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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Another forward look to summer courtesy of CFS.  JUNE!

Last 9 runs Z500 anomaly, monthly averaged:

image.thumb.jpg.64467be1496e3e12b8c96dc0d357d57f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.d293af1c9aed920b41fe86e8aad068f3.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.95befbf99d25791d2ae0e82252affe59.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.39adaa5c9ad25a4f61452530e9b7edce.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.fbbca0794711a6850d36e2d4df592af0.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.9e4dcb2a24942ad24d78218cc1266b9f.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.6baf036513a62f009c28154a974b7633.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ca7fd59c4caa25727f0985a6c88c5a38.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.937fdf55bb334fb3b1097c40a4b59846.jpg

None of these suggests higher chances of a poor summer, quite the reverse.  Now here the 2m temperature anomalies for the last 5 runs for June.

image.thumb.jpg.12f7093f46a6da2429303baf4b479f71.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.8e02066d3d017d298202dee909393c1d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.e6cf10a959c0f5b6305eab6c236a0e82.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.440ecd8bffdd7e5ba6e6aa30a4dec15d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.56ec52b8ae94117880a0b2ae19903e52.jpg

Again I'm struck by the consistency of these plots, anyone betting on a cool wet summer should tear up their betting slips now...?

cant remove the chart below posted in error...

image.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And FWIW, the 12Z Ensemble points toward nothing in particular!:unknw:

 

image.thumb.png.10d5fe3e57cf90d63bacb35a5f06fce2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
2 hours ago, 38.5*C said:

That trough looks worrying. The kind of set up that led to the poorest cyclonic Atlantics of our weather lately eg May to August 2012, June 2016. I guess there is some real punishment to pay for our recent weather lately and very soon this dry spell will end.  Hopefully (and more likely) is that trough will detach itself and slide down across Western Europe and down into North Africa and any unsettled spell will not last long.            

I wouldn't worry, the weather doesn't have a quota and I think the assumption that we will pay for it in the Summer is gamblers fallacy.

Remember, April 2003 was a great month and preceded a great summer. There have been plenty of other fine April's before hot summers. I think when everyone thinks of a fine April, they instantly think of 2007.... lol

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
55 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening! Yes there was a Wintry outbreak across some parts of the Uk during April 4th, West Midlands and Wales got a Significant Covering....and it made news headlines!  Anyway for the outlook, Lots of Sahara dust here in todays front.... Warming up for a day or two but a short lived warm spell , by Sunday/Monday the Atlantic creeps in, I say creep because the Blocking is still in place to our northeast... But the outlook for next week looks Yuk! Wet, cold and windy depending where you are.  Perhaps ,  Some Thunderstorms  as the weather next week breaks down...

Snow in the west midlands!!! On the news??? This must have featured on.... Not the 9 o'clock news... As it certainly didn't snow around these parts! And Yeh, next week looking cooler, certainly not cold away from the North! Fair play to you for making such far fetched forecasts.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean day 10 chart doesn't scream unsettled to me..more of a whimper really!

EDM1-240.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Snow in the west midlands!!! On the news??? This must have featured on.... Not the 9 o'clock news... As it certainly didn't snow around these parts! And Yeh, next week looking cooler, certainly not cold away from the North! Fair play to you for making such far fetched forecasts.

And what ever happened to those 'record lows'? Some of us can still remember the week following April 11 1978...-10C?:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

 

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And what ever happened to those 'record lows'? Some of us can still remember the week following April 11 1978...-10C?:oldgrin:

It goes in one ear, and out of the next... I get excited when I see the express headlines.... Then I quickly realize its jackanory.... And its all about selling papers!! Nothing else.... Sensationalist claims may look good... But not so good when that person is asked to back them up with hard evidence!

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
22 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I wouldn't worry, the weather doesn't have a quota and I think the assumption that we will pay for it in the Summer is gamblers fallacy.

Remember, April 2003 was a great month and preceded a great summer. There have been plenty of other fine April's before hot summers. I think when everyone thinks of a fine April, they instantly think of 2007.... lol

Indeed. April 2003 also ended very unsettled and most of May was unsettled until the closing days. Summer was then glorious.

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
41 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

 

It goes in one ear, and out of the next... I get excited when I see the express headlines.... Then I quickly realize its jackanory.... And its all about selling papers!! Nothing else.... Sensationalist claims may look good... But not so good when that person is asked to back them up with hard evidence!

