Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240 and the stage is set for an early summer:

Amusing turnaround, all that was required was for Exeter  to mention snow flurries and ... it then shows milder, the Gfs 12z operational for example shows 17 c for Mon and then 11-14c across southern uk from tues / fri..hilarious...puppy power

[Mike Poole]

32 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Amusing turnaround, all that was required was for Exeter  to mention snow flurries and ... it then shows milder, the Gfs 12z operational for example shows 17 c for Mon and then 11-14c across southern uk from tues / fri..hilarious...puppy power

Yes, Karl, that MO outlook amused me too!  But it's a big switch around  after the 12z models, here's the ECM mean at  T192:

And it isn't watered down too much at T240:

But that is beyond the reliable. I think, as I have for a while, that what's coming after a cool week ahead is a significant shift to warm....

[damianslaw]

A flip in the models today from the Greenland high NE flow sceanrio, to a southerly flow scenario next weekend, all thanks to the trough to the W putting pressure on heights to the NE not enabling the latter to ridge west sufficiently enough, and instead we see the flow back from easterly to southerly very quickly and a plume of tropical maritime air to invade the UK next weekend.

Longer term - the trough could easily become unstuck with heights to the east gaining traction again and this time pulling in a warm SE continental feed - at any other time of year, you would go with the trough winning out, but alas the atlantic in April is traditional in slumber mode and very often comes unstuck.

On a personal note, next weekend if the charts this eve verify looks like one of those awful moist dank humid low cloud invading every scenarios for here - not a fan of SW flows any time of year.. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

So agree with that middle bit damian, late June, the westerlies are due back, breaks at times Sept to Nov, then pure onslaught Dec to early March

[Frosty.]

32 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, Karl, that MO outlook amused me too!  But it's a big switch around  after the 12z models, here's the ECM mean at  T192:

And it isn't watered down too much at T240:

But that is beyond the reliable. I think, as I have for a while, that what's coming after a cool week ahead is a significant shift to warm....

Yes mike, the cool signal is being watered down and shortened, I don't think there will be many / any  snow flurries next week.

Edited April 6, 2019 by Frosty.

[Don]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes mike, the cool signal is being watered down and shortened, I don't think there will be many / any  snow flurries next week.

Yet again, the models seem to be up to their old tricks!  You have to ask why they have been so prone to picking up on cold signals and then water them down to virtually nowt?  This has been the theme since November.

[knocker]

For reasons that are way beyond my pay grade the ecm this evening has some rapid changes upstream in the Pacific that have a knock on effect of intense amplification in the Atlantic.

And then it deamplifies back to the position that gas been indicated over the last few days

 

Edited April 6, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

@knocker

gas been indicated.. I think you mean has been indicated

Edited April 6, 2019 by Frosty.

[ANYWEATHER]

To  John Holmes , Yes I'm the Joker in the pack , but look forward to see some snow next week in your Garden Best Wishes  Ian

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

Is this in code?  If so, please provide the rubric.

Looks like the Daily Express-style predictions from yesterday may have been a little misplaced.  A few cooler days in the week ahead then  something milder by next weekend.     

God help the public who are reading these magazine articles! Let me just reassure any newbies or guests who are tuning in..... That there is no significant cold spell on the way with record low temps and hard frosts coming... In fact after a few cooler days it will precede to warm up by next weekend..... And has regards to any snow in your back gardens, this may be possible if you hire a snow making machine for the week!! Hope that clears things up!

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

To  John Holmes , Yes I'm the Joker in the pack , but look forward to see some snow next week in your Garden Best Wishes  Ian

I;ll look for it but the odds must be greater than me winning on the Grand National not having bought a ticket

[MP-R]

GFS vs GFS Para - polar opposites again. The former giving more oomph to the Atlantic, which actually helps suck up high pressure to the SE of it but we may get stuck in a cloudy humid southwesterly, followed by a breakthrough properly with a more tradition W-E movement of lows. The latter keeping winds from an easterly quadrant pretty much throughout, varying from cool to warm. Take your pick!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Out to nearly day 10 and we seem stuck in the middle of nowhere! The real warm temps are boycotting us and so are the cold temps as well! And the run ends a bit well.... Rubbish!!! 

