully understand your love of the dry warm/hot weather but a balance is long over due. We will all suffer if not. Its nothing to do with being a cool crap lover as you put it, we certainly require a pattern change,this dry set up is effecting both wildlife and farming especially.

Edited April 20, 2019 by markyo

[MATTWOLVES 3]

28 minutes ago, markyo said:

Sorry but we do need rain desperately,fully understand your love of the dry warm/hot weather but a balance is long over due. We will all suffer if not. Its nothing to do with being a cool crap lover as you put it, we certainly require a pattern change,this dry set up is effecting both wildlife and farming especially.

Hang on a sec.... Did somebody during the night move me to nevada!! We had quite a wet march, and the start of April was no great shakes, to my knowledge we have had a few days of glorious weather and all of a sudden its red alert in April! We coped fine last year and that was some summer! Some folks do love the cool unsettled Conditions and can't wait for a breakdown.... And when it finally comes it can drag on for weeks!! If we was into a month long heatwave now, I could understand where you was coming from... But we are not.... Far from it... 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

21 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Hang on a sec.... Did somebody during the night move me to nevada!! We had quite a wet march, and the start of April was no great shakes, to my knowledge we have had a few days of glorious weather and all of a sudden its red alert in April! We coped fine last year and that was some summer! Some folks do love the cool unsettled Conditions and can't wait for a breakdown.... And when it finally comes it can drag on for weeks!! If we was into a month long heatwave now, I could understand where you was coming from... But we are not.... Far from it... 

Without wanting to derail the thread, there are areas that are low on reserves:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/water-situation-local-area-reports

I appreciate that long, hot summers are very popular, and I'm not suggesting that it's unreasonable to want a warm summer; I'd like one, but we do need some rain.  It seems as though some members here regard a few wet days as the end of summer or as an unreasonable turn of events when it's to be expected in this country.  Our land is fertile and our countryside verdant due to the fact that we have rain fairly evenly-distributed throughout the year, including summer.

Edited April 20, 2019 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Bristawl Si]

24 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Hang on a sec.... Did somebody during the night move me to nevada!! We had quite a wet march, and the start of April was no great shakes, to my knowledge we have had a few days of glorious weather and all of a sudden its red alert in April! We coped fine last year and that was some summer! Some folks do love the cool unsettled Conditions and can't wait for a breakdown.... And when it finally comes it can drag on for weeks!! If we was into a month long heatwave now, I could understand where you was coming from... But we are not.... Far from it... 

South West Water's main reservoirs are between 87% and 98% full to capacity, so no issues really down here. (Not my particular water authority i hasten to add).

Wessex Water, which serves my area, reported 100% full reservoirs at end of March.

So, yes, there isnt a water shortage issue in this area, even for the coming Summer.

Severn Trent mid-April 94.9% full.

Edited April 20, 2019 by Bristle boy

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, Bristle boy said:

South West Water's main reservoirs are between 87% and 98% full to capacity, so no issues really down here. (Not my particular water authority i hasten to add).

Wessex Water, which serves my area, reported 100% full reservoirs at end of March.

So, yes, there isnt a water shortage issue in this area, even for the coming Summer.

March was much wetter further west - in East Anglia, for example, rainfall was around or just either side of average.  Anyway, that's the last I'm going to post on that subject in this thread; apologies Mods.

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12h keeps the very warm weather going well into early next week but after a settled start it gradually becomes more unsettled with sunshine and showers, some heavy and thundery with temperatures returning to the seasonal average which really isn't bad as it would still feel warm in the sunshine and summer is still over five weeks away..all things considered..it could be a lot worse!.. 25.5c 78f recorded today and tomorrow could hit 24c and similar on Easter monday.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Without wanting to derail the thread, there are areas that are low on reserves:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/water-situation-local-area-reports

I appreciate that long, hot summers are very popular, and I'm not suggesting that it's unreasonable to want a warm summer; I'd like one, but we do need some rain.  It seems as though some members here regard a few wet days as the end of summer or as an unreasonable turn of events when it's to be expected in this country.  Our land is fertile and our countryside verdant due to the fact that we have rain fairly evenly-distributed throughout the year, including summer.