Lol I certainly didn’t have any snow either in fact it was probably one of the crapest winters iv ever known here tbh despite all the background signals etc etc, so anybody panicking about what the summers going to be like would be better to just wait and see there will I’m sure be some decent weather along with the usual breakdowns..time will tell but there imo is absolutely no point in looking further than 7 days at the most

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The NH 500mb profile (the cut off upper low to our south west is in the process of becoming a reality) and the Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0400 UTC UK chart

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.2e31e79fc8c708e01f4eece43702fd50.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.402bca8ee4dca9cc8274ff0f8c77121c.gif04.thumb.gif.ea7a1c0df866bb01078152e996117dad.gif

The fronts over the country are slowly becoming a non feature but there is a lot of moisture around in the atmosphere and thus quite a bit of Stratus and mist/fog as can be seen on the chart above.And still some bits and bobs of patchy rain over western Scotland. But all of this should clear through the morning giving a sunny and warm day for most with perhaps the odd isolated shower in central/eastern areas of England. Still the onshore breeze effecting temps along coastal regions.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.e847851b3203b311c8abac8dd8e80f2b.gif1675248438_maxw.thumb.png.11f5a98bbe10ce26ac9cfa2d57a00d44.pngbreeze.thumb.png.fb2da49e80abb0357caf19521daaf33e.png

The Stratus/mist will return in many areas tonight and the former may well drift in along the coasts but generally frost free

PPVG89.thumb.gif.b4f4f6a1ad52851f1d146c7ec20b1d91.gif

By Tomorrow the cut off upper low mentioned earlier is established and it's warming up nicely, albeit still the caveat vis eastern coastal regions

gfs_z500_vort_natl_7.thumb.png.c77b7c05ae3dc3843812d60b11b0801f.pngPPVI89.thumb.gif.16ebeddad20cb64f264941cf5e2f869b.gif1623681817_maxt.thumb.png.59366a46dfe501ea99cd210fd3bf145a.png

Little change over Thursday night through Friday which is set to be a very warm day with the usual caveat. But worth noting that systems in the Atlantic are taking closer order

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.8f74337d196895691a434260c52b36b9.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.be3e9b8298a7c93d268663e3fd784f27.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.5eb9eda85930058745807ad45af113e8.png

Over Saturday and Sunday the changes upstream that have been alluded too previously are taking place, with the Bermuda high amplifying and a fragment of the vortex ejected into the Denmark straits as a lot of energy sweeps east south of Greenland. Illustrated below

gfs_z500_vort_natl_15.thumb.png.b536c60a1f8956ef4e958048e89d94e1.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_19.thumb.png.bf98449be10c863bd5e08a6e61cf3efc.pnggfs_uv250_natl_19.thumb.png.50c973a32fc2e648bc4182ae37a29f2e.png

All of this has mo immediate effect on the weather over most of the country over the weekend but a weak cold front tracking south east across N. Ireland and Scotland will bring some cloud and patchy rain to these regions. But generally another couple of warm and sunny days and even the eastern coastal regions included but having said that, decidedly 'chilly' in NE Scotland on Sunday

PPVM89.thumb.gif.7c68e3f8d57bbd2c1ca2e1bd57532378.gifPPVO89.thumb.gif.6b05244a8ab90f8fe81ee6dacd142ec6.gif

gfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.573494fac931e70b93e659508231582f.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.1b4509fc3302fc0e4faed6f3cbc5054f.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

There is apparently still some uncertainty vis the evolution from this point so moving forward with the gfs should be treated with some caution.

By Monday the gfs continues to reassert the amplification of the subtropical high zones, (Atlantic and Europe) and thus 'trapping' the Icelandic trough in mid Atlantic. Ergo another very warm and sunny day, albeit the onshore breeze is back. And by Tuesday yet another cut off upper low has been established west of Iberia with the UK staying warm and sunny, apart of course from the east coast. Best left here I feel

gfs_z500_vort_natl_23.thumb.png.1ff8412dccbf51866d62f46dae676b79.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_27.thumb.png.4dc3987cc6d192bd25c05d4e76671047.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This is the ecm interpretation which is different as can be seen but still very warm Monday/Tuesday albeit the surface trough creeps near to the south wes thus

  t132.thumb.png.d712f88fb809cc6f9c2dc14073becdc0.pngt156.thumb.png.cb8d3e1c04dcf673d52456d5f4beecef.pngtrough.thumb.png.8cf98024c93be83bacf952d40a4431f1.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Beautiful!!!..you want it warmer?..the Ecm 00z delivers

48_mslp500.png

48_thickuk.png

72_mslp500.png

72_thickuk.png

72_mslp850.png

96_mslp500.png

96_mslp850.png

96_thickuk.png

120_mslp850.png

120_thickuk.png

144_thickuk.png

144_mslp850.png

168_thickuk.png

168_mslp850.png

One thing of note this morning gfs and ecm have extended this warm spell well into next week with a breakdown being pushed back!!infact all the talk of this weekend being warm but early mid next week could be close to hot and humid!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The 00Z op keeps us fine/warm until T+324: 

image.thumb.png.2aeaf176c510973b2494d1abde93e1fb.pngimage.thumb.png.23afd01fa1d4fd4190488646cc1cd642.png

