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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

And both GEM and GFS going for the warmup, T144, GFS first:

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GEM 12z:

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The honourable member for heat saying no to the cold from the east on this one! 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

That - 20 cold pool off North scandy, may as well be in outer Mongolia for the chance it's got of getting here! Gfs 12z has basically a decaying cold pool.... And if +7-8c floats ya boat at this time of the year.... Then fairplay to you! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Usually that would mean naff all as far as the uk is concerned..should this occasion be any different?..it's been fools gold for the last 5 months and now I'm hoping for some sustained spring warmth.

As Matt said basically

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Ode to a Scandi High: You're great in January and good in June; but, when it comes to April-time, you'd better sod-off soon! :oldgood:

image.thumb.png.34d4cef3561d3f721b75355984303137.png image.thumb.png.ed1a49b8bc06967f550c8b00b663dc95.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Ode to a Scandi High: You're great in January and good in June; but, when it comes to April-time, you'd better sod-off soon! :oldgood:

image.thumb.png.34d4cef3561d3f721b75355984303137.png image.thumb.png.ed1a49b8bc06967f550c8b00b663dc95.png 

Aye but in January the Atlantic would power through, April to June the continental air will win

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye but in January the Atlantic would power through, April to June the continental air will win

The atlantic will power through when there is continuous cold pooling out of the states, and know heights over Greenland! Let's hope low solar minimum will aid in a much weakened jet come next winter! 

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

You may have heard of a movie called the long good friday but have you heard of the warm good friday?..the Gfs 12z operational has!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

The jet stream always looks a bit demonic, but at T252 on the GFS 12z it is heading not in our direction necessarily, but none the less the eyes leaving the US are a metaphor perhaps

image.thumb.jpg.edcd9174d5389a8fcf3e8e0b234d14b5.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Another burst of potential -- and, this time, the European Anticyclone is doing a 'dying tadpole'!

image.thumb.png.f9d9241bd5bf655e90be2cdbed3e81cf.pngimage.thumb.png.73e30b116b65d4dc07ac6e2a1383e9fa.png  Bon riddance!:yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

FV3 12z not the only model to draw up a southerly, here at T156:

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image.thumb.jpg.9e807dbbf00f4a52bb3c88ff1576d914.jpg

And this ones supposed to have a cold bias!  Not that that I have ever bought into that, it seems to verify quite well actually. 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Seriously, why would anyone prefer cool cloudy easterly crap over this!!!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I think things are now headed towards heat rather than cold, as I have been saying for a while,  latest offerering FV3 12z T210:

image.thumb.jpg.ef9e6b9efba4d865742cf22c6d5f8a1b.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.64f47568275cd0c2aab0238469e29039.jpg

Roll on summer, I'll do a detailed update when the GloSea5 monthly charts are updated sometime next week! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Although the Gem 12z operational..scrub that I made a mistake..my bad :shok:

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think things are now headed towards heat rather than cold, as I have been saying for a while,  latest offerering FV3 12z T210:

image.thumb.jpg.ef9e6b9efba4d865742cf22c6d5f8a1b.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.64f47568275cd0c2aab0238469e29039.jpg

Roll on summer, I'll do a detailed update when the GloSea5 monthly charts are updated sometime next week! 

Heat is all but guaranteed these days.  Cold on the other hand.........

How I wish I was a mild/heat lover, but I never will be!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

FV3 at T288:

image.thumb.jpg.169e603e53948626b10b117dbe7b7e40.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.031ef3148778dc48ef25ac3790240e22.jpg

The thing to note is the ridging from the Azores high, this is what will bring the summer weather many (though not all) want.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Although the GEFS 12z mean looks a bit green snotty around easter, it's not all bad news!..I will keep an eye on developments as we get nearer if anyone is interested.

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Edited by Frosty.
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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

No warmth from the UKMO ( with maybe Ireland as an exception ) 

Lucky to get North of 8c over England & 4-6c in the ESE

ICON sees another pulse of deep cold hitting Northern Scandi at day 8 - about 6c colder than the last wave... (-20c isotherm)

Yes and no warmth on the GEM 12Z either with a chilly easterly feed developing, think models are now moving towards this theme, orientation of the strong scandy high looks favourable for a chilly easterly developing, rarely warm this early in the Spring.

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18 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Yes and no warmth on the GEM 12Z either with a chilly easterly feed developing, think models are now moving towards this theme, orientation of the strong scandy high looks favourable for a chilly easterly developing, rarely warm this early in the Spring.

ECM the coldest to date - Will feel bitter in the ESE

3C257D23-F08F-4339-9747-92F8AB0710BC.thumb.png.d0e6600ed378430a7cf3151bccf1f887.png2083C7ED-63B9-4396-BEDB-23B8FBEC198E.thumb.png.f8fc5af1c9961732e33b7dc55ec9da2d.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Will feel bitter in the ESE

3C257D23-F08F-4339-9747-92F8AB0710BC.thumb.png.d0e6600ed378430a7cf3151bccf1f887.png2083C7ED-63B9-4396-BEDB-23B8FBEC198E.thumb.png.f8fc5af1c9961732e33b7dc55ec9da2d.png

Bitterly disappointing for sure, 7-9c not so good really

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM the coldest to date - Will feel bitter in the ESE

3C257D23-F08F-4339-9747-92F8AB0710BC.thumb.png.d0e6600ed378430a7cf3151bccf1f887.png2083C7ED-63B9-4396-BEDB-23B8FBEC198E.thumb.png.f8fc5af1c9961732e33b7dc55ec9da2d.png

Yep, this one is going down to the wire, ECM T120:

image.thumb.jpg.1071e78ccfec7bc6367366d48c9d2f29.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.6530171c1f190afc45e63a32a525bddf.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
On 06/04/2019 at 18:00, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Still confident this E'ly will come off, hope models don't flip tomorrow to E'ly

Aye, was right again, the model runs of the other day were way off, knew the Atlantic wouldn't get through

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I bet you if that lands I dont get to 4.5c Max.

Windchill ~0c

Yes Steve but it's still rubbish compared to if we had this in winter, or even a month ago.. I've lost interest in it now.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I bet you if that lands I dont get to 4.5c Max.

Windchill ~0c

Corker - TBH though Steve i doubt it will verify though unfortunately now, eps awaited but support from GEFS lessening with every run.

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