Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS at T108, the position of the trough, even if less pronounced, would suggest a plume scenario with the potential for thundery outbreaks.  Good to see.

image.thumb.jpg.6de268e465b76d9175b9a3abbebee713.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.5d091d94d2e6ee8ce768b779cf2cce0f.jpg

And by late Monday too.

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Ukmo 12h is a cracker, look at these uppers next week!..it's not just Easter that looks very warm

UW120-7.gif

UW144-7.gif

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Tuesday's looking a tad 'plumey' according to the GFS:

image.thumb.png.1ef6917e75bbbe6d518a9853741910c9.pngimage.thumb.png.7a7b12497f3444cafe8f651af7403cb0.png  :oldgood:

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

You get an idea just how impressive the European block is by looking at the 250mb wind field next Wednesday.The trough essentially runs from the vortex south east to Iberia with the jet running around the Atlantic subtropical high

gfs-nhemi-z250_speed-6118000.thumb.png.ef0db587e2cffd5c6b451123422911ab.png

Edited by knocker
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Definite backward step in terms of trough in the atlantic for next week!!its further east on both ukmo and gfs!!also no high to seperate the two lows in the atlantic so everything just conjoins!!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

it does, southerly breeze, no sea fret

Yep, no need to fret with a southerly

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

According to the gfs much convective activity next week from Tuesday onwards with low pressure to the south west.Temps still a fair bit above average over 5 days but that of course diffuses a fair bit of regional and period variation

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

On to Saturday, and a strong, warm NE'erly becomes established; just how problematic any sea-fret turns out to be is best left until nearer the time:

image.thumb.png.a5963d9ea820cc74687f66d94953214d.pngimage.thumb.png.b6245a56f8b1b0c23b4419c9d2410716.png 

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

On to Saturday, and a strong, warm NE'erly becomes established; just how problematic any sea-fret turns out to be is best left until nearer the time:

image.thumb.png.a5963d9ea820cc74687f66d94953214d.pngimage.thumb.png.b6245a56f8b1b0c23b4419c9d2410716.png 

 

In that timeframe Ed, I wouldn't fret about it

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

In that timeframe Ed, I wouldn't fret about it

Haar, haar, haar di haar!:oldgrin:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Just now, Ed Stone said:

Haar, haar, haar di haar!:oldgrin:

Let's just wait and sea what happens...let's enjoy the very summery Easter first.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

It's all looking very good on the icon... Perhaps some thundery showers being triggered later next week... Lovely warm uppers remaining, this wouldn't look out of place in 6 weeks time tbh.... Its all good folks.... And remember... Keep ya pets cool.... They hate warm weather.... 

icon-1-48.png

icon-1-120.png

icon-1-144.png

icon-1-168.png

icon-0-168.png

8153210894117222.gif

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z operational turns into a crap fest in low res, there's even some hill snaw. .I wouldn't fret about it though, nothing can spoil Easter now!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
47 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z operational turns into a crap fest in low res, there's even some hill snaw. .I wouldn't fret about it though, nothing can spoil Easter now!

Though, somewhat perversely perhaps, the FV3 doesn't end nearly so badly:

image.thumb.png.8cf445b16edb8e6aee1c8a45abe41501.pngimage.thumb.png.1e8d9cafbea849fa5de8ea02c56f998e.png 

And, the GFS op is way down at the cold end of the ensemble:image.thumb.png.5cfcfa66c67bfbac26e495f69788e30c.png 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM 12z fully going for the plume T120:  Z500 and T850 charts:

image.thumb.jpg.71121bdfe7c078513e67a7ba2f734693.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.563be7990e6a8985ef909e6e4c81d226.jpg

Let's see where it goes from here...

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Not the best of 12zs it has to be said for an extension of the heat!ecm at 144 hours the worse of the lot!!deep low to the south west!!!make the most of this between now and tuesday if we go according to ecm!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Not the best of 12zs it has to be said for an extension of the heat!ecm at 144 hours the worse of the lot!!deep low to the south west!!!make the most of this between now and tuesday if we go according to ecm!

Southerly breeze though! makes a change from E/NE, should feel decent late April

ECM1-144.GIF?18-0

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

That's a poor ECM 12Z after what we've been used to, it seems to have come out of nowhere in terms of deepening that low and moving it much further east. It would still produce a potentially very warm and humid day on Tuesday though. Hopefully just an outlier but I always worry when one model goes off the script suddenly like this.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.cb20b43a2eb81230ce6b5b602a7bb15c.jpg

I think with the current setup, we'd be monstrously unlucky to end up here at Day 10? 

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z is like a slap in the face with a wet fish later in the run, cool and cyclonic but for easter into early next week it's looking summery.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.cb20b43a2eb81230ce6b5b602a7bb15c.jpg

I think with the current setup, we'd be monstrously unlucky to end up here at Day 10?

That's more like it! Heading down to The Algarve early May so would love UK to be under LP whilst southern Europe is under HP, as should be.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
20 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

That's more like it! Heading down to The Algarve early May so would love UK to be under LP whilst southern Europe is under HP, as should be.

It wouldn't be so bad actually, sunshine and heavy thundery showers..I can dig it..plus it would stop all the recent talk about water shortages..at least for a while.

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    More rain on the way: Storm Nelson brings gales Thursday, but rain and wind easing for Easter

    Spells of rain or showers with sunshine in between affecting most areas today, snow over northern hills. Storm Nelson arrives tomorrow, bringing gales to southern coasts and windy elsewhere with further showers. Showers and wind easing somewhat into the Easter Weekend. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-27 09:35:27 Valid: 27/03/2024 0900 - 28/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 27 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...