Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[SLEETY]

so models finally agree we are getting an easterly thenafter wanting to quickly break it down a couple of days ago,now it looks sustained,how typical now we are in April. that an actual easterly verifies!

And proving how pointless looking past T144 is!

 

[Frosty.]

Easterlie's suck in April but Northerly's dont..that's potent by late April standards.❄

[shaky]

Icon further west with the cold air and also 850s much colder compared to 00z run at 120 hours!!

[stodge]

Morning all

An interesting start to the week - having looked as though the E'ly might not last too long the main outputs are much more bullish this morning about a continuation into next week and perhaps beyond. It seems as though an intensifying Scandinavian HP will hold off the Atlantic LP which will then fragment ESE maintaining the E'ly flow.

GFS 00Z OP is a thing of beauty in low-res with a Greenland HP setting up and a good old fashioned late winter cold blast incoming from the NNE - almost perfect, Parallel beings back a westerly flow while I note GEM also teases retrogression at T+240. ECM and UKM are fairly close at T+144 but UKM maintains a stronger Atlantic profile so it all looks very precarious for E'ly fans. ECM keeps a strong Scandinavian HP with a ridge through to Greenland but it's a warmer SE'ly over the UK by T+240 so much more pleasant. Taking the ECM and UKM evolutions, I'd have a look at the 00Z GFS Control and see if that's where ECM might be heading after T+240. 

[Frosty.]

11 hours ago, Frosty. said:

 if we are looking at strengthening blocking, we could still see winds from more SE'ly which would make a considerable difference to the surface conditions..for the better!

Would you adam and eve it, the Ecm 00z agrees with me!

[feb1991blizzard]

Raw 7c Max's for a large part of the country.

[knocker]

The ext EPS this morning is indicating transferring the positive anomalies to the north east west as the Azores subtropical high ridges NNE whilst low pressure has been established over Europe.This would portend a slack gradient over the UK and a period of mainly dry weather with temps around average. But as usual the det runs will need to sort detail

[Methuselah]

The word 'unpleasant' sums this up nicely: 

[Frosty.]

The extended Ecm 00z ensemble mean is also trending less cool due to the changing orientation / position of the scandi high meaning more of a SE'ly influence, similar to the operational so although we are in for a cooler spell, it doesn't mean it won't feel pleasant in the sunny spells and gradually the flow could become milder / warmer with more continental input rather than northern european cloudy and cool north sea filth.

[SMU]

GFS now caught up -

-9c for the extreme SE now @126.

Dewpoints -3/-4c- surface temp 4-5c

Overnight & daytime windchill subzero all the way through Sat for the ESE

 

 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational so far, yes it becomes cooler but not dramatically so, many days we are around 10/11c and the occasional 7/8c..it also becomes predominantly fine with strong scandi heights but there is some green snot (shallow troughs) floating around with a risk of rain / showers from time to time and nights would be cold where skies clear with a touch of frost in places.

[Frosty.]

Phew the 6z really warms up later!!

Edited April 8, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

A very decent end to a very dismal run:

 

All we need now is for that overall pattern to stay like that from now until the end of October...sun, warmth and storms!

Edited April 8, 2019 by Ed Stone

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yes, the cold plume from the North from the GFS0Z in the later frames has now become a significantly warmer plume from the south, by the 6z! I can't really see the optimism of - 8 uppers that largely get mixed out over a day or 2!We have 3 choices.... - 12 uppers bringing proper cold and snow.... - 6 uppers bringing dank nothingness weather of 6 or 7c....or finally proper warm uppers pushing temps to 20c!!!!its mid April after all.... So I think I will go for the latter, has the former just ain't gonna be happening!... Not this side of December anyhow!

[Frosty.]

The mid / longer term GEFS 6z mean is also going for a change in orientation / position of the scandi high with the flow gradually becoming more SE'ly from a warming continent so surface conditions becoming increasingly pleasant towards / during easter..to me, that's better than cool dull easterly filth off the north sea with haar / fret!

Edited April 8, 2019 by Frosty.

[Derecho]

GFS parallel goes a bit mad in the later stages with -15C 850s hitting northern Scotland

Now that would catch my interest! Chances of that verifying are probably next to zero though haha.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Now that's what I call a cold surge! Non of them Nancy pancy - 6 uppers, pure filth is that cold surge! Shame its probably got about as much chance has verifying has wolves have of winning the FA Cup!

[Methuselah]

FV3 and GFS: The Brothers Grim!                                                                                                           

It doesn't get much worse than this! 

[stodge]

The 06Z changes little - even the Parallel joins in with some serious retrogression. Had that LP to the west of Norway come SSE rather than SE it would have been perfect for some late April snow.

The OP conversely ends pleasant as we get an increasingly SE flow off a warming continent while Control in low-res shifts the block far enough north to allow the trough to take over the British Isles so a changeable end after a settled spell. 

[SLEETY]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS now caught up -

-9c for the extreme SE now @126.

Dewpoints -3/-4c- surface temp 4-5c

Overnight & daytime windchill subzero all the way through Sat for the ESE

 

 

Gfs seems good at picking up easterlies then useless afterwards, time AFTER, time it backs away after first picking up on them, then reverts back to easterly after pushing the Atlantic quickly though like two days ago.! 

UKMO been only consistent model, but it only goes to t1444. 

Feeling very cold by Friday is the actual outcome!!! 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Now that's what I call a cold surge! Non of them Nancy pancy - 6 uppers, pure filth is that cold surge! Shame its probably got about as much chance has verifying has wolves have of winning the FA Cup!

Agreed, nothing wishy washy about that..the arctic is the only route to proper cold, the easterly is just feeble in april..nuisance value only.

[SLEETY]

5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Now that's what I call a cold surge! Non of them Nancy pancy - 6 uppers, pure filth is that cold surge! Shame its probably got about as much chance has verifying has wolves have of winning the FA Cup!

LOL I think we will one get  bitter Northerly outbreak as the high will try to retrogres towards  Greenland. As for Wolves well., thought you had it in the bag..

Edited April 8, 2019 by SLEETY

[MATTWOLVES 3]

12 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

LOL I think we will one get  bitter Northerly outbreak as the high will try to retrogres towards  Greenland. As for Wolves well., thought you had it in the bag..

Thanks sleety. You win some you lose some! Yeh good point about a potentially Nthly has the high moves, there is still a chance, but if its gonna happen along that magnitude, it needs to happen fast.... Soon be may!! Hell..... It soon be winter again! 

[knocker]

As expected quite a range of temps today

[Methuselah]

An 'interesting' last few frames from the FV3: It's coming!                                                     It's an open goal!

How could you possibly miss from there! 

GEFS 06Z ensemble tell an entirely different tale: