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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
3 minutes ago, Don said:

Ha, I’m too far west!  I may have to travel but probably not worth it, as at best I suspect it will be a bit of sleet on high ground!

You maybe right Don, it seems to be running out of gas on the 18z ICON. 

icon-1-120.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The cold pool seems to be running out of steam on the 18z para, this could become a non event!! Suprise suprise, I've heard that before somewhere! 

Ps.... The old gfs still not rolling out yet. 

Just nuisance value - 4 uppers by Sunday! 

gfs-1-120.png

gfs-1-144.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A non event turns into an extra non event..coldies are used to that:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

A non event turns into an extra non event..coldies are used to that:oldgood:

Just has well the old GFS still not rolling out, it would just mean twice the pain!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Just has well the old GFS still not rolling out, it would just mean twice the pain!

I can't believe I'm waiting for the delayed 18z with a chance of 7c at the weekend, I must be mad!!..actually I've had enough, night all.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
29 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The cold pool seems to be running out of steam on the 18z para, this could become a non event!! Suprise suprise, I've heard that before somewhere! 

Ps.... The old gfs still not rolling out yet. 

Just nuisance value - 4 uppers by Sunday! 

gfs-1-120.png

gfs-1-144.png

If the same set up had hit us say, 12th February, that would have been one heck of a frigid blast heading our way. There would have been far far less modification of the cold pool as it headed west. I'd say we'd be looking at -15 or-16 uppers fairly widespread.

Why oh why can we not get these synoptics in the heart of winter?

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If the same set up had hit us say, 12th February, that would have been one heck of a frigid blast heading our way. There would have been far far less modification of the cold pool as it headed west. I'd say we'd be looking at -15 or-16 uppers fairly widespread.

Why oh why can we not get these synoptics in the heart of winter?

Most definitely crew, and just to think the atlantic has been in relative slumber all winter, the vortex being over canada has big part to play in the reason it all went balls up. Sooner or later we will drop lucky.... I think recently I heard you say that sooner or later we will endure a mother of all winters! That crew I fully agree with... When, I'm not sure, but personally I think it's close. 

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Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
3 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Most definitely crew, and just to think the atlantic has been in relative slumber all winter, the vortex being over canada has big part to play in the reason it all went balls up. Sooner or later we will drop lucky.... I think recently I heard you say that sooner or later we will endure a mother of all winters! That crew I fully agree with... When, I'm not sure, but personally I think it's close. 

And with the luck we have it'll prolly hit in July...

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The European 500mb and 850mb charts for midnight (illustrating the upper trough and colder air to the east) and the Atlantic surface analysis for midnight

gfs_z500a_eur_1.thumb.png.d9aa197e52155e8dbd9469c92a0caa9a.pnggfs_t850a_eur_1.thumb.png.b04d28ba6ce4916d654dfb789a7b1102.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.89165fbc87422f11d886854d1269cdba.gif

A fairly chilly start to the day in the north but there is a lot of cloud and rain around in southern regions associated with the occlusion straddled across Wales to the south east. This will not shift that far during the day and pulses of rain will run along it, with some heavy bursts, so quite a wet day in many areas. Much regional variation of temperatures again. They will be depressed under the cloud in the south but quite warm where the sun breaks through and the usual story over north east coastal regions where it will feel cold in the easterly wind with low Stratus likely.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.6b6084bcf751b54cabd5c6d9914bc0bc.gif1771211443_chillt.thumb.png.c5d5d8b868c14e6a9d02dc82c99b355b.pngr09.thumb.png.d9bc8003b685f52354bf11275ded4f32.pngr12.thumb.png.afe85004db7040961a6f127535ff8e92.pngr15.thumb.png.abbbda0e3f77b1ba7e07b1266faa2208.pngr18.thumb.png.d5546f41ce0d805de24d711ce4c1dbeb.png

The front will slide slowly south through this evening and overnight so the rain will linger over the far south whilst the rest of the country will be reasonable clear with frost in the north with the odd fog patch

PPVG89.thumb.gif.c68118591177ba16ff202fb6185974f2.gifmin.thumb.png.8679ab991968a83e4a4052366e374219.pngr00.thumb.png.23c672787752d9a51fb5fa4682196225.png

The rain will finally clear the south west Wednesday morning leaving the day to be very much a west/east split with the sunnier weather in the former whilst the east will be cloudy and cooler again in the onshore wind. The could be some patchy drizzle around as well

