Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And, as we move on down the line (thank you, Roy Orbison) the FV3 produces a watered-down version of its obligatory 'Arctic Blast':

What's the chance of this one verifying!

 

Chances don't compute Ed..like all the others before it.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Is the FV3 the uprated GFS?  Any idea as to whether it's less-prone to the old GFS biases?

The FV3 is suffering from major bug issues and is currently due for official release in June, but this keeps being put back, which goes to show the issues are still a big problem.... I would take anything it shows regarding cold..... With a big pinch of salt!! Back to the here and now, I feel 25 could be exceeded somewhere in the next few days.... Pretty amazing for late April!

[Paul]

The FV3 has an update going live this afternoon:

Quote

NCO will be making changes to the parallel GFS v15 with today's 1200UTC model run. The details of these changes are below.

1. We changed the way snow amounts were calculated and communicated to the land surface model, basing it on the fraction of frozen precipitation falling on the ground rather than basing it on the total precipitation in cold conditions.
2. We refined the interaction of radiation with cloud particles, allowing for each type of hydrometeor (convective rain, stratiform rain, snow, graupel, and ice) to assume its own physical characteristics as calculated by the GFDL microphysics scheme (like particle radius) and interact accordingly with the radiation scheme.
3. We updated the supersaturation parameter over ice in the data assimilation system.
4. We updated the Data Assimilation to assimilate NPP OMPS ozone, place NOAA-19 SBUV/2 ozone in monitor, assimilate Meteosat-11 SEVIRI channels 5 & 6, update QC for GOES AMVs in preparation for GOES-17  

 

[JoeShmoe]

Can keep your artic blasts in the artic ! More days like today please !!

[Mike Poole]

Glorious day today, first heat of summer = first frost of winter, as moments to mark the passage of time.  So to the 12s and this animation through to T180 from ICON looks consistent with model output/

 

the trough developing just west of the UK,giving some thundery potential mostly to the west before becoming more unsettled before the ridge becomes re established.  A theme we might see repeated, I would suggest!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, JoeShmoe said:

Can keep your artic blasts in the artic ! More days like today please !!

agree but it's Arctic not artic! 

[Summer Sun]

Official release of GFS P now scheduled for June 

[Methuselah]

All's still okay for Wednesday:

And Paragate will soon be a thing of the past!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Icon not to bad out to nearly day 8...there is some low pressure to our S/SW... But there is plenty of high pressure on the scene at the end of the run... Personally I think any unsettled conditions, are gonna be a blink and you will miss it affair!!! 

[knocker]

This evening's gfs indicates we are well into a pattern transition by midday Tuesday with another upper trough that has been ejected from the vortex, now by a slightly indirect route, in the close proximity to Iberia/. Consequently the Atlantic has become trough dominated as the block is pushed a tad north, albeit in a very quiescent mode with the jet running a way south.

Thus we have low pressure to the south west of the UK and in swathe east across Europe involving a lot of convective activity, some of which may drift north across the south west on Tuesday and perhaps more generally on Wednesday

Still warm on Tuesday, but temps down from the weekend, particularly once again along North Sea coasts

I'm off on a day trip to Kent's Caverns and Torquay early tomorrow. Forgot when I boked it that was the Easter weekend. Let the nightmare begin........

[Mike Poole]

GFS, UKMO and GEM at T144

I don't know what the GFS is thinking trying to barrel that low through, the other models more reticent, and the GEM looks like that zombie dragon from Game of Thrones. 

Either way, it impacts on the later output, GFS T192:

GEM at same time:

I think the GEM fits most consistently with other model output so I'm going with that, GFS is likely out on its own.  We will see, as always.

[Methuselah]

By T+276 we have this:                                                                            

And at T+384, this:                                                                              

So, could we be in for a summer of repeats?

Edited April 19, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Methuselah]

FV3's defo got Monday's snow accumulations spot on!  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

ECM out to day 5 still having us on the warm side, low pressure becoming more of a feature but temps not to bad.... How long before high pressure regains Control is the million dollar question! 

[knocker]

This evening's fax and ecm have trough digging south and low pressure established over western  Europe by midday Monday

And by Tuesday/Weds some convective activity. and perhaps longer spells of rain, moving north into the UK

Temps still above average on Tuesday, apart from the north east, but by Weds getting nearer normal but with quite a wide regional spread with the eastern parts of England being the warmest

Edited April 19, 2019 by knocker

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Correct me if I'm wrong folks but low pressure on the ECM is struggling to get a foothold, it was moving SE, now it seems to be pegging back to the NW!! Heights look strong over scandy as well..... Like I said earlier I think this un settled spell maybe a flash in the pan. 

Edited April 19, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

It looks like a right old ding dong battle between the scandi block and the atlantic next week, initially early next week the block has more strength and forces the atlantic back and that will keep us in the warm air well into next week.

Edited April 19, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It looks like a right old ding dong battle between the scandi block and the atlantic next week, initially early next week the block has more strength and forces the atlantic back and that will keep us in the warm air well into next week.

Yes Karl... Some signs has well of heights building from the SW by day 9...dont think it looks to bad tbh...

[Methuselah]

Doesn't look too bad, to me, with the -5 uppers being kept at bay:

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

By day 10 heights showing signs of retaking control, that's a decent ECM... Read it and weep rain lovers!!!! 

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z T240, yes it is return to high pressure dominated weather in the subsequent two frames if we could see them, but it is a messy run:

JMA much cleaner run through the trough to T192:

Obviously there are various options once the trough interrupts the current spell, but my view is they will all end in another high, one way or another.

[Frosty.]

Matt beat me to it but day 10 ends a lot better going forward than the Ecm 00z which was very locked in cool cyclonic..this day 10 shows the trough filling as it's squeezed by high pressure to the sw / ne.

[Frosty.]

Actually the Ecm 00z ensemble mean finished better too compared to the operational with a suggestion that the azores high would start ridging in..hope the 12z mean continues to build on that idea.

Edited April 19, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

Nothing all that bad on the FV3, even out to the 30th:

 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Nothing all that bad on the FV3, even out to the 30th:

 

Indeed it's nae bad, sunshine and showers i would say?