Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[Methuselah]

As Rees-Mogg might say: at least the door to the Artic hasn't been left ajar, this time, Old Chap!

 

And the man from the ensemble, he say: Yah! 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening! At last we have a general consensus that ecm and gfs agree on a breakdown from the Atlantic, Perhaps a Thundery breakdown ,Tuesday /Wednesday , then a normal regime by late week. No Detail , But the Theme looks increasingly unsettled...!

[Frosty.]

The extended GEFS 12z mean signal in early May is nae bad, suggestions of ridging which in reality could mean an anticyclone building in and maybe even warm continental breezes..looking on the bright side of course!!

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z mean looks like a trough about T144:

But all looking good for settled weather building from T240:

Although from viewing other runs, a quicker route to settled conditions is possible. 

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

But all looking good for settled weather building from T240:

Although from viewing other runs, a quicker route to settled conditions is possible. 

Remarkably similar to how the Ecm 00z ensemble mean looked at day 10 Mike, if anything a slight improvement in terms of the azores ridge.

Edited April 19, 2019 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z also shows high pressure building in again later next week following an unsettled blip and it warms up again too..in the meantime, plenty more very warm, dry and sunny weather to come from the current lovely summery spell!

Edited April 19, 2019 by Frosty.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Well the gfs 18z looks nothing like the Gem 12z, The 18z says central heating will have to come back on......

 

[knocker]

Can't stop this morning so just a glance at Tuesday/Weds

Convective activity moving north across the south west later on Tuesday and more generally with bands of more persistent rain as the fronts track north on Weds

[Methuselah]

Going by the 00Zs, a midweek breakdown is almost nailed-on:

GFS:  

 

FV3:  

 

After that, it's a bit 'all around the houses' with the endings thus:

 

GFS:  FV3: 

 

The ensemble also suggests a gradual warm-up will follow the midweek cool-down:

 

[johnholmes]

Hard to say looking at the usual 500 mb anomaly charts but for what it is worth, my ideas this morning

Five days later what is showing?=Sat 20 April

Ec-gfs and chalk and cheese between the two this morning?

Odd looking gfs with a cut off over uk area surrounded by ridging and +ve heights; ec showing heights noway across Greenland into n America with a flow from n of w over uk with broad trough beneath these heights

Moaa last evening is not that far from the ec idea. Not sure why gfs has its set up, it was not far from ec yesterday.

Overall the 3 have had changes (not large) from day to day from trough to ridge being the major feature, so best not to take too much from the latest output, although I would tend to feel that a less warm and more changeable atlantic flow is perhaps the form horse?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[Summer Sun]

Defiantly looking more unsettled during next week as low pressure takes over most areas should see some rain by Wednesday

00z UKMO

 

[SLEETY]

ecm hitting at something very much colder again at the end of its run,maybe once one of these cold charts will verify

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 00z the warm air lasts most of next week, nothing to moan about unless you don't like warm weather

[Frosty.]

As we can see here, the Ecm 00z ensemble mean also keeps the uk bathed in warmth / warm uppers for much of the week ahead.

[Methuselah]

Even if Tuesday does turn out to be the last sunny, warm one, in a while, it'll still mean about eight straight days' almost wall-to-wall suntanning weather. Not to be sniffed at!

 

 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Even if Tuesday does turn out to be the last sunny, warm one, in a while, it'll still mean about eight straight days' almost wall-to-wall suntanning weather. Not to be sniffed at!

 

 

Yes Ed it's amazing to think the start of the meteorological summer is still over five weeks away..what a bonus this is.

[Methuselah]

Next weekend looks to be rather unsettled, but never too cold; a timely respite for those averse to heat, perhaps?

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Next weekend looks to be rather unsettled, but never too cold; a timely respite for those averse to heat, perhaps?

 

 

a rare SW'ly too Ed, better than an E'ly

[Methuselah]

Are we (for the umpteenth time this year!) on the cusp of something special?

 

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

a rare SW'ly too Ed, better than an E'ly

Indeed, nae need to fret about sea haar haha

[Dancerwithwings]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the Ecm 00z the warm air lasts most of next week, nothing to moan about unless you don't like warm weather

I’m defo not moaning, but I bet those who thought getting away  would be better for this Easter break, especially Spain, they aren’t moaning.... crying more likely.

For those who decided to stay, have a lovely sunny and V warm weekend.

[Frosty.]

Although it looks like gradually turning unsettled next week it stays warm well into the week and the GEFS 6z shows it's not all bad news..with a bit of luck the warmth could soon return and even high pressure!

[Methuselah]

What the GFS giveth, the FV3 taketh away: not a cusp in sight!

 

The glaring differences between the latest MetO and BBC forecasts comes to mind?

Still, the ensemble looks okay: 

Edited April 20, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What the GFS giveth, the FV3 taketh away

I pretty much ignore whatever it shows..unless it shows high pressure

[Frosty.]

Looking on the bright side, which may well not be the right side..the extended GEFS 6z mean hints at ridging by early May and there is a possibly of something very warm and or anticyclonic.

 

Edited April 20, 2019 by Frosty.