Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[Polar Maritime]

Certainly scope for temps to touch 21/22c somewhere this Bank Holiday weekend, With some nice settled weather on offer. Thereafter into Wk2 the Models certainly showing the Atlantic pushing through as the Jet Stream fires up over the UK, Bringing with it a much cooler/unsettled flow in from the W/NW.

 

[Summer Sun]

Given the UKs history with bank holiday weather this one is looking eggceptional and with the tendency GFS has to underestimate temps I wouldn't rule out an isolated 24 or 25c.

Monday sees a change to fresher air and some heavy rain but the SE clings on to one more warm day with the rain not arriving here until much later in the day

[Methuselah]

Tuesday, touch wood, might even herald the arrival of some much-needed rain?

With reasonable temperatures throughout: 

Edited April 15, 2019 by Ed Stone

[MP-R]

Seems to be a common theme of the final third of April to become more unsettled after a mid month settled spell. This year no exception. Hopefully another build of pressure can occur in time for the May bank holiday rather than a full on Atlantic onslaught like the 2011-2015 period.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows really summery weather later this week with temps into the low 20's celsius so eggsellent timing for easter but then remembering it is only april, it does trend more unsettled later.

Edited April 15, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

Saturday's still looking good!

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z operational shows a gradually improving picture this week, especially by the time we get to the Easter weekend..looks eggsellent for many compared to recent times.

[Methuselah]

I guess there'll be few complaints about Monday, either?

 

[Frosty.]

Breaking news. There is a chance of mid 20's celsius at the end of this week..watch this space!!!!

[Methuselah]

Not only has the threat (for now) of an Atlantic breakthrough gone, we have a LP moving westwards from the nearby continent...?

 

[Singularity]

GLAAM is taking a brief dive before reloading back to +ve tendency as the Nino base state asserts itself more again.

I've found the strength of the polar jet's westerly burst across the N. Atlantic to be a bit too dramatic in most of the recent model output; I'm not convinced it will be enough to fully displace high pressure away from the UK. The models often overdo the pattern response to the AAM tendency turning negative while the anomalies are +ve. More of a stalemate seems probable to me, with rain bands from the west or southwest struggling to make it far across the UK.

GFS 06z looks a bit of an over-correction to me, unless the Nino base state is now looking to reassert itself more quickly than has been anticipated. 

[Methuselah]

There's little doubt as to where the FV3 is headed:

 

[Methuselah]

It certainly took its time, in getting back to almost how it started:

 

And, as per usual, there's a degree of ambiguity within the ensemble:

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Breaking news. There is a chance of mid 20's celsius at the end of this week..watch this space!!!!

06z GFS goes nowhere near the mid 20s, only shows around 20C all weekend and a little bit wee rainy & cloudy due to a cold upper pool in the South.

Edited April 15, 2019 by 38.5*C

[Frosty.]

20 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

06z GFS goes nowhere near the mid 20s, only shows around 20C all weekend.

It was nothing to do with the gfs, the bbc weather mentioned possible mid 20's c on sunday..as for the gfs, it seems to underestimate maxima by several degrees sometimes so I'm thinking 20c on good friday, 22c saturday and then potentially 23-25c sunday, maybe low 20's c for easter monday depending on cloud / sunshine  amounts but the air mass later this week will be sourced from the med. 

 

 

Edited April 15, 2019 by Frosty.

[Mapantz]

18 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

06z GFS goes nowhere near the mid 20s, only shows around 20C all weekend and a little bit wee rainy & cloudy due to a cold upper pool in the South.

The GFS is on it's own regarding that. In fact, the OP is an outlier for precipitation.

23°C on the higher res model. If that continues to show, you can always add on a degree or two.

[cheeky_monkey]

48 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

06z GFS goes nowhere near the mid 20s, only shows around 20C all weekend and a little bit wee rainy & cloudy due to a cold upper pool in the South.

this shows 24c in Northern Scotland though? isnt that the mid 20s?

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean looks great for easter and there is some warm potential further ahead too.

[Interitus]

4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Not only has the threat (for now) of an Atlantic breakthrough gone, we have a LP moving westwards from the nearby continent...?

 

Interesting feature that has been meandering round Scandinavia and northwest Russia since our deep low a couple of weeks ago, and the partial remnants of a tropopause polar cyclone from Canada prior to this (see https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1113003251077656576). It is currently over Belarus and the southern Baltic states and is due to circle the Scandi high before hitting the UK next week in the above charts.

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

this shows 24c in Northern Scotland though? isnt that the mid 20s?

Although it looks like a 24c I think Mid 20s for that part of North Scotland would be a record for April?  

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Although it looks like a 24c I think Mid 20s for that part of North Scotland would be a record for April?  

I think it's London and the southeast that has a chance of 23/24c..possibly 25c 77f on saturday / sunday..probably Heathrow airport or kew gardens..potentially the peak of the upcoming much warmer spell.

Edited April 15, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Plenty of warm fine conditions to come throughout the next 7 days, things possibly going downhill by early mid next week, low pressure becoming a prominent player at this stage..... In the meantime, enjoy the vibes folks!!! Shades at the ready. 

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12h looks very summery later this week, just signs of a change to the northwest at T+144 hours but lots of warm / very warm dry and increasingly sunny weather to enjoy as we enter the easter period.

[knocker]

During next weekend which promises to be fine for most, changes are afoot upstream A fragment of the vortex breaks off south of Greenland as the Bermuda high amplifies once again. This amplification reverberates downstream with a negatively tilted trough dominating the eastern atlantic and a sharp division between the cold and warm air.

This scenario fits in pretty well with last night's EPS anomaly so await tonights

[Frosty.]

Magnificent Gfs 12z operational for later this week including the easter weekend with temps into the low 20's celsius widely!!..impressive for april!