Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

High pressure losing control by day 8 on the ECM . I’m with a few others on here we need rain the ground is so dry here . 

Its a good point ice, their are some signs of more unsettled conditions towards months end! How long it lasts I much less certain of! 

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

@Mike Poole you say summer in your opinion is May, June, July, but August is very often the month that throws up the most heat! So I would say very much a main summer month? 

Not in recent years, Matt, last time was 2003, since then Augusts have been a bit rubbish, but in trying to form a view about the summer, it is easier if you discount the final month as it is so difficult to predict given the timescale.  That is not to say trying to predict May June and July is much easier!!  Why some of us including me try as a hobby is beyond me! 

Edited April 14, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yeh, that's what I thought, August last year run out of steam, but is very often a time of the year when heat records can be smashed.

Yes, August 1990 and 2003 are both good examples of this.  37.1C recorded 3rd August 1990 in Gloucester and 38.5C in Faversham (Kent) on 10th August 2003.  I wonder if 40C will be breached this summer?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Frosty. said:

The thing about August is it often brings some autumnal september type atlantic weather which is possibly what mike was thinking?..anyway the Ecm 12z is a beauty, becomes warmer and warmer with plenty of sunshine and high pressure, warmest possibly Easter Monday further e / se?

Yes indeed  countryfile just gave an absolute belter, low 20s.....its barbecue and suntan cream at the ready..... Could be glorious away from the far NW! 

[SizzlingHeat]

Not convinced the pressure will drop so very quickly over the coming weekend as shown on the ECM. Seems very progressive to go with a 1030mb high to less than 1015mb in 24 hours. Seems a bit excessive and far more progressive than any other model this evening. Perplexed

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I tell you what folks..... Trust me we when I say this.... You don't need Wikipedia..... We have Don for stats..... And he is much better..... Cheers Don

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Not in recent years, Matt, last time was 2003, since then Augusts have been a bit rubbish, but in trying to form a view about the summer, it is easier if you discount the final month as it is so difficult to predict given the timescale.  That is not to say trying to predict May June and July is much easier!!  Why some of us including me try as a hobby is beyond me! 

Stick with it Mike your doing a grand job, forums need posters like yourself.... And me also..... Obviously..... And Karl and Pete for entertainment value....

[Frosty.]

Bank..nice warm up

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Stick with it Mike your doing a grand job, forums need posters like yourself.... And me also..... Obviously..... And Karl and Pete for entertainment value....

Just make sure you don't squirt suntan cream onto your hotdog, Matt!

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Bank..nice warm up

Is that Puff The Magic Dragon?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Bank..nice warm up

 

 

 

 

Aye but I don't like it frosty, another suggestion of a trough coming down from the north, on GEM and GFS too

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Icon looks glorious folks.... Low 20s no probs..... Its gonna be a long and beautiful weekend..... Don't do anything I wouldn't do..... Sun can make you do strange things! 

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye but I don't like it frosty, another suggestion of a trough coming down from the north, on GEM and GFS too

 

Not concerned, Easter looks glorious..big warm up coming!.

[Summerstorm]

23 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Not in recent years, Matt, last time was 2003, since then Augusts have been a bit rubbish, but in trying to form a view about the summer, it is easier if you discount the final month as it is so difficult to predict given the timescale.  That is not to say trying to predict May June and July is much easier!!  Why some of us including me try as a hobby is beyond me! 

Thanks for dredging up the statistics Mike was going to comment something along these lines as well. I don't have the balls to call the summer myself but i appreciate you having a go.. Although the other do have a point that there can be more extreme injections of heat with higher temps in August these often seem to be plume set ups and generally don't last as long compared to some longer settled and warmer spells in July that sometimes come off.

Anyway moving on from that debate now i'm going to do some analysis of the model output from today so far and hopefully i make some sense 

As others have said the ECM goes from this : 

To this in 24 hours :

Seems a bit progressive as others have said and these Scandi/Euro highs usually like to cling as long as they can. Although it could be on to something who knows!

Compare this to the ICON at 180 hrs and it has the HP a little more in charge and is a little less progressive albeit we can't see the 192hrs chart but i'd imagine the LP wouldn't be as influential as with the LP system than the ECM. 

