Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[Polar Maritime]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

what does wha mean?

I guess he obviously meant 'what.

Can we please stop all the over questioning please.

Edited April 7, 2019 by Polar Maritime

[SLEETY]

Models struggling again, all because of a blocking high to the East. Again! 

Yesterday they wanted to blast it away, today they enhance it after t144

So pointless looking past 5 or 6 days ahead at the moment. They haven't a clue. 

[Frosty.]

30 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Models struggling again, all because of a blocking high to the East. Again! 

Yesterday they wanted to blast it away, today they enhance it after t144

So pointless looking past 5 or 6 days ahead at the moment. They haven't a clue. 

It's called revenge of the toothless easterly, a complete waste of space nuisance as we head towards mid april.

[Methuselah]

Back-end of the GFS Op: 

Back-end of FV3:               

00Z GEFS ensemble:       

GFS FV3 look a wee bit 'out on a limb'...

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean looks increasingly blocked (scandi heights) no sign of the atlantic breaking through there..the colder uppers for the week ahead are more of a glancing blow for the far east and then southeast and then the trend is gradually less cool / milder..not that the week ahead looks cold..it doesnt although there could be some slight night frosts where skies clear.

Edited April 7, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not sure I'm liking the set up this week, Eastern areas are gonna be thoroughly dank and miserable with temps becoming quite suppressed. There will be some rain and drizzle about has well especially in central and Eastern parts. Towards the weekend milder and wetter conditions will try to make inroads from the West, but the block to the East is putting up some resistance..... Meaning it could remain cold and miserable throughout!! Not inspiring weather on any fronts in my opinion! 

[Methuselah]

Still indications of an end to The Week of Dreich: warmer south-westerlies still look to be favourite:

 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the extended GEFS 00z I think there are grounds for cautious optimism regarding Easter in terms of high pressure and pleasant surface conditions.

[SMU]

GFS way out on a limb now -

probs one to dump in the bin as the ICON joins the cold scenario-

[Mike Poole]

GFS 6z hinting at drawing up some heat at T204:

+8 uppers into the SW!

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 6z hinting at drawing up some heat at T204:

+8 uppers into the SW!

I'm cheesed off with chasing watered down toothless easterlies now, hope the 6z is right!

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS way out on a limb now -

probs one to dump in the bin as the ICON joins the cold scenario-

Sorry Steve I've had enough of that lame cool cloudy dross now, hoping for a warm up..I've given my all chasing cold since November and now I've had enough, if we can't get a proper arctic blast, stuff it..bring on the warmth!

[Methuselah]

Now this looks altogether better: 

And, as far as any cold is concerned, it'll hopefully be a case of 'going, going, gone'!

Edited April 7, 2019 by Ed Stone

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Steve does have a point though, the euros are most definitely going down the cold avenue! I'm sick of saying this, but we would have had one potentially hell of a snow event on our hands a few weeks ago! 

Edited April 7, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

But now it's just a pain in the ar*e..bring on the warmth..stuff the euros

Edited April 7, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

Lovely jubbly!

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Quite a bit of influence from the azores high in the later frames from the 6z,warmer conditions much more widespread! 

[Methuselah]

Still looks good, but beware the collapsing/sinking high?

 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Still looks good, but beware the collapsing/sinking high?

 

Get the warm air in first and the high will follow or is it get the cold in first and the snow will follow, being autistic i get confused easily.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Get the warm air in first and the high will follow or is it get the cold in first and the snow will follow, being autistic i get confused easily.

Yeh but like rainman your probably brilliant to! I think it's most definitely get the cold in first Karl! And it's usually get the warmth in, and the thundery breakdown will follow 3 days later!

Edited April 7, 2019 by Mattwolves

[knocker]

A swift perusal of the clusters 192 > 240 would suggest the ridge/high pressure hanging in there although I most certainly would not like to hazard a guess at the surface analysis

And another very valid reason for not looking further than this can be found by just glancing at the change in in the ext mean anomalies over the last three days

Edited April 7, 2019 by Polar Maritime

[kold weather]

Has to be said the GFS is having a shocker temperature wise so far. Temps expected to be around 13-15c at this point across much of the south. Truth is actually 8-10c. Quite a large error 6hrs out!

[Polar Maritime]

So, That's all the nonsense gone.. Back to sensible Model Discussion.

Please report any problems instead of airing them for all to read in here.

Thankyou and continue.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I see the para wants to bring yet another cold plume down from the NE deep in fi!! Got a feeling april is gonna be a pain in the backside of a month! 

[Methuselah]

So, instead oh having mild air sweep across the country, from the south and west, the FV3 shows the resident cold air fizzling-out in situ? I know what I'd prefer!

 

Either way as Belshazzar (or was it Johnny Cash?) may have said: the writing's on the wall!