PPVI89.thumb.gif.858173524779cb1fca3ef223dd7b2546.gif233599870_chillw.thumb.png.718c364131e6540e9c10c4f085608a0a.png

Little change to this situation overnight Wednesday and through Thursday

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.a593d832143bd22d62b9e670b3b1b16f.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.9e569d44bb78d4b04edc16853d00ddf7.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.0f9ea4d7c8ff52fbf6de0ee1015fdcd3.png

But by Friday the upper trough and the cold air mentioned at the beginning are taking closer order and the west/east split emphasized a tad more

gfs_z500a_eur_15.thumb.png.e0706e7dfdf336193af4a7be97a20ca7.pnggfs_t850a_eur_15.thumb.png.65c03d9c56af9753b07d5cfabe5776bb.pngPPVM89.gif.a8d1b98aa5955fd1710f5c6dfe9e8aaa.gif

gfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.da21f63adf90c6d8ec640a87801b1887.png

The colder air is established over the country on Saturday

PPVO89.thumb.gif.deb2b16f0dd8ed030032f7b4f58470ed.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.7844e9330e3d0a6a12bbdce5be079a3e.png

But still remaining dry over the country but possible some wintry showers around in the east and south east of England.Certainly a couple of forecast soundings are conditionally unstable but I suspect we are only looking at light showers. Of course I have been known to be wrong

1841565512_sounding1.thumb.png.8c0e56d7a8e7b1585e21dffbfef6647f.png1014888330_sounding2.thumb.png.634bec168987448065e93a9f102d17ca.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

To continue with the gfs. Quite a frost in Wales and central southern England on Sunday morning and another cold day with some showers down eastern regions. By midday Monday there is a lot of energy exiting the eastern seaboard, courtesy of a combination of the subtropical and Polar jets,and although much of this is diverted south  east, oblique pressure is brought on the block as a surface low approaches to the  south west of Cornwall and the surface wind veers to the south east over the UK. Still quite chilly day with temps a tad below average and showers along the north east coast

gfs_uv250_natl_27.thumb.png.54113bef1121936721a81305a24aefe2.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_27.thumb.png.df1ad4a296286fb82a5d5b2dbf4110f4.png

By the evening on Tuesday the low has tracked further north east and patchy rain and warmer air has encroached across the country

gfs_z500_vort_natl_32.thumb.png.79199f1203410b553f2ca5f8c61c61be.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_32.thumb.png.e9036cabbafbd1230547e53e5bdf3446.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Gfs 00z operational there are some snow showers / flurries indicated for the southeast and then other eastern and northern areas during the weekend, even into next Monday so a colder trend with widespread night frosts, -7 uppers (850's) and easterly winds. 

00_129_ukthickness850.png

00_126_uk2mtmpmin.png

00_114_preciptype.png

00_126_preciptype.png

00_126_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm is not precisely similar to the gfs as it tracks next weeks low north to the west of Ireland but an associated front does slowly track north east across the country with patchy rain and temps around average

t180.thumb.png.d1523eed765673f2055565b3aee41831.pngt186.thumb.png.5f2a9b01ddd30d88231b8c1cbbdf141d.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
8 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

The cold pool seems to be running out of steam on the 18z para, this could become a non event!! Suprise suprise, I've heard that before somewhere! 

Ps.... The old gfs still not rolling out yet. 

Just nuisance value - 4 uppers by Sunday! 

gfs-1-120.png

gfs-1-144.png

The gfsp has been poor all year.Im surprised you even mention it lol.

It seems to have a cold bias all winter ,but was less cold regarding  this easterly !

Although it finally  more or less agrees with the other models with bringing colder upper air temps for weekend .And this will be the new gfs ?

Chance of snow showers for the weekend ,amazing we chase for 6 months and we finally get our reward in April

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Trying to get a grip of the overall picture by looking at the EPS 5-10 mean anomaly Yes well.......