My point was Chris that sometimes unsettled spells do indeed drag on for ages.... Look at some of the wet summers over the last decade... I just can't understand the thinking of rain is required... And required right now.... Its the same when we have one major freeze at the end of winter and folk start Complaining of how it's gonna ruin nature! The U.k is surrounded by water, we may occasionally get a draught scenario, but because of the above circumstances..... We will never suffer long term water shortages. 

Likewise Chris.... Subject closed.... Sorry mods 

Edited April 20, 2019 by Mattwolves

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The ukmo 12h keeps the very warm weather going well into early next week but after a settled start it gradually becomes more unsettled with sunshine and showers, some heavy and thundery with temperatures returning to the seasonal average which really isn't bad as it would still feel warm in the sunshine and summer is still over five weeks away..all things considered..it could be a lot worse!.. 25.5c 78f recorded today and tomorrow could hit 24c and similar on Easter monday.

Thanks for bringing the forum back to what it's intended for karland yes things could be alot worse, and summer still weeks away!! It's all good

[Earthshine]

What an absolutely stunning few days it's been.  Really good vibes and it's hard not to be in a good mood with such perfect weather.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if the cooler weather is just a brief non-event before high pressure and sunshine returns.

[Frosty.]

An arctic plunge in early May on the Gfs 12z operational with snow spreading south..not making it up..honest

[markyo]

48 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Hang on a sec.... Did somebody during the night move me to nevada!! We had quite a wet march, and the start of April was no great shakes, to my knowledge we have had a few days of glorious weather and all of a sudden its red alert in April! We coped fine last year and that was some summer! Some folks do love the cool unsettled Conditions and can't wait for a breakdown.... And when it finally comes it can drag on for weeks!! If we was into a month long heatwave now, I could understand where you was coming from... But we are not.... Far from it... 

All i'm saying is from what i have seen. Over the Woodhead pass in the Pennies which i travel daily almost for the last 30 plus years there are 3 very large reservoirs,Crowden. One is full,one is over half empty,one is bone dry. Never saw that even after last summer. The landscape is burnt ie as it looked as i said before like August last year. We certainly didn't have a wet March by any means i'm afraid in that area.

 

[Frosty.]

Boom?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

An arctic plunge in early May on the Gfs 12z operational with snow spreading south..not making it up..honest

The 12z not been updated into early May on meteociel yet! are you viewing another site? 

Pretty sure I've seen snow charts like that somewhere before!! Winter perhaps!

Edited April 20, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The 12z not been updated into early May on meteociel yet! are you viewing another site? 

Yes matt, thweatheroutlook.com

I think that's about as potent an arctic outbreak could be in early May.❄❄

Edited April 20, 2019 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes matt, thweatheroutlook.com

I think that's about as potent an arctic outbreak could be in early May.❄❄

It can stay away! I don't live high oop norf!

wanna start seeing summery charts appearing

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

wanna start seeing summery charts appearing

We have summery charts now..and tomorrow, and monday and tuesday

[Methuselah]

19 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Boom?

You can stick your Arctic Blast right up your Christmas tree, Karl! 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

You can stick your Arctic Blast right up your Christmas tree, Karl! 

I just posted it for fun Ed.. I'm still lamenting winter.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

23 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

You can stick your Arctic Blast right up your Christmas tree, Karl! 

Aye, no good for your area either

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational arctic plunge MAY not be quite so funny because the GEFS 12z mean suggests there is a good probability of some form of arctic incursion at the end of april / start of may with heights to the NW and a scandi trough. 

Edited April 20, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z operational arctic plunge MAY not be quite so funny because the GEFS 12z mean suggests there is a good probability of some form of arctic incursion at the end of april / start of may with heights to the NW and a scandi trough

Can't see it Karl... Absolutely know mention of any arctic plunges from some of the senior forecasters plus them that can't be named. All winter the GFS kept showing arctic plunges in fi, and we all no how that faired. I'm pretty sure that come July, the GFS models will still be showing cold plunges!! Come to think of it.. I think the GFS would still be showing arctic plunges if the arctic had become the Mediterranean!!

[Frosty.]

31 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Can't see it Karl... Absolutely know mention of any arctic plunges from some of the senior forecasters plus them that can't be named. 

I can't see it either, just saying what the mean is showing which knowing it's recent form with arctic outbreaks, has no chance of verifying since not 1 arctic blast shown on the models has become reality in the last 5 / 6 months.