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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

The only implications I'm seeing guys is the potential arctic shot yet again being flagged up! Brace yaselfs it's gonna get chilly! Anyweather come back..... All is forgiven! 

gfs-1-324.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
Just now, Mattwolves said:

The only implications I'm seeing guys is the potential arctic shot yet again being flagged up! Brace yaselfs it's gonna get chilly! Anyweather come back..... All is forgiven! 

gfs-1-324.png

I would like an arctic shot if available, it would be more potent than the toothless easterly we have in front of us.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed but 15 / 16c would feel pleasant enough, especially in any sunshine, much better than the 8 / 10c in the coming days.

Yes indeed Karl. My reservations at the moment would be a general breakdown in the conditions and perhaps more showery towards the holiday and the warmer temps being more reserved to the SE. 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The only implications I'm seeing guys is the potential arctic shot yet again being flagged up! Brace yaselfs it's gonna get chilly! Anyweather come back..... All is forgiven! 

gfs-1-324.png

But fortunately, cold shots can quite easily turn into hot shots...First week of June 1975, anybody?

image.thumb.png.17dee56990cbba7212c4694bddde7eb5.pngimage.thumb.png.909a44398ad8ffb72933a4e7ce2a9013.png 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

But fortunately, cold shots can quite easily turn into hot shots...First week of June 1975, anybody? 

Yes Pete..... Get the arctic in.... And the Mediterranean will follow... But not necessarily in that order!

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

What an ending by the 12z major warmth approaching from the South, and major cold pooling the West and Northwest!! Summer snowstorm in the making! ⛄

gfs-1-384 (2).png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes Pete..... Get the arctic in.... And the Mediterranean will follow... But not necessarily in that order!

I love the duality of spring but I'm not a fan of cool north sea filth..anyway, looks like a milder / warmer trend next week with winds becoming more SE'ly from a warming continent.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

What an ending by the 12z major warmth approaching from the South, and major cold pooling the West and Northwest!! Summer snowstorm in the making! ⛄

gfs-1-384 (2).png

Let's hope that that cold pool away to the NW generates a longitudinal Atlantic trough? Some air from the Sahara would be just what the doctor ordered!:yahoo:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
Just now, Ed Stone said:

Let's hope that that cold pool away to the NW generates a longitudinal Atlantic trough? Some air from the Sahara would be just what the doctor ordered!:yahoo:

Indeed, a good old buckling of the jet will do nicely.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Let's hope that that cold pool away to the NW generates a longitudinal Atlantic trough? Some air from the Sahara would be just what the doctor ordered!:yahoo:

Yes Pete, I look forward to some weather from the Sahara region!

EarnestIllfatedBird-size_restricted-1.gif

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

There's more stonkers than stinkers here..dare I say, Easter could be decent??!!

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Edited by Frosty.
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

Some longer term musings on the transition to summer from me.

The April GloSea5 results are out, here is a summary, first 2m temperature, then 500m heights for the summer season:

image.thumb.jpg.0dc4094da81a6dc48114d389daae07c6.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.610f829a10161b73a9494200387e27b5.jpg

 

There's a signal here for a warmer than average summer, particularly on the heights plot but it is not as strong as the signal on the March output, or compared to this time last year, for that matter.  So some uncertainty definitely remains!

CFS is still going for strongly raised temperatures, as an example one run, 2m temperature anomaly for May:

image.thumb.jpg.3db306e3e3b41aa1c9f01e2108823ede.jpg

And here June:

image.thumb.jpg.113050372432c11c353b5462ed0c2eb6.jpg

You can almost see the jet stream track off that (according to the model of course)?

You need to look at the CFS probabilistically and I could post 10 similar charts, but they are all the same in terms of the region of forecast above average temperatures, if you don't believe me have a look on Meteociel! 

