Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[Methuselah]

A smidge of a chance, of a snow-grain or two hitting the ground, tomorrow. No more than that?

 

[Earthshine]

3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

They are perturbations, individual runs... Its unlikely it will quite pan out that way!! Those runs Indicate the best case scenario, so try not to get your hopes up to much! I mean I could throw this at you, doesn't mean it will verify though! 

Yeah but the suggestion is still there we will get a continental feed of air is it not?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Yeah but the suggestion is still there we will get a continental feed of air is it not?

Yes indeed, there are suggestions in the mid term! There are also suggestions of more unsettled conditions and temps of around average has we go deeper into the month and beyond. 

[Frosty.]

26 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Suggesting mid-70s!   Proper BBQ weather that is.  Do you expect we'll see quite large diurnals with that set-up (i.e. flow off the continent)?

I would like to think we will have a flow off the warming continent, it looks like we will see a change to SE'ly winds with temperatures approaching 20c further south later next week coinciding with easter..nights would probably still be a bit chilly but not to the extent we are seeing this week and the upcoming weekend.

[Frosty.]

Well the ukmo 12h has thrown a spanner in the works and shows a cooler easterly continuing next week.

Edited April 12, 2019 by Frosty.

[Summerstorm]

21 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes indeed, there are suggestions in the mid term! There are also suggestions of more unsettled conditions and temps of around average has we go deeper into the month and beyond. 

Not sure where you are getting unsettled conditions from Matt from what i've seen from looking at the last two GFS runs.GEM and ECM it all looks settled and benign to me with temps a little above average maybe more if we can pull some warmer air in. Personally i'd say your post is a bit misleading as the only signs i can see of settled weather are out in FI and won't come off exactly like that. I would also like to echo the thoughts of @Frosty. and agree with him unless something all of a sudden changes.

Finally a little something to add model discussion wise is this output from the Beijing Climate Centre which nailed the forecast for last year calling warm/hot through the late spring and early summer. 

To me this looks similar to last year and considering the merit it has from last summer i'm inclined to have some belief in it not saying it's going to happen like this it just seems a reasonable fit to what some people have been talking about. Featuring lots of HP around the UK and just to the north, Although as some of the other posters like @Mike Poole have been musing there is some influence from LP to the south maybe suggesting more plumes this year and some more thundery weather. Although it is a little early to call June yet although we may be able to pick out vague patterns for May now and if this comes off it looks promising. As always the caveat that we are dealing with long range models here needs to applied and they can be hopeless or they can nail it or be somewhere in between, but i rate this model quite highly as it is usually better than the likes of the CFS.

Edited April 12, 2019 by Summerstorm

[Summerstorm]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well the ukmo 12h has thrown a spanner in the works and shows a cooler easterly continuing next week.

Think it would still warm up just might take longer than some of the other models are suggesting maybe a halfway house between what the models have been suggesting and what the UKMO is saying?

Edited April 12, 2019 by Summerstorm

[Methuselah]

Well, our old friend Mr GFS is still suggesting an improving outlook: 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, our old friend Mr GFS is still suggesting an improving outlook: 

 

Aye, but still that horrid wind direction, fret and haar

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, our old friend Mr GFS is still suggesting an improving outlook: 

 

I think the ukmo will be wrong in persisting with a chilly easterly off the north sea next week..hopefully..but I'm not going to fret about it, just wait and sea what transpires!

Edited April 12, 2019 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational certainly becomes milder next week and it's mainly dry with variable amounts of cloud and sunny spells, the best of the sunshine during the second half of next week which would be better news as far as good friday is concerned.

[johnholmes]

19 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think the ukmo will be wrong in persisting with a chilly easterly off the north sea next week..hopefully..but I'm not going to fret about it, just wait and sea what transpires!

choice of word for the N Sea?

Edited April 12, 2019 by johnholmes

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

choice of word for the N Sea?

Fret + Haar= vile

Edited April 12, 2019 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Fret ..Haar= vile

Aye, but I wonder where all this snow is that member called Ian said was coming? not due to hit my location, but anyone else still waiting for it?

[Methuselah]

A bit of a downgrade, methinks: 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, but I wonder where all this snow is that member called Ian said was coming? not due to hit my location, but anyone else still waiting for it?

I think there could be some sleety showers across east anglia and the southeast in the early hours continuing throughout tomorrow.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

35 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Not sure where you are getting unsettled conditions from Matt from what i've seen from looking at the last two GFS runs.GEM and ECM it all looks settled and benign to me with temps a little above average maybe more if we can pull some warmer air in. Personally i'd say your post is a bit misleading as the only signs i can see of settled weather are out in FI and won't come off exactly like that. I would also like to echo the thoughts of @Frosty. and agree with him unless something all of a sudden changes.

Finally a little something to add model discussion wise is this output from the Beijing Climate Centre which nailed the forecast for last year calling warm/hot through the late spring and early summer. 

To me this looks similar to last year and considering the merit it has from last summer i'm inclined to have some belief in it not saying it's going to happen like this it just seems a reasonable fit to what some people have been talking about. Featuring lots of HP around the UK and just to the north, Although as some of the other posters like @Mike Poole have been musing there is some influence from LP to the south maybe suggesting more plumes this year and some more thundery weather. Although it is a little early to call June yet although we may be able to pick out vague patterns for May now and if this comes off it looks promising. As always the caveat that we are dealing with long range models here needs to applied and they can be hopeless or they can nail it or be somewhere in between, but i rate this model quite highly as it is usually better than the likes of the CFS.

Last year we was about to enter a protracted spell of fine warm condition, and these conditions held firm til literally August. The chances of that same pattern repeating this year, I would put at about 10%. You can't see a pattern emerging now, and come to a conclusion that things are now setting up for the rest of the summer based on that fact alone! For instance high pressure can set up in May bringing a 2 week heatwave.... And the rest of the summer can turn Into a washout! It's nigh on impossible to draw to any conclusions at range, has you have already kind of stated. Has regards to a more unsettled type of conditions, there are some signs, and even exeter have backed away from settled and warmer conditions in there extended! Anybody who trys to make a call on this summer at this stage, is either very brave... Or very gullible! 

[Methuselah]

Would you Adam and Eve it! After six months' looking for a long draw northerly, and getting week after week of SW'erly SW'erlyness...along comes God to deliver a swift flurry of rabbit punches, right into the testicles!

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Summerstorm said:

Think it would still warm up just might take longer than some of the other models are suggesting maybe a halfway house between what the models have been suggesting and what the UKMO is saying?

Yes a blend of the 12z model output with more of a SE'ly component which would be good news being sourced from a gradually warming continent instead of the cold north sea and scandinavia..awaiting the ecm with interest.

Edited April 12, 2019 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Would you Adam and Eve it! After six months' looking for a long draw northerly, and getting week after week of SW'erly SW'erlyness...along comes God to deliver a swift flurry of rabbit punches, right into the testicles!

Aye, but northerlies more frequent mid April to early May

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Here is perhaps those glorious summer conditions, some are expecting..... Gfs arctic surge no 1,000.......oh yehh!! 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

.. Gfs arctic surge no 1,000.......oh yehh!! 

 

And not one has verified..impressive

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

And not one has verified..impressive

this one will, no strong jet/PV etc, or super lows moving out the eastern seaboard

[Methuselah]

FV3 is a tad better: 

[Frosty.]

This looks all white to me..well, mostly!

Edited April 12, 2019 by Frosty.