We are back to quite an intense vortex over northern Canada and a fair amount of amplitude over North Almeria. But more to the point there is an associated trough down the NW Atlantic which, with the aid of the Bermuda high ridging north. leads to a very strong upper flow exiting the north east seaboard/. As this flow reaches the central Atlantic it diverges sharply courtesy of the high pressure over Scandinavia and the low southern Europe, resulting in a very slack gradient in the eastern Atlantic. This would portend a quiet period of weather with temps a tad above average

5-10.thumb.png.ebfe2645e199e7fb036f6484acc2d91c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GFS and FV3 for Saturday:image.thumb.png.560252c8695c4e7de37b48cbb8522f69.pngimage.thumb.png.30fcb9372892b87633f47c06bd4a9834.png

For T+180:                          image.thumb.png.ddf00dd755d04b150e81678b0b1907fd.pngimage.thumb.png.d1d5187c9d9599ba7b3545ee2fc00c09.png

For T+264:                          image.thumb.png.e5730328eae5ad9de76db62f15662b67.pngimage.thumb.png.66d96a2ac0602a7417b6b9387db8bee5.png

And for T+384:                    image.thumb.png.645a84259d67389ecf8863af13691730.pngimage.thumb.png.f3d0487ebcfa5e8e038485b3c3af3c0b.png

So a slight lessening of Saturday's cold (both models) and a complete absence of the killer northerly suggested by some of yesterday's FV3 runs...More runs needed?:oldgrin:

Edit: forgot the ensemble: image.thumb.png.3b912a7f5460b75d3a9ed472002ae69c.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Well this could go on for some time

ECM1-240.GIF?09-12

but unless there are repeated NEly injections, this kind of pattern will see a very sudden flip as we get to the end of April. The cold pool to our east is disappearing and will slowly turn warm. A little more ambitiously - I note the very warm air approaching Corsica/Sardinia on this D10 chart. Get the separation right between the W Europe / E Europe trough and that could get funnelled our way, which would propel us from the low 50s to the high 70s in just a few days. I recall something similar a few years ago with 26C being reached by the start of May.

ECM0-240.GIF?09-12

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

NetWx-MR Wind chill night/day plus snow possibilities for this Weekend.

156801657_viewimage(63).thumb.png.3907c058f7d65fc5eb1279001caa6f25.png361346688_viewimage(64).thumb.png.7e05b328ac8bf91561d0301086728ebf.png795478885_viewimage(65).thumb.png.507adaacd36e6cebc0b8c3f1d9f7e9e3.png1687621946_viewimage(66).thumb.png.4ece2b06e23cfc6d421739f8e45d0f2f.png2061263565_viewimage(67).thumb.png.cc2fff96d9f3c84d006476422cabfa57.png1403755890_viewimage(68).thumb.png.dbad09474d05c74ccf1f1e8175c64d6d.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Stunning ukmo 0h again, especially from T+120 hours..feeling Bitterly cold in a strong Easterly airflow.

UW120-21.gif

UW120-7.gif

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Beyond the easterly  blast the Ecm 00z ensemble mean indicates a marked improvement in surface conditions due to a subtle shift in wind direction more towards SE'ly from a warming continent.

EDM0-192.GIF

EDM0-216.GIF

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM0-240.gif

EDM1-240.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Best chance of a little snow would seem to be Saturday afternoon and overnight?

image.thumb.png.a4a40b755af339b01b9e5622a7b03746.png

And, by Monday, slightly less-cold (but still none-too-clever) air moves in:

image.thumb.png.fc1968e2b2b4145de6b4ff903d61a87d.png Raw, to say the least!:cold:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Encouraging signs for Easter from the GEFS 00z mean

21_300_500mb.png

21_330_500mb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

A chance of some thundery rain? image.thumb.png.d73e0f3657351fba5d06f73141aa50ce.png

Where is everyone? There's still a chance of snow at the weekend...:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

A chance of some thundery rain? image.thumb.png.d73e0f3657351fba5d06f73141aa50ce.png

Where is everyone? There's still a chance of snow at the weekend...:oldgrin:

Indeed Ed, it's silent but deadly in here this morning

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Encouraging signs for Easter from the GEFS 00z mean

21_300_500mb.png

21_330_500mb.png

Indeed, Karl...low 20s possible? image.thumb.png.50df90929cfd21fb41b1d051bb3592ed.png  

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And, were that big Atlantic depression (always assuming that it'll even exist!) not to misbehave, we might even see uppers of 15C reach our shores? High 20s?:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.b72fed05e27a7f8d3b3bfa2c56d5d236.pngimage.thumb.png.1ce3f4ac9b7c1b0690e1c6486a99cd48.png 

We must also keep that giant-sized blue whale in its enclosure!:oldgrin:

Edited by Ed Stone
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