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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

12Z quicker to get rid of the easterly: image.thumb.png.63e3d5a64d3af34ad296a0a52af89c6c.png:oldgood:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The ukmo continues to look a lot warmer than it did yesterday regarding later next week..easter..exquisite / eggsellent timing

UW72-21.gif

UW96-21.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW120-7.gif

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The ukmo continues to look a lot warmer than it did yesterday regarding later next week..easter..exquisite / eggsellent timing

UW72-21.gif

UW96-21.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW120-7.gif

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

Friday looks good! image.thumb.png.c42a94f886fba1dc4d7c95fa18aa9482.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Saturday should be positively spiffing: image.thumb.png.a60e94a3cc8669eb37bae67060add91c.png:oldgood:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Saturday should be positively spiffing: image.thumb.png.a60e94a3cc8669eb37bae67060add91c.png:oldgood:

I like the way the winds then change to SE'ly and perhaps even S'ly... looks really pleasant.

12_174_mslp850.png

12_174_ukthickness850.png

12_174_uk2mtmp.png

12_216_windvector.png

12_216_uk2mtmp.png

12_216_ukthickness850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I like the way the winds then change to SE'ly and perhaps even S'ly... looks really pleasant.

12_174_mslp850.png

12_174_ukthickness850.png

12_174_uk2mtmp.png

12_216_windvector.png

12_216_uk2mtmp.png

12_216_ukthickness850.png

Is that a nice wee trough forming, in precisely the desired location?

image.thumb.png.7ba84c2591bbd7aa76a893fc6507d83f.png

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

Yes, I think there was consensus yesterday for a decent settled and warm Easter weekend and that is firmed up today.  Where we go then is interesting, GFS 12z at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.bb11e9271769b68605bf8af6671ba4ef.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.420bc321cdd6bac3cf7851b2480d5526.jpg

Looks like an interruption of sorts before more settled weather will maybe return.  The interruption looking less than on yesterday's runs.

GEM at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.d5743ebf7e87c8060c10670ca2f8d520.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.24034abdc4ef97323855c0020e86f725.jpg

Edit: Only out to T192 but I prefer he FV3 evolution:

image.thumb.jpg.cfe47fb9608f2bde65901095349d0cb9.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Is that a nice wee trough forming, in precisely the desired location?

image.thumb.png.7ba84c2591bbd7aa76a893fc6507d83f.png

The jet looks a bit different to the usual Ed

hgt300.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Popular Post
Posted

Just what I like to see: heat to our SE and troughing in the Atlantic...long may it continue!

image.thumb.png.0427bc7a88b580693fabd507fc6ad61e.pngimage.thumb.png.27db4ef10c30d62f47a0a2435bbceecc.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
Just now, Frosty. said:

The jet looks a bit different to the usual Ed

hgt300.png

Just how we like it?:oldgood:

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Awesome GFS 12z, even out to beyond 300hrs.....these charts make me think of 2 things folks!!!!!!! 

gfs-0-324.png

gfs-1-324 (1).png

giphy.gif

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Just what I like to see: heat to our SE and troughing in the Atlantic...long may it continue!

image.thumb.png.0427bc7a88b580693fabd507fc6ad61e.pngimage.thumb.png.27db4ef10c30d62f47a0a2435bbceecc.png

Indeed, a trough digging well south to the west is very welcome at this time of year and especially summer as it acts to scoop up continental warmth into the uk.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean it's high pressure for Easter so it should be fine and gradually warmer.

GFSAVGEU12_144_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_168_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_216_2.png

GFSAVGEU12_240_2.png

GFSAVGEU12_246_5.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

It is indeed, Karl. And, who needs an Atlantic trough, anyway!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.46421bcf4c215d441bc24039dc3289b5.pngimage.thumb.png.9307e9a2c340479bcec867d6466f0c39.png 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Heads up all you cold crew.... This one's for you..... 

gfs-0-324 (1).png

gfs-1-324 (2).png

tenor.gif

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Heads up all you cold crew.... This one's for you..... 

 

 

tenor.gif

Indeed, the final series of Game of Thrones..can't wait..looking at the models, think it's looking better south of the wall, especially by easter.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

The Grinch that stole Christmas, and gave it back in April!

 

image.thumb.png.ad35637ea3e67ad07a5af7538502f019.pngimage.thumb.png.b9535d7ef9899d5351281303618c11fe.png 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, the final series of Game of Thrones..can't wait..looking at the models, think it's looking better south of the wall, especially by easter.

Tbh Karl it's not really the weather I want to see at this stage of April anyway, I love it when the season is right for it but I always like to bring a bit of variety to my posts, and to bring the ones who love cold at anytime a bit of hope. Very unlikely to come off... But by the end of the year I hope it becomes the normal, even though I remember Atlantic always claims its not possible, due to a raging vortex.... Etc, etc, etc.... Blah blah blah

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I think I'll stick with the ensemble. :oldgood:image.thumb.png.03b64079ff84742a88da70094060c60f.png 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Looking beyond Easter..let's accentuate the positives

2_384_2mtmpmax.png

2_384_850tmp.png

8_384_850tmp.png

8_384_2mtmpmax.png

19_384_850tmp.png

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

The main thing I'm looking at now is a shift of the jetstream north...Easter is going to be great for most of the country. bank!  But is it a flash in the pan or a major pattern change?   

FV3 takes the jet northerly at T372 and timely with Game of Thrones season 8 imminent, it looks a bit like a dragon, small wings though if I'm honest, guess better budgets at HBO than NOAA

image.thumb.jpg.003e0c799802dd11e288328b2456d6f7.jpg

GFS at T384:

image.thumb.jpg.65f5569e6730b11fd3acba5d41eca87e.jpg

Meanwhile, medium term, the ECM is a stonker for warmth into the weekend, at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.c9f9096fe7a36f4d071ca73744960679.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.6e1f091e1786d9b7c9a26192f1272cdf.jpg

Big flip to warm gathering momentum at various timescale I would suggest!

 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.8fbc9877c85f25f3446c7856d264926e.jpg

REPEAT!  The possible unsettled period between warm settled spells continues to get watered down,  roll on early summer.

Edited by Mike Poole
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