Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[Methuselah]

A possible 'short scorch' around next Friday? 

 

[Frosty.]

The 6z operational is insane, i'm in shock and awe after seeing that run!!

Edited April 17, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

If the Blue Meanies do stay away, until May 1st, the last fortnight of April will be a thing of beauty!

 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean looks great for easter (very warm and sunny) and i'm getting the impression, as others have also commented on that the warmth could persist through much of next week too, especially further east..maybe with increasing humidity and a chance of thundery showers and very warm spells of sunshine..quite a continental feel next week if things work out.

Edited April 17, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

And then, along comes the FV3 to play its joker: crud by around T+180:

 

And, unfortunately, the GEFS 06Z ensembles lends credence to the FV3's take:

[BlueHedgehog074]

10 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

If the Blue Meanies do stay away, until May 1st, the last fortnight of April will be a thing of beauty!

 

Certainly!

Don’t mind the Blue Meanies carrying out their invasion over us in Winter and early Spring, but it’s nice seeing the Yellow and Orange Friendlies fighting the Meanies away from the UK! 

And ar no! It looks like the Green Grinchies are trying to take over on that FV3 run! 

Edited April 17, 2019 by DiagonalRedLine

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Well what a lovely surprise in the models today with less being made of next weeks trough and the warmth lasting right out to the end of the 6z run with low 20c all the way. If gfs 6z came off I reckon yet another barmy 27 or 28c could be achieved in April.  I've noticed an ongoing trend so far this year that any wet stormy spell keeps getting downgraded resulting in just a day or so of light drizzle.. Wonder if this is just setting the pattern and aligning everything ready for another balmy summer?

Edited April 17, 2019 by 38.5*C

[Frosty.]

There have been so many arctic shots modelled on the GEFS / GFS so far this spring that I lost count ages ago and not one has ever come close to verifying!..pfft..give me P20 instead!!

Edited April 17, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Wow, wow and a big wow, the 6z keeps the fine warm Conditions going beyond even 10 days..... Just imagine this type of set up continuing till September!!! Parched Gardens will be all the fashion.. 

 

 

Coming soon to a place near you!!!! 

Edited April 17, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

6z Matt

[MATTWOLVES 3]

45 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

6z Matt

Cheers Karl, have corrected it, was gerrin overly excited.....

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Can any more experienced interpreters of model outputs explain why the signal for rain next week has disappeared within 12 hours?  Is it just a matter of the models over-reacting to a change in the global wind distribution, and they've now corrected it?  I'm getting very concerned that we'll be on standpipes and getting ready to evacuate from wildfires here in Norfolk if it stays dry from here right through the summer.  If nothing else, gardening will be nearly impossible and the cost of food in the shops will increase dramatically. 

[Methuselah]

Friday still looking good: 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Wow, wow and a big wow, the 6z keeps the fine warm Conditions going beyond even 10 days..... Just imagine this type of set up continuing till September!!! Parched Gardens will be all the fashion.. 

Wouldn’t be surprised Matt.  The ground is already cracking where I live due to the dry conditions.  If this continues and we get a classic hot pattern set up shop during mid-summer, then heat records are likely to be smashed IMO.

[4wd]

It's been mentioned before no doubt but the reason 1976 got so hot and dry was the dry winter and year before.
In 2003 Europe had extreme heat at least in part due to dry ground no longer soothing extremes as water changed state on a daily basis.
I'd not worry too much at this stage as dry spells in spring are common, and in most years there's a sudden switch even if we have to wait until European monsoon in June.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

Wouldn’t be surprised Matt.  The ground is already cracking where I live due to the dry conditions.  If this continues and we get a classic hot pattern set up shop during mid-summer, then heat records are likely to be smashed IMO.

Given how awful it was overnight here last year (30C overnight indoors despite having windows open until late), I'm genuinely worried as to how bad it could get here if we see over 40C.

[Frosty.]

Shirley the Gfs can't be serious about these cloud amounts for Good Friday!!..  I've seen forecasts showing unbroken sunshine for friday.

[Methuselah]

A well-timed four-day sunny/warm spell:

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational appears to be following the incredible 6z so far in keeping it warm well into next week.

Edited April 17, 2019 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z operational appears to be following the incredible 6z so far in keeping it warm well into next week.

Aye normal April setup, seems to undercut keeping the E'ly winds, thought the earlier models were too progressive with the Atlantic, some looked very January like

[MATTWOLVES 3]

38 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Can any more experienced interpreters of model outputs explain why the signal for rain next week has disappeared within 12 hours?  Is it just a matter of the models over-reacting to a change in the global wind distribution, and they've now corrected it?  I'm getting very concerned that we'll be on standpipes and getting ready to evacuate from wildfires here in Norfolk if it stays dry from here right through the summer.  If nothing else, gardening will be nearly impossible and the cost of food in the shops will increase dramatically. 

Personally Chris, I think sometimes the models do backtrack at short notice. Let's face it, we see these glorious winter charts backtrack constantly to be downgraded.... I think high pressure will be proving stubborn to shift... Whether it be a euro slug type high pressure or heights remaining over scandy! Once these scenarios begin to take place it can become very difficult to break the pattern down. I am also of the belief that low solar minimum is also playing quite a large effect on the jet stream, and coupled with the fact its at one of its weakest points right now.. Perhaps its being multiplied. I understand your concerns regarding drought, but at this stage I wouldn't get overly concerned.... We all know how suddenly a pattern can quickly change! If we have a repeat of last year, I will be shocked, but you just can't rule it out with the current amount of warming going on around the planet.... Definitely worth keeping in tune to the Netweather forum, has we have some excellent climate and meteorological analizers.

Edited April 17, 2019 by Mattwolves

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, Mattwolves said:

Personally Chris, I think sometimes the models do backtrack at short notice. Let's face it, we see this glorious winter charts backtrack constantly to be downgraded.... I think high pressure will be proving stubborn to shift... Whether it be a euro slug type high pressure or heights remaining over scandy! Once these scenarios begin to take place it can become very difficult to break the pattern down. I am also of the belief that low solar minimum is also playing quite a large effect on the jet stream, and coupled with the fact its at one of its weakest points right now.. Perhaps its being multiplied. I understand your concerns regarding drought, but at this stage I wouldn't get overly concerned.... We all know how suddenly a pattern can quickly change! If we have a repeat of last year, I will be shocked, but you just can't rule it out with the current amount of warming going on around the planet.... Definitely worth keeping in tune to the Netweather forum, has we have some excellent climate and meteorological analizers.

I'm inclined to agree, but I have to admit I'm surprised that, at this time of the year, the models seem to have switched almost 180 degrees over around 12 hours at around t+142.  Cheers for your comment, though.

[Methuselah]

Warmth still going strong by mid-week:

  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

28 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Shirley the Gfs can't be serious about these cloud amounts for Good Friday!!..  I've seen forecasts showing unbroken sunshine for friday.

Yeh, seems a bit far fetched Karl... I'm seeing largely unbroken sunshine for many... That chart looks like North Sea cloud as spilled westwards and refused to break up... I think these cloud amounts are over the top! And Im sure you agree.

Edited April 17, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

Incredible, maybe the 6z wasn't a fluke, the 12z looks warm and probably increasingly humid next week with continental air and a risk of thunderstorms between the very warm sunshine..warmest further east and south / southeast.

Edited April 17, 2019 by Frosty.