Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[Frosty.]

Nice warming trend next week post cool feeble easterly blip from tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean and a happy ending..certainly a warmer ending!..fair chance of pleasant easter weather this year?

Edited April 11, 2019 by Frosty.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening! Exceptional low dew points ,humidity and overnight low temps coming up, not good for Growers ,would not be surprised to see some record lows for the usual frost hollows in  southern Britain.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Can't believe the express was using wx charts and stating it will be - 7 this weekend over large parts!! Already heard people stating its gonna be sub zeroe all day.... Shambolic.... Those are the uppers, it will be around 7-8c, this doesn't do the senior forecasters reputations much good does it. Beyond the weekend a warming trend, still a risk of it becoming more showery by next weekend, perhaps more so to the southwest! Even hints of an arctic surge beyond, but that's all in deep FI, and will be subject to major variations. All in all not to bad folks! 

Edited April 11, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

28 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening! Exceptional low dew points ,humidity and overnight low temps coming up, not good for Growers ,would not be surprised to see some record lows for the usual frost hollows in  southern Britain.

Yeah bitter cold 9 or 10c..pffft..slight night frosts..wow..lol..and if there's cloudcover from the east..no frost!!!

Edited April 11, 2019 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yeah bitter cold 9 or 10c..pffft..slight night frosts..wow..lol..and if there's cloudcover from the east..no frost!!!

will feel a lot colder than a 9 degrees in Dec to Feb though, with the moist/mild SW'ly breezes

[Frosty.]

26 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

will feel a lot colder than a 9 degrees in Dec to Feb though, with the moist/mild SW'ly breezes

It's still rubbish, roll on next week's warm up..getting an Easterly that coldies have been waiting / hoping for all winter and even into March at this stage is like a slap in the face..as much use as a chocolate teapot.

Edited April 11, 2019 by Frosty.

[BlueHedgehog074]

5 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Just waiting for the amber warnings, this looks serious for the SE

 

I dunno, Frosty. That chart looks so bad, I seriously expect a red warning to be issued. 

I suspect this event will be on the evening news come Saturday!   

Edited April 11, 2019 by DiagonalRedLine

[Methuselah]

47 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Can't believe the express was using wx charts and stating it will be - 7 this weekend over large parts!! Already heard people stating its gonna be sub zeroe all day.... Shambolic.... Those are the uppers, it will be around 7-8c, this doesn't do the senior forecasters reputations much good does it. Beyond the weekend a warming trend, still a risk of it becoming more showery by next weekend, perhaps more so to the southwest! Even hints of an arctic surge beyond, but that's all in deep FI, and will be subject to major variations. All in all not to bad folks! 

I don't think the Express cares one way or the other whether it's right, Matt...so long as whatever rubbish they print sells papers? 

And they have the audacity to berate the 'snowflake' generation!

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

36 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

will feel a lot colder than a 9 degrees in Dec to Feb though, with the moist/mild SW'ly breezes

SWtly breezes!! That's not been to common a wind direction for some time. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

18 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

I dunno, Frosty. That chart looks so bad, I seriously expect a red warning to be issued. 

I suspect this event will be on the evening news come Saturday!   

I suspect DRL you are winding us up.... Just a little perhaps!

[Scorcher]

38 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

will feel a lot colder than a 9 degrees in Dec to Feb though, with the moist/mild SW'ly breezes

It won't in the sunshine, today 11C certainly felt warmer than 11C in winter with that strong April sunshine. It really depends on sunshine I think and whether you can get shelter from the breeze. It actually feels warm now in the sun and with shelter even when the temperature is below 10C. Certainly the warmest feeling 11C I can remember today here.

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I suspect DRL you are winding us up.... Just a little perhaps!

Nah Matt he's just seeing the funny side of this big weekend freeze..epic fail..I would say the chances of a snowflake surviving 8-10c doesn't compute.

Edited April 11, 2019 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Hmmm what are these little white blobs?..an upgrade perhaps!

[DR(S)NO]

3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

I managed to separate the wheat from the chaff

Meanwhile in Northern Scotland 

[damianslaw]

Not much to discuss at present, a case of seeing how far the cloud extends westwards. A chilly three-four days ahead, a number of places will struggle to get into double figures even under abundant sunshine a sure sign the upper air temperatures must be cold. Chance of a showery burst in SE parts over the weekend under a cold wind so it will feel preety un-springlike.

Into next week a warm up as we lose the easterly feed and exchange it for a warmer SE wind, signs showery wetter weather may move in from the SW mid week onwards, but not sure how extensive this might get.

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

I suspect DRL you are winding us up.... Just a little perhaps!

Just my opinion of what that chart shows, he hee!  

(Frosty's right, though. Was seeing the funny side of it, really :))

Edited April 11, 2019 by DiagonalRedLine

[Frosty.]

I'm cheering on Steve murrs chance of a snowflake on saturday..on his hill..dew points look good!

[Jimmy0127]

At risk of looking silly minutes before 18z, possibly a southward trend for that Western European low for +7 days?

 

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z  and it is all change re the weather in the run up to Easter.  here T192:

Jet stream to the north, leaving a ginning smiley face over the UK and the south, but this is a key moment in the forthcoming summer, will the jet stream move north and stay there?  Odds on favourite, I'd say, but by no means certain.

Edited April 11, 2019 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

Here she comes!!!

 

BULLSEYE!

Edited April 11, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[MATTWOLVES 3]

At last a cold surge with family jewels..... Bring it I say. 

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here she comes!!!

 

BULLSEYE!

I hope this isn't going to be a year without a Summer, when we had that heatwave in February I thought to myself, probably a bad omen for Spring/Summer all this ridiculous heat at this time of the year.

 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 00z operational the snow risk for the SE has downgraded / disappeared but it will be a cool and breezy weekend with plenty of sunshine and a risk of a few showers further e / se and overnight frosts.

[johnholmes]

7 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z  and it is all change re the weather in the run up to Easter.  here T192:

Jet stream to the north, leaving a ginning smiley face over the UK and the south, but this is a key moment in the forthcoming summer, will the jet stream move north and stay there?  Odds on favourite, I'd say, but by no means certain.

Why on earth should what is predicted for late April be a 'key moment' for the summer?

Ignore as I suspect I have mistaken what you are suggesting-sorry

Edited April 12, 2019 by johnholmes
misunderstanding I think

[Mike Poole]

38 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Why on earth should what is predicted for late April be a 'key moment' for the summer?

Ignore as I suspect I have mistaken what you are suggesting-sorry

Fair cop, John!  Suspect I meant to say 'is this' rather than 'this is'.  For what it's worth I was looking in the model output for signs of a northerly shift in the jet stream, as happened around this time last year, or maybe it was slightly later in the spring.  I could have explained that better.