Edited April 6, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Mapantz]

Some posts removed.. back to  discussing the model output, please.

[Derecho]

9 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Hope you enjoy the wet snow which falls in you're back garden next week...Snowballs and Snowmen to you ..enjoy! 

Any charts to back up these extremely unlikely predictions? 

[knocker]

The NH 500mb profile and the Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 sat. image

The warm front associated with the trough to the north west and the following weakening cold front, that is linked to a forming  wave over Sweden, will be quite influential vis the UK weather in the coming days,

So this morning there is a lot of low cloud around in the north and eastern coastal regions and this will remain the case throughout the day which will be reflected in the temps, But where the cloud breaks, and in south eastern and western regions it will be quite warm with some convective activity bubbling up in the former and moving west during the afternoon.

The warm front will continue to move south through tonight thus a lot of low cloud ans mist/fog around and perhaps some drizzle. so remaining mild but some frost in the cooler air over Scotland

On Monday still a lot of variation vis cloud and temps with cloud and drizzle in the area of the warm front and still a lot of clagg in the north east but elsewhere sunny intervals. Some rain may encroach the south west by late afternoon courtesy of an occlusion associated with the low north west of Coruna.

Over Monday night and through Tuesday the cold front also tracks south so that by Tuesday afternoon a N > S split over the country with the colder and clearer air over the latter and still some patchy rain in the south

 

Over Tuesday night and through Wednesday the battle between the advection west of the colder air in the east and the frontal systems, associated with the trough dominating the Atlantic, trying to track east gets underway

 

Which continues on Thursday

Edited April 7, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 00z operational, Easter would be dry, warm and sunny with high pressure in control  

Edited April 7, 2019 by Frosty.

[knocker]

Note

When I came to check the above most of the fax charts were out of kilter because they did not download from the site correctly. It's done this to me before. So I've just removed them and left it as it is as it should be east enough to follow from the text and the remaining charts

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the Gfs 00z operational, Easter would be dry, warm and sunny with high pressure in complete control  

Aye not bad, 00Z looks correct, 18Z was unrealistic with Atlantic air over us, 00Z, E'lys right from 0 to 384

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 00z operational, no cold snap during the week ahead, temps generally between 9-13c across the board, mildest further south...monday closer to 17 / 18c in most favoured spots.

Edited April 7, 2019 by Frosty.

[knocker]

So how does the battle pan out according to the gfs. Well it's partly resolved initially by the intervention of a third party, namely the subtropical high ridging north over the UK by midnight Saturday

This more or less keeps the status quo over the weekend  which translates on the surface to a fairly stiff southerly breeze and a front with some rain stalling across the western half of the country with some rain, Temps still variable but tending still below average

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 0h still looking increasingly cool later in the week with night frosts.

[shaky]

16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The ukmo 0h still looking increasingly cool later in the week with night frosts.

Yup and ecm looks a little colder and backs scandi high further west compared to last nights 12z!

[SMU]

Both the Euros back to being pretty cold this week especially in the E & SE

That continental cold still has some bite 

There was a light Easterly here yesterday & it was 7.5c- it felt freezing ...

ECM could well bring some snow grains end of the week - I reakon that will be be around 3-4c & feel bitter in the SE

A bit more oomph & the -9c line could have made it...

 

[knocker]

The ecm still has some impressive amplification by the weekend so no frontal encroachment thus dry in the easterly breeze which picks up over the south east on Sunday with a trough to the S/SE Temps below average, particularly in the east ans south east. This is still a long way from a done deal

Edited April 7, 2019 by knocker