And some interesting insight from Judah Cohen's blog:

'Therefore, I do expect, once snow cover retreats rapidly, for much of the continents to heat up and for above normal temperatures to be widespread across the mid-latitude continents.  I do plan on posting a Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer temperature forecast next month on the blog.  Sea ice remains below normal in the Barents-Kara seas and I think this does favor ridging near Northern Europe once again this summer but of course this is not a guarantee.'

and:

'Cold SSTs south of Iceland and in the subtropics of the North Atlantic with above normal SSTs in the mid-latitudes are thought to favor a positive NAO.'

Source:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Here is the current SST anomaly chart:

image.thumb.jpg.4313b15e5ab275343863b0a1e1e964c0.jpg

Finally, I feel I need to note that the seasonal model outputs are probabilistic, and so is this discussion.  It is not possible to know what summer will bring at this range, but these indicators give an idea of the probabilities.  I need to make that clear or I'll be accused of hopecasting (whatever that is).  My view is that the chance of a hot summer is  higher than recent years by some margin, but has reduced a tad from my view in March, largely because of the less strong signal from GloSea5, but perhaps the chance for thunderstorms has increased a tad.  

Regards

Mike

Edited by Mike Poole
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

I think I should temper my hopes, for a sun-drenched bank holiday, a tad?

image.thumb.png.762cbc40b5914cc08a25e62df64d4511.pngimage.thumb.png.91e60167f1fa1cf3621c737fa34194a6.png

Glad this is Day 16!

image.thumb.png.cfa473a3ab188885044b55635e5cb7b6.pngimage.thumb.png.44d530eeb4c894ca4b8623760a0299d1.png

Ensemble is a mix of stinkers and stonkers:

image.thumb.png.39da49ac24344373c70e5c7bc6eb8367.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think I should temper my hopes, for a sun-drenched bank holiday, a tad?

image.thumb.png.762cbc40b5914cc08a25e62df64d4511.pngimage.thumb.png.91e60167f1fa1cf3621c737fa34194a6.png

Yeah but there are some good background signals Ed..some nice warmth / heat spikes later in the month..as the 6z showed.

Edited by Frosty.
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yeah but there are some good background signals Ed..some nice warmth / heat spikes later in the month..as the 6z showed.

expect it chilly then, background signals suck

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

expect it chilly then, background signals suck

You could be right, the extended GEFS 12z mean suggests a late April arctic shot?

21_378_500mb.png

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

Remember the background signals for the winter gone, how did that pan out

Complete opposite wasn't it in the end. 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

I managed to separate the wheat from the chaff

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14_342_2mtmpmax.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
24 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Remember the background signals for the winter gone, how did that pan out

Complete opposite wasn't it in the end. 

Yes sleety, these longe range prediction models are about as useful has a one armed swimmer in a cross channel sprint. I've been burned far to many times by them, stay tuned I will be doing my summer nature forecast soon, you know... Frog spawn... Tree bark etc.... Its sure to be a corker!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Lovely warm up on Ecm 12z following the cooler blip..Sad smiley from Westcountry Storm guaranteed

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240_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Lovely warm up on Ecm 12z following the cooler blip..Sad smiley from Westcountry Storm guaranteed

His finger slipped!:oldgrin:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

His finger slipped!:oldgrin:

If he, she or it is trying to put me off posting it will fail miserably!

Anyway, good agreement for a gradual warm up next week following this feeble easterly.

 

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

If he, she or it is trying to put me off posting it will fail miserably!

Anyway, good agreement for a gradual warm up next week following this feeble easterly.

 

Aye, much better a rare SW'ly breeze, deep FI though and probably won't come off

ECM1-216.GIF?11-0

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, much better a rare SW'ly breeze, deep FI though and probably won't come off

ECM1-216.GIF?11-0

More chance of that verifying than any potent cold shot..anyway, milder trend next week is certain..how mild / warm it eventually becomes is uncertain.

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
59 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Remember the background signals for the winter gone, how did that pan out

Complete opposite wasn't it in the end. 

Tell me, what was your forecast for the Winter just gone? 

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