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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And, with the possible exception of Lewis/Harris, Saturday's synoptics look absolutely perfect::oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
3 hours ago, shaky said:

Massive change on the ukmo 00z!!trough hardly gets in now and the sunny warm weather continues all the way to the end of the run!!☀️

Literally dropped my bowl of kornflakes when I read this, then i realised UKMO only runs out to day 6....all good though....

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
2 hours ago, CanadianCoops said:

I've mentioned this before - people are unduly worried about this. The UK's reservoirs are at generally high levels across most of the UK. (some regional exceptions)

Put that into context - we had one of the driest summers on record last year and there were little issues. The media fans peoples fears and there's no need. We'll be OK. We can enjoy a nice summer...

Read the UK reports here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/water-situation-local-area-reports 

Even Kent and South London is at close to full which is arguably one of the driest parts of the country: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/794178/Water_Situation_Report_Kent_South_London_March_2019.pdf

Honestly - no need to worry.

East Anglia (where I am) struggling, though.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Literally dropped my bowl of kornflakes when I read this, then i realised UKMO only runs out to day 6....all good though....

One ought never put a Special K in one's cornflakes, Matt!:oldgrin:

No signs of any rain, according to Monday's prediction?

 

image.thumb.png.493d2ef6cb8049b8cf25d285c531ed52.pngimage.thumb.png.08ecb838f18902f26dc85f1765d6c37c.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

For many it's looking good, really good according to the Gfs 6z operational for easter.. a taste of summer in mid spring..what's not to like about that? 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The 6z op stays warm next week, somewhere would reach 21c or higher..that's very impressive for late April if it happens..increasing risk of thundery showers as it becomes more humid from the south.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
52 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

East Anglia (where I am) struggling, though.

Agreed lower than average -  though still in the 80%'s range for a lot of reservoirs in that area.

Again in context look at March 2018 and the levels were fairly similar and we know what an exceptional summer followed.

I still think it'd take something special this summer to affect EA - I could be wrong

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
12 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

To much panic going on folks with water shortages.... Its still April! And has we no, we can experience a months rainfall in a few days here in the UK. It's probably best not to wish this fine spell away just yet, especially when you take a look at some of the miserable summers over the last few years! If the worse comes to the worst, we always have the North Sea to tap into, if ya don't mind your water a bit oily and salty!! Cause I doubt Europe would even send us bottled water with this naff brexit deal.... So if we get any rain let's just hope it comes during the overnight periods!!! At least 10 more fine days away from the NW if you ask me.... And yes even this could be extended.... Let's enjoy it folks! 

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My concern is not with a shortage of drinking water (at least not initially) but with the dryness of the soil: without sufficient water, crops will not grow, and that will necessitate human intervention, so possibly leading to shortages, further-on down the line...?

And I see nothing in the models (neither short-range nor seasonal) that suggests a major pattern-change, so things are only set to get worse?

But, come what may, we should all enjoy the fine weather, for as long as it lasts.:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

My concern is not with a shortage of drinking water (at least not initially) but with the dryness of the soil: without sufficient water, crops will not grow, and that will necessitate human intervention, so possibly leading to shortages, further-on down the line...?

And I see nothing in the models (neither short-range nor seasonal) that suggests a major pattern-change, so things are only set to get worse?

But, come what may, we should all enjoy the fine weather, for as long as it lasts.:oldgood:

I'm OK Pete, we are on a water meter, it costs to much just to run the taps here!! Yes good points made and by Azazel... Plenty of time to get the rain we need form August onwards. Mind you last year didn't deliver that much, even during that timeframe! Just had an idea the mods come June, may be naming the new thread..... The hunt for water!!!!  sorry Paul.... Regarding the models, even though its to early to say, there are some early signs of this set up becoming similar to this time last year!! Early days, but there is the possibility. 

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There's plenty of warm / very warm potential on the GEFS 6z for next week, the mean indicates a southerly air flow originating from southern europe, even north africa, becoming more humid too with an increasing chance of thundery showers..even the start of may could be warm and fine.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And now for something completely different - FV3: image.thumb.png.69bc7f25b5d6ed9a2921acd0835c129a.png:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There's plenty of warm / very warm potential on the GEFS 6z for next week, the mean indicates a southerly air flow originating from southern europe, even north africa, becoming more humid too with an increasing chance of thundery showers..even the start of may could be warm and fine.

Its just mad stuff frosty!just 2 days ago it looked destined for this current warm spell to end monday but its a completely different story now!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The GEFS 06Z temp ensemble - don't look at the op! image.thumb.png.3d5b50cabab78f9e56e11237e8f91d9f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

At the end of the 6z operational i spy with my little eye another Northerly brewing way to the north which will go the way of the pear like all the others before it...

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
3 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

There’s just no stopping that Eastern UK/Scandinavian High Pressure system at the moment. (And the same is the case from the 06Z GFS at 144 hours, where it looks mostly warm and settled). 

Nothing can seem to stand in the High’s way - including the Atlantic Lows!

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Reminiscent of summer 2018. Troughs getting cut-off to our south and west, warm continental air ruling over the UK.

Still enough wriggle-room for this to move back east so not a done deal - but currently favouring many days at 22C/23C to come - I'm guessing an absolute maximum of 25C?

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
17 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Reminiscent of summer 2018. Troughs getting cut-off to our south and west, warm continental air ruling over the UK.

Still enough wriggle-room for this to move back east so not a done deal - but currently favouring many days at 22C/23C to come - I'm guessing an absolute maximum of 25C?

I would think so. The more warmer, humid days with flows between the South and East could certainly support temperatures in the mid-twenties! Especially where skies are clear and sunny. 

As you mention though, there could always be a chance of the pattern moving back further East on the models allowing Lows from the West to invade more of the U.K with a risk of the warmer air getting mixed out. Particularly towards Western UK spots. Probably feel for now the pattern may not shift back further East, or at least maybe just a little nudge Eastwards. But you never know. Eastern UK blocking Highs never appear to be particularly easy to model, and the same for the way they handle Low Pressure to the West/South-West of the block.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Adding a bit more
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

looking at the clusters one would have to say that the trough is gaining some traction but I wouldn't like to put a lot of money on it

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Back to today. A lot of Cs and multi-layered Ac this morning, courtesy of the system to the south west, and it was blowing a hooligan with gusts in excess of 40 mph. The cloud then cleared and the wind abated but a veil of Cs is back again now. Solid cloud on the Brest sounding And with the sun out quite warm at St Mawgan at 1400 UTC with 19C

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Here's the ICON 12z as a GIF:

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I think having viewed the other models (morning runs) this may be overkill with the trough, but be that as it may it nicely illustrates the expected bounce back. 

Edited by Mike Poole
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