Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[damianslaw]

A chilly outlook for all, some notably low minimum temps for the time of year as well, especially tonight. A period of below average temperatures for the foreseeable with a cold easterly feed from a cold source. More cloud about as well, which will add to the chill feel. Into next week, a change in the orientation of the high pressure which will turn the winds to a milder source from the SE, but not from a particularly warm source, central europe as opposed to southern europe.

As we move towards the easter period, it becomes far from clear, the trough looks like anchoring in from the SW, it might become a strong feature with heights squeezed to our north, a slow moving pattern under showers or longer periods of rain could be the end result, with a low pressure system developing in situ over the UK - not great timing.. equally the trough might disrupt and heights might maintain a stronger hold on the UK resulting in more dry sunny and warmer weather. 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z actually shows our air becoming sourced from southern europe next week..not central europe!!..even the media forecasts concur with the potential for high teens celsius by the second half of next week across southern uk.

Edited April 10, 2019 by Frosty.

[damianslaw]

16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 12z actually shows our air becoming sourced from southern europe next week..not central europe!!..even the media forecasts concur with the potential for high teens celsius by the second half of next week across southern uk.

Yes ECM is showing this for the period entering easter, my comment was for the period into next week i.e. Monday-Wednesday and hence my comment about things either becoming trough influenced or staying warmer and drier and sunnier, going off the ECM it might be a warmer wetter spell though and winds could quickly swtich from south to east/northeast and eventually north/northwest.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes ECM is showing this for the period entering easter, my comment was for the period into next week i.e. Monday-Wednesday and hence my comment about things either becoming trough influenced or staying warmer and drier and sunnier, going off the ECM it might be a warmer wetter spell though and winds could quickly swtich from south to east/northeast and eventually north/northwest.

Apologies then, I misread it.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

A chilly outlook for all, some notably low minimum temps for the time of year as well, especially tonight. A period of below average temperatures for the foreseeable with a cold easterly feed from a cold source. More cloud about as well, which will add to the chill feel. Into next week, a change in the orientation of the high pressure which will turn the winds to a milder source from the SE, but not from a particularly warm source, central europe as opposed to southern europe.

As we move towards the easter period, it becomes far from clear, the trough looks like anchoring in from the SW, it might become a strong feature with heights squeezed to our north, a slow moving pattern under showers or longer periods of rain could be the end result, with a low pressure system developing in situ over the UK - not great timing.. equally the trough might disrupt and heights might maintain a stronger hold on the UK resulting in more dry sunny and warmer weather. 

That looks the more likely scenario to me, any trough looks likely to fill to me, upper trough looks very shallow.

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS shows a very long winded Easterly flow, Even out to 300hr+..

[Frosty.]

Beyond the cooler easterly blip the GEFS 00z mean indicates a subtle but important change as winds become more SE'ly next week from a warming continent and temperatures gradually rise, especially from next midweek onwards when mid / upper teens celsius becomes likely, warmest further south..the weather itself looks mixed but with some warm spells of sunshine.

Edited April 11, 2019 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z also shows a gradual warm up next week.

Edited April 11, 2019 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 00z operational there's not much snow around this weekend.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Up to 144 hours, the 00Z GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and GEM, shows one big fight continuing with both the Scandinavian High Pressure and the wicked Atlantic Lows!

(72 hours)

(144 hours)

Seems like that Scandi dude may be winning. For now! But those guys are always at each other’s throats! Why are they so grumpy all the time 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

32 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

 

Seems like that Scandi dude may be winning. For now! But those guys are always at each other’s throats! Why are they so grumpy all the time 

Good post DRL, but unfortunately they are never at one anothers throats, when it really matters!

[BlueHedgehog074]

7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Good post DRL, but unfortunately they are never at one anothers throats, when it really matters!

I guess that’s true!

[Methuselah]

A quick look at where the GFS and FV3 00Zs think we are headed:

 

Both look to heading for rather benign spell, and the GEFS ensemble isn't going anywhere drastic, either:  

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, next week it's Auf Wiedersehen cool crap

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 00z Easter could be very pleasant

[Earthshine]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the GEFS 00z Easter could be very pleasant

Looks brilliant!  Been fairly sunny here the last few days but that wind is biting!  Nice to see something a little more benign for Easter!

[Methuselah]

In the meantime, we'd best get out the snow snow shovels? Maybe use them for some arcane kung-fu moves: cloudy, grey dross can be very boring! 

[johnholmes]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the GEFS 00z Easter could be very pleasant

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

One can only hope!

Just so long as this b----y wind off the N Sea b-----s off!

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Just so long as this b----y wind off the N Sea b-----s off!

I couldn't agree more John but I'm not going to fret about it, let's just wait and sea what happens

[Methuselah]

Looks like mid-week'll produce some quite good growing weather: 5-15C (night to day) wouldn't be too bad?

 

[Methuselah]

And (barring the usual springtime caveat -- sea-fog near eastern coasts) next Saturday looks like being rather good indeed:

 

[Methuselah]

Ouch! A timely reminder that it's Spring and not Summer!

 

[Frosty.]

Easter looks very pleasant on the 6z operational and the days following..close to 20c.

Edited April 11, 2019 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

There's a risk of snow for steve murr's house on saturday..I await the yellow warnings, could get busy in the southeast thread soon but remember guys this is a low res chart, the high res won't look as good as this!!

Edited April 11, 2019 by Frosty.

[Don]

23 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There's a risk of snow for steve murr's house on saturday..I await the yellow warnings, could get busy in the southeast thread soon but remember guys this is a low res chart, the high res won't look as good as this!!

 

He doesn’t know it yet, but there is a party at Steve Murr’s on Saturday and all snow lovers are invited!