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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The key pattern change with the ecm starts around t102 with the intense trough (for this time of year) which tracks into the Plains, which  triggers the amplification in the atlantic resulting in the subtropical high ridging north east and building high pressure over Scandinavia. And at t144 > 168 the energy flows have advected colder air south west around the southern flank of the high into France and touching the southern half of the UK  Thus a dry but cold weekend particularly in the south where the temps of around 7-8C will feel a lot colder in the stiff easterly

t102.thumb.png.5bd8b4cf69d517053b374b7c13a2938e.pngt144.thumb.png.e9fbcf36dd6348af002cbf716235443f.pngt168.thumb.png.45deec15a396886a7795a2304b44e04e.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Quite a sting in the tail from ECM! Still alot to be resolved it seems! 

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

If you like easterly winds for next ten days and possible longer you are in for a treat possible frost at night too and cloudy days.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

If this was winter..boom, if this was a month ago..boom (thinking back 12months to the beast from the east but now it's a bust..not a beast, just nuisance value cool grey unpleasant dross..pass!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

By T+276, GFS Para have ceased their black ops mission, and are giving us something a tad less cold:

image.thumb.png.b723ac65b1498e03b2c403c4af3627ad.pngimage.thumb.png.281bb2d68a45da28649df6695a05f3c6.png 

As the Snafia so often say, during the winter months: no pain, no gain?:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Just now, Ed Stone said:

By T+276, GFS Para have ceased their black ops mission, and are giving us something a tad less cold:

 

As the Snafia so often say, during the winter months: no pain, no gain?:oldgrin:

I think it was arnie who said that Pete! Bit of a standoff devoloping between ECM, UKMO and GFS me thinks! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

I think it was arnie who said that Pete! Bit of a standoff devoloping between ECM, UKMO and GFS me thinks! 

Didn't arnie also say ... Stick around and I'll be back..hopefully that cool easterly cloudy dross won't be back!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It kinda lingers...just like bad smell! image.thumb.png.0b2023c99a033ee66ce0667807dc98f3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Just now, Frosty. said:

Didn't arnie also say ... Stick around and I'll be back..hopefully that cool easterly cloudy dross won't be back!

What I think Karl is, if we end up with an Estly feed these coming few months, things could end up very warm and settled into summer, also barring in mind it's a dry air mass!! So less humidity, but I can guarantee come December.... The Estly will diminish just in time for winter!! Yes..... I'LL BE BACK.... JUST NOT IN OUR LIFETIMES!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Just now, Ed Stone said:

It kinda lingers...just like bad smell! image.thumb.png.0b2023c99a033ee66ce0667807dc98f3.png

We defo need the terminator to sort that mess out.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Just now, Frosty. said:

We defo need the terminator to sort that mess out.

Though, given some of the earlier nonsense (not mentioning any names!) a Kindergarten Cop might even come in useful?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Though, given some of the earlier nonsense (not mentioning any names!) a Kindergarten Cop might even come in useful?

I'm trying to put that meltdown behind me Ed..

Anyway, interesting output, very recently it looked like the atlantic would crash through next weekend but now the blocking signal is strengthening again, at least on the Ecm..hoping for a better mean tonight.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Well as long has its the model thread.... Let's have a look at Brazilian model..... It brings the warmth big time.... Perhaps it has a warm bias due to the constant heat in South America!!

cptec-1-240.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening All, The Ridge to our North East is getting stronger, enjoyable viewing,,,

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Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey

Urgh this is depressing!! Is this still an effect of a later ssw?! Or just bad luck, lol! Don't shoot me, still learning!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's extended Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks blocked but gradually less cool and therefore more pleasant with more of a SE'ly tilt to the flow from the continent rather than northern europe  but still a risk of slight overnight frosts.

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM mean at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.5cd22da7f1796b448c67e9919fba8117.jpg

It might get warmer or it might not.  ECM thinks probably yes, but the uncertainty remains.  Goodnight folks.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
29 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Though, given some of the earlier nonsense (not mentioning any names!) a Kindergarten Cop might even come in useful?

Hello , both models show Blocking to our north east,, Winter has not finished

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I can't imaging why anyone would welcome grey, cloudy days with the chance of wind-driven sleet...Yuck!

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

A flip flop back today to what the models were showing on Thursday, heights to the NE more resilient and the atlantic trough held back further west, but unlike Thursday no direct cold NE arctic feed, instead just a cold easterly, the source of air from NW Russia. So a predominantly chilly cloudy week for the east, some rain in the south, driest sunniest and warmest weather unusually reserved for NW - but not that unusual in April - this often happens in an easterly in Spring.

Longer term - won't be surprised to see the trough remain unstuck far to our west and SE, we might see a SE feed, before heights finally retrogress to Greenland and we pull in a cold NE feed, equally we might just see heights build into the UK and westwards, which would result in a warm up, but not especially so, maintaining what could turn out to be a dry month for the NW in particular.

Those on the east coast won't like the outlook at all, sea fret and haar in abundance. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
15 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Those on the east coast won't like the outlook at all, sea fret and haar in abundance. 

For sure it's not funny haar haar but I'm not going to fret about it, just wait and sea what happens.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
32 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A flip flop back today to what the models were showing on Thursday, heights to the NE more resilient and the atlantic trough held back further west, but unlike Thursday no direct cold NE arctic feed, instead just a cold easterly, the source of air from NW Russia. So a predominantly chilly cloudy week for the east, some rain in the south, driest sunniest and warmest weather unusually reserved for NW - but not that unusual in April - this often happens in an easterly in Spring.

Longer term - won't be surprised to see the trough remain unstuck far to our west and SE, we might see a SE feed, before heights finally retrogress to Greenland and we pull in a cold NE feed, equally we might just see heights build into the UK and westwards, which would result in a warm up, but not especially so, maintaining what could turn out to be a dry month for the NW in particular.

Those on the east coast won't like the outlook at all, sea fret and haar in abundance. 

could be 3 sunless weeks here, today was bad enough

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
48 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

For sure it's not funny haar haar but I'm not going to fret about it, just wait and sea what happens.

Love it. The humour, that is 

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

A little ray of hope -- nothing really all that dreich -- even here in Suffolk! The 12Z GEFS ensemble isn't that bad...:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.b742f7fdfe06841da9e3755f9a5efd01.png

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