The GFS seems to be signing to the tune of the ECM also although maybe it's a little less progressive with the low and it is attacking at a slightly different angle and that could make all the difference. 

The question is are they being overly progressive and emphasising the LP system and Westerly's too much and resorting to usual bias or have they latched onto a trend for it to become more unsettled after the weekend before maybe another similar spell occurs down the line. The second option is of course a middle ground where the LP isn't being overegged by the Models or final option is they are overdoing Westerly signals yet again and HP will remain in charge for the foreseeable. All to play for at the moment as the summer is still some time away and things may set up more favourably for a more prolonged spell if this upcoming settled spell doesn't last down the line. 

Edited April 14, 2019 by Summerstorm

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Not concerned, Easter looks glorious..big warm up coming!.

I'm with you on this Karl... Glorious Bank Holiday to come.... I'm not fazed by a trough beyond that... Its a long summer road ahead, and we are bound to encounter a few speed bumps along the way.... But the road is long and we will get many repeats of fine and very warm conditions!

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm with you on this Karl... Glorious Bank Holiday to come.... I'm not fazed by a trough beyond that... Its a long summer road ahead, and we are bound to encounter a few speed bumps along the way.... But the road is long and we will get many repeats of fine and very warm conditions!

Indeed, it's a bonus to get summery weather in april, recently the models looked iffy for easter but now they look great for at least most of the long holiday weekend..shorts and t-shirts at the ready!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Indeed, it's a bonus to get summery weather in april, recently the models looked iffy for easter but now they look great for at least most of the long holiday weekend..shorts and t-shirts at the ready!

and flip flops!

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean becomes warmer and settled, much warmer than we've become used to so Easter itself looks summery but towards the end of the run it does trend more unsettled and cooler but that doesn't take any gloss off the week ahead!

Edited April 14, 2019 by Frosty.

[damianslaw]

Yes, a significant warm up from mid-week onwards from a late winter feel to an early summer feel.. as high pressure reorientates itself and pulls in much warmer continental air. Temps widely into the high-teens and low 20's by the weekend - perfect timing for easter.

Longer term - I was reading an interesting post mentioning the ENSO base state is currently conducive to strong scandi high, with trough anchored to the west and crucially far enough north to prevent heights retrogressing to the NW, a weak El Nino set up, however, this doesn't usually bring in a strong azores high to boot, unlike last May-July which saw a weak La Nina, and the azores high was able to link up with scandi heights. Consequently the current output on offer by ECM and GFS seems very plausible, the trough anchoring itself down through the UK but splitting and elongating - with azores high pushed NW, but importantly the scandi high remains in residence, hence a rinse and repeat pattern may become a common feature of the latter part of spring and early part of summer at least - which would mean lengthy warm sunny spell, interspersed with wetter cooler conditions, the former perhaps dominating more than the latter - but in time the latter may gain the upper hand. We shall see.

Edited April 15, 2019 by Blessed Weather
Unwanted quote box removed.

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening All ! Threes things to say tonight....Staying cold in the next couple of days, Warming up towards Easter with a Possible 21c . and perhaps a thundery breakdown during the late Easter period...?

[Summer Sun]

00z UKMO shows the chance of some rain for part of the country during Easter Sunday and Easter Monday as low pressure north of the UK slowly wins out

Good Friday and Saturday both look settled

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye, these models bring SS out with his extended UKMO, only when it shows unsettled it seems

but aye, poor models todays 00Z's, horrible end to April

[Frosty.]

22-23c later this week!..a very good friday..and saturday..etc..etc

[Earthshine]

13 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

@Mike Poole you say summer in your opinion is May, June, July, but August is very often the month that throws up the most heat! So I would say very much a main summer month? 

I'd even go as far as saying September is a summer month (despite being meteorological autumn).  Sun is still quite strong and temperatures are generally similar to that of June.

[Summer Sun]

00z ECM looking better with any rain not until Easter Monday giving us 3 fine and warm days

Easter Monday see rain moving in from the north west with those further east stay drier longer

Edited April 15, 2019 by Summer Sun