Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

from our resident comic!

 

 

If only he was funny:lazy:

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
2 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All,! Don't Underestimate next weeks cold...Its not really being picked up from model outputs and tv forecasts , but everyone will feel the unusual cold. The computer models cannot perform well with Northern Blocking , wild swings  from them , but next week into the early following week will see Record lows ,Damaging Frosts , and snowfall even for southern Britain,, along with localised flooding , Devil will be in the detail, but an April to remember...

gemma.png

gemmax.png

gemmaxx.png

gemmaxxx.png

Thanks Mr Rao.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

FV3 Not to dissimilar than UKMO at similar time frames! 

gfs-1-150.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

FV3 Not to dissimilar than UKMO at similar time frames! 

gfs-1-150.png

Yes, maybe the derision is not warranted after all - stonker.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Yes Feb the para looking more menacing than the older model, looks like a decent cold tap on reserve to the far NE as well. What a temperature divide... +8 to our SW.. and - 8 to our East! 

gfs-1-156.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.

ukmo not backing down this morning.....there's still hope!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The upper trough that has been in control of late has become negatively tilted to the west as the pattern undergoes change

The NH 500mb profile and Atlantic surface analysis for midnight

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.4b8efefdd7d8fbaadcf285e183a23deb.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.a6d8ef299319691db1ab7d027b96d956.gif

The complex area of low pressure to the south west associated with the above will tend to sort itself out during today as it continues to slide south east. The bits and bobs of rain still around in the south west will clear quite quickly and most of the country will then have a fine day and it will get quite warm where the cloud breaks. The exception to this will be the north east and eastern coastal regions where the old front is straddled across Scotland and coupled with the onshore breeze this results in a lot of low cloud and rain/drizzle in these regions and consequently the temps depressed

1472780436_maxs.thumb.png.44f405ec271b98d26915e60d033d395e.pngp12.thumb.png.1a19ccdec92c414c84c0107f887ecdfe.png

Through this evening and overnight the cloud and patchy drizzle will spread inland somewhat so a relatively mild night but colder in the west where it remains clear with perhaps the odd patch of frost. Perhaps the chance of the odd shower in the south west from the adjacent front.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.288501aa7cb148cc1719c0fd71f0dff1.gif

Sunday a day with a lot of regional variations due to distribution of cloud amounts and onshore winds but where the cloud breaks it could well be warm enough to trigger some convection, most likely in the south east.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.51c12ce84033cd6298893ea6ea1c85b2.gif1425497112_maxsu.thumb.png.6466d1ee22ceea55d5619394bac8155c.png

Over Sunday night and through Monday the complex area of low pressure and the associated occlusion will bring rain to Cornwall and then NE to Wales and the Midlands during the day. And another day of contrasts becoming very warm again where the cloud breaks and much cold in the NE and eastern coastal regions

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.eebb27399dd0b065ecdbb5ed232070cf.gifPPVK89.gif.e104448277079789f1c4e0f481b683ea.gif

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_12.thumb.png.fd810bf16e6f40e7ddc36ec4430f95de.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.9a1373cfa91cb114d2f24dd1fab27958.png

Over Monday night and trough Tuesday the cold front associated with the trough over Finland has slipped south down the North Sea resulting in much colder air flooding into much of the UK on the stiff easterly wind with only the far south staying quite warm, albeit still cloudy with patchy rain

PPVM89.thumb.gif.1b6e3824729209a65e5062179f224b24.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.a1da3af724c4d349df023d07395064d7.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.c5dc90fa6ca0ab7cc4ad01595ace3d65.png

The cold front continues to track south on Wednesday (possibly joined forces with the occlusion over the UK?) so still some sporadic rain around in the south but all of the UK in the colder air apart from God's Little Acre.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.9e24beeecbcfcc1afb063e23fbe6a069.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_20.thumb.png.3a9f65563427f4d3e061452af52c65cd.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.36842d091f889c8cf4ce030b5d591b51.png

Edited by knocker
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

To continue with the gfs. The cold easterly regime continues for the next couple of days, Thursday and Friday, but as part of the pattern change mentioned earlier high pressure has spread west as far as Canada whilst a major trough drops into the western Atlantic. And over the weekend, as this moves east the battle ensues between this and the high cell to the NE being reinforced by the subtropical high amplifying north, On the surface that translates to a frontal system struggling east against the block and slowly introducing patchy rain and warmer air.

gfs_z500a_nh_27.thumb.png.968578e058b9eddf62ec5fac0f64286e.pnggfs_z500a_nh_35.thumb.png.520b5fc8265c6432d897a1f22d9c7b0a.png

Edited by knocker
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
7 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes Feb the para looking more menacing than the older model, looks like a decent cold tap on reserve to the far NE as well. What a temperature divide... +8 to our SW.. and - 8 to our East! 

gfs-1-156.png

but first dreading the 2 days of horrendous non stop rain on Mon and Tues, maybe Wed too

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Gfs 00z operational approx max temps (they can rise another degree or two between 3-4 pm) next week shows a very mild start then trending cooler but nothing exciting,  some rain introducing the gradual drop in temperatures  but generally a lot of dry weather, probably a lot of cloud with the best of any sunshine further west...wintry?..Nope

00_63_uk2mtmp.png

00_87_uk2mtmp.png

00_111_uk2mtmp.png

00_135_uk2mtmp.png

00_159_uk2mtmp.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm similar to the above on Thursday but the UK in a col on Friday although still showers along the north east coast but over the weekend  rain  and strong winds from frontal systems encroaching from the west and much warmer air on the long south westerly fetch. Temps could reach 20C in the south east according to the ecm

t210.thumb.png.a7353f099076d20fe43ebca483326c43.png1028235946_t21temp.thumb.png.364b1702cadeb0286fcb63c7fa78247f.png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z doesn't scream wintry does it

192_thickuk.png

192_mslp850.png

216_thickuk.png

216_mslp850.png

F1E4CD7A-ED68-496F-9C37-A166975CEDAA.gif.b4e6f22aad13edd1c74905175d85f0e3.gif

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

another warm outlier probably from ECM frosty ,like it seems to do when Northern Blocking tries to become established .