The FV3 has the promise of some much-needed rain by T+159 and again at T+384:

image.thumb.png.36a26c400cc58a187256fc4c3dbcbe93.pngimage.thumb.png.ea50b176079d2820beccabf623c20dde.png

And the 00Z ensemble shows temps peaking around the 27th, and subsequent cool down; the op does end-up on the colder side, however:

image.thumb.png.459892bdf1620ce4a8725321a5d8bbec.png

PS: I don't know why the editor reorders my images???

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

It's quite tricky (well I think so) trying to pin down the direction of travel of the evolution at the moment. Looking at the EPS mean anomalies over the last three days there are some indications of a change of emphasis, as seen with the amplification of the subtropical zones and the the trough betwixt both. And everything has shifted a tad west creating a slack pressure (probably) over much of the UK. The details will have to wait but temps probably a little above average

9-14.thumb.png.c3a611944fe148ada8dc95ed166236ab.png6-11.thumb.png.24a10f4683acffa55ea4a3238dafa265.png

Last evening's NOAA is in the same ball park

814day_03.thumb.gif.4638c33bb3bfda72515ede3967c3872e.gif

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Amazing ECM  usually when it's winter we have a cold spell flagged up, and it backtracks on the overnight runs! Now we have the cooler unsettled conditions back tracking.... It looks just.... As Karl would say..... Perfick!!! 

ECM0-96.gif

ECM0-120.gif

ECM0-168.gif

ECM0-192.gif

ECM0-216.gif

hot_hot_hot-DMID1-5hw5ue1uh-360x270.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO again shows the high losing its grip on the UK later this weekend however just how much rain makes it to the east is open to debate the west certainly looks like it'll turn wetter

ukm2.2019042112_108_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.966fc16dbfd1affbbb2eb7e02c23bf81.pngukm2.2019042200_120_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.59a32e241fde71ee78a53364de43119e.png

ukm2.2019042300_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.49b59449f8ab4028858c07aca31359be.pngukm2.2019042400_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.792633c4079efe3af3729a3d31c5c23a.png

The next few days sees temperatures increasing with the peak on Saturday where we've an outside chance of 25c

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.534e8b07df01dcef34cf72abca1807a4.pngukmaxtemp1.thumb.png.5114e768d9f9272ec882994cc4e9f7fd.png

ukmaxtemp2.thumb.png.26ff04fe504206aecf2b5500b4604015.pngukmaxtemp3.thumb.png.4a754f6cacede4f7c613d12073d6ac43.png

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Big thanks for your follow-on from my post yesterday @Tamara .

Glad to see the trough adjusted west or southwest by the 00z runs as I suspected it would - I can see just enough Nino ‘flavour’ hanging on in the atmosphere to encourage the trough to be over that way instead of in line with or east of the UK. This being how the cycling of the GWO in the positive phases tends to bring about a spring-summertime regime of ridges building near or over the UK, then heading to our east or northeast while troughs destabilise conditions, sometimes with a heat plume involved. 

Some will grin at this potential. Usual caveats apply of course (such as assuming no major complications arise...).

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is....

perfick.jpg

F1E4CD7A-ED68-496F-9C37-A166975CEDAA.gif.b4e6f22aad13edd1c74905175d85f0e3.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And the weekend looks: image.thumb.png.fa5300a3e35337c6b94a3f5fefdbc857.pngimage.thumb.png.b028d4692d921d084613880ba93b0ceb.png

Over to you, Tony!          image.thumb.png.2c80c326084229fdb3e943fadb6da11c.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Aaaaand the warmth continues well.into next week on the 06z same as the 00z ecm and gfs!!looks like both models have picked up on the extension of this current warm spell out of no where this morning!!just yesterday it looked like it was gona be all over by monday!!brilliant stuff☀️

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Looking good, with the trough staying out west. For now, anyway::oldgood:

image.thumb.png.c462d967bb8dedf0212a550bebf4a3a9.pngimage.thumb.png.a901c2380a18f5766579b080abb5bdd5.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

When I said the Ecm 00z mean is perfick..this is what I mean, get it..mean

EDM1-72.GIF

EDM0-72.GIF

EDM1-96.GIF

EDM0-96.GIF

EDM1-120.GIF

EDM0-120.GIF

140f624e690734fce63df63271505462--ricky-gervais-comedy.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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