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
30 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

another warm outlier probably from ECM frosty ,like it seems to do when Northern Blocking tries to become established .

 

Only the far NE has any really cold uppers for a time next week (-7 / -8 850's)..bring on the warmth if that's as good as it's going to get...chasing fools gold has become tiresome this last 5 months.

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

The GEFS (00Z version), continues to show a build of Pressure over the U.K towards the Easter period, the best of the settled and warm conditions towards Southern UK. 

While it’s only an ensemble mean, doesn’t scream particularly unsettled. 

I imagine quite pleasant in sunnier spells.

I think, to be fair, should the Easterly next week not be cold enough for something wintry (can’t really see any snow occurring) then, personally, roll on some warmer, brighter weather!

5E314AF8-57F2-4355-B156-960115E4CC2F.thumb.png.2fb9d676e9aa38853967f0322a19cffd.pngDFFC3638-C57E-4539-8249-F52FC1086CDB.thumb.png.da3f4df3666c8cd8e48058c630655e56.png5B6B6B95-0443-48C6-A124-E1A14FD7BD97.thumb.png.58d91d8914bfef855341b0a06c849ca5.png9A2E7AEC-2F39-497A-898C-3F637A607CE6.thumb.png.f02e2e50f08ec455b3486ba011f50800.png7A23B794-02F2-47CE-B098-323AF7C92604.thumb.png.59d48f96d3f4f41b68b1d16e579e1a23.png1ACF0D64-1DB5-46E6-B6D8-A93FEB2A2074.thumb.png.47c397d4a01ce678c11b8ec682f57c30.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
42 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

another warm outlier probably from ECM frosty ,like it seems to do when Northern Blocking tries to become established .

Seems that way through it wouldn't be the first time the Op has lead the way its happened before in winter then the mean eventually catches up

 

graphe_ens3.php.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Seems that way through it wouldn't be the first time the Op has lead the way its happened before in winter then the mean eventually catches up

 

graphe_ens3.php.png

Surely not another failed Easterly.Ukmo still looks very cold upto t144

Find out in  another 24 hours i would imagine  if it was another chasing fools gold !

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

According to the 00Z, this week's Cack Attack may not be as depressing as previously feared:

image.thumb.png.e045e72b5874f96540e5507cb8f07bde.png

And, by next weekend, it's already under fire from the SW: image.thumb.png.f248b03c84d70c31161326106df83f10.png

Not bad at all, come Sunday: image.thumb.png.6db6d6f774de44ff37990c16fe63bcc2.png

Oh no!                 image.thumb.png.58d93780d5272fa07f706faa8d6ad9a8.png 

The Ensemble: image.thumb.png.1316e24cad906848b0c1a6d914677528.png 

Soon be time for the 06Z!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Ukmo 0h still looking cold @ T+144 hours..but how cold at the surface?...  my guess around 6 to 8c max..a notch higher further south...pass

 

UW144-7.gif

UW144-21.gif

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Cold looking more of a nuisance than anything else -- as is so often the case, this late in the year? image.thumb.png.5331ce39807c6a04505bc48039637eba.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Ukmo 0h still looking cold @ T+144 hours..but how cold at the surface?...  my guess around 6 to 8c max..a notch higher further south...pass

 

UW144-7.gif

UW144-21.gif

but no change on 06Z with Monday/Tuesday persistent non stop deluge, really is looking like 'child of nadine ' style rain, same days too, mon and tues, flooding likely for places west to East, no further north than Stoke, no further South than B'ham

ukprec.pngukprec.pngukprec.pngukprec.pngukprec.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Looks like UKMO is on its own folks, I've noticed some posts pointing out how the models struggle with HLB! so if we do get put into the freezer come next winter.... Will the models be sending us on a merry dance, due to not being able to deal with HLB! I heard it pointed about years ago from a met spokesperson that when the uk suffers numerous mild winters consecutively, the models can indeed struggle with a major pattern change to much colder conditions... Perhaps something to bare in mind next winter! Looking at the Ecm and it's warm up, tends to only bring a glancing blow of very mild air, notice how much colder air is still loitering to our North! I feel still a few things to be resolved perhaps! 

 

ECM0-192.gif

ECM0-240 (1).gif

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

6z is pathetic next week, to call that a cold snap would be an insult to cold snaps.

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Seems that way through it wouldn't be the first time the Op has lead the way its happened before in winter then the mean eventually catches up

 

graphe_ens3.php.png

I think EC is overplaying the Atlantic, more like a Dec/Jan setup just to power the block away, hope it is right though, this EC potentially warm next Sunday, maybe 18 degrees in parts, trend I feel on next few EC runs is to tone down the Atlantic attack, keeping us under E/NE'lys sadly

ECM1-168.GIF?06-12ECM1-192.GIF?06-12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Aye, with the TCZ shifting ever northward, momentum ought to be shifting in favour of the 'warm' air...Though, that alone doesn't always guarantee an awful lot...Take 2012, for instance?:shok:

image.thumb.png.80ee9d2956541f630fbd59f1c5b1c782.pngimage.thumb.png.4c366b2f5e34a2a3bc21c7c4f52b0c99.png 

image.thumb.png.40fe4fab3e14c476be867a42fba2bb5d.pngimage.thumb.png.0f920c9f6b2e4f7c3bd7c377cd1230ee.png

 

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...