Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Unreal folks, ECM leads us up the garden path again along with GFS, basically standing for... Good for sod all! Yesterday we were heading for the freezer, today we are heading for the Bahamas! Oh well, deckchairs at the ready..... Bring fourth 2019 summer!!! Hopefully it will go down has the summer of contention! To say the winter has left me feeling agitated is an understatement!!! Hopefully summer will be a knockout. 

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed karl...Looks as if Yuri Geller's been bending the isobars - with the power of his mind!

Speaking of isobars..  wheres  Tight Isobar?..  he's missing some stonking which may turn into stinking output by tomorrow..actually it already has!

Edited April 5, 2019 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the extended GEFS 12z there are lingering signs of winter but also charts to make you dream of the summer to come!!

[Mike Poole]

Instructive to look at the 12z GEFS mean and spread on T850s, here T162 (my time estimate of peak cold across the models):

w

-4C mean contour south over much of the UK, but the spread indicates considerable uncertainty south of Scotland.    Still a lot to be firmed up on this one I would suggest.

Edited April 5, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Don]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Unreal folks, ECM leads us up the garden path again along with GFS, basically standing for... Good for sod all! Yesterday we were heading for the freezer, today we are heading for the Bahamas! Oh well, deckchairs at the ready..... Bring fourth 2019 summer!!! Hopefully it will go down has the summer of contention! To say the winter has left me feeling agitated is an understatement!!! Hopefully summer will be a knockout. 

We'll just have to hope that we have more luck next winter and more importantly, the models do not lead us up that garden path!  Next week was never going to deliver anything IMBY, but it would have been nice to have some more prolonged colder than average conditions for a change.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All,! Don't Underestimate next weeks cold...Its not really being picked up from model outputs and tv forecasts , but everyone will feel the unusual cold. The computer models cannot perform well with Northern Blocking , wild swings  from them , but next week into the early following week will see Record lows ,Damaging Frosts , and snowfall even for southern Britain,, along with localised flooding , Devil will be in the detail, but an April to remember...

[Singularity]

For the sake of our wildlife, I'm glad to see the cold incursion being toned down for later next week.

Looking beyond that, an increasingly strong suggestion from the models that ridges will start developing in the Iberian region and moving NE from there during the 2nd half of the month, as the atmosphere takes on a more typical El Nino configuration. They're just having a bit of trouble toning down the N. Atlantic westerlies enough; they should become pretty sluggish as AAM rises.

So if you fancy seeing temps back into the 20s, you may only have a dozen or so days to wait, which given that we're in April isn't bad going actually (the late Feb spell distorts impressions).

[Mike Poole]

15 minutes ago, Singularity said:

For the sake of our wildlife, I'm glad to see the cold incursion being toned down for later next week.

Looking beyond that, an increasingly strong suggestion from the models that ridges will start developing in the Iberian region and moving NE from there during the 2nd half of the month, as the atmosphere takes on a more typical El Nino configuration. They're just having a bit of trouble toning down the N. Atlantic westerlies enough; they should become pretty sluggish as AAM rises.

So if you fancy seeing temps back into the 20s, you may only have a dozen or so days to wait, which given that we're in April isn't bad going actually (the late Feb spell distorts impressions).

Yes, totally agree with this, it has maybe been delayed a week or so, but the signal for settled weather longer term is still there, what I was alluding to the other day about a flip to warm mid month.  Re GWO signal seems to be to move into phase 6, higher atmospheric angular momentum, 

This correlates well with mid latitude high over the UK, sorry can't post chart showing that, it's on my work computer!  This the kick start to summer in my opinion.....

Edited April 5, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean pretty much mirrors the operational with a strengthening easterly flow next week and becoming colder, especially further north and largely fine with sunny spells further west, probably cloudier further east, the cold accentuated by the strength of the E'ly winds but towards the end it becomes milder from the s / sw with lighter winds for a time but then probably more unsettled, mild and windier for the southwest and then other western areas. 

[knocker]

The ext EPS has moved a tad over the last three days with the vortex over Franz Joseph slipping in to the Russian mainland which has relaxed the the trough to the N/NE of the UK which in turn facilitates the subtropical high to ridge north This should portend a drier and quieter period with temps creeping close to normal

[MATTWOLVES 3]

31 minutes ago, Don said:

We'll just have to hope that we have more luck next winter and more importantly, the models do not lead us up that garden path!  Next week was never going to deliver anything IMBY, but it would have been nice to have some more prolonged colder than average conditions for a change.

Yes Don, hopefully next winter will deliver! It sure to god can't be any worse than the one we have just endured! I take my hat of to myself and the few on here who have beat there heads against a brick wall searching for a prolonged cold snap for so far into April. You are all basically a credit to this forum for spending so much time just trying to put something together and bring us cold starved coldies a little bit of joy! You commented with me the other day Don on the fact some of the more senior forecasters wasn't really going for any major cold snap! Now I think, you can see why, personally I expect UKMO to back down tomorrow. But at least we have summer to come and luckily we have some excellent astute posters to bring us.... Hopefully the summer that will make us rejoice. Then come November, its back to the drawing board for winter.... And you know what.... 2020 has just a fantastic ring to it!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

39 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All,! Don't Underestimate next weeks cold...Its not really being picked up from model outputs and tv forecasts , but everyone will feel the unusual cold. The computer models cannot perform well with Northern Blocking , wild swings  from them , but next week into the early following week will see Record lows ,Damaging Frosts , and snowfall even for southern Britain,, along with localised flooding , Devil will be in the detail, but an April to remember...

Sorry anyweather your on ya own with this bold prediction! but what your going for would need a repeat of 81,and let's be honest that miniscule! 

[Frosty.]

I've mentioned strong easterly winds next week as per the ukmo / ecm 12z but from other media I've seen it doesn't look windy at all, a bit breezy but nothing more..becoming cooler though for sure. It actually looks less cold than this week and this week hasn't been particularly cold either..probably a non event then as next week looks largely dry.

Edited April 5, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I've mentioned strong easterly winds next week as per the ukmo / ecm 12z but from other media I've seen it doesn't look windy at all, a bit breezy but nothing more..becoming cooler though for sure. It actually looks less cold than this week and this week hasn't been particularly cold either..probably a non event then.

It looks a non event Karl, and to come on here and talk about record breaking cold is tbh a little misleading to any novices or guests who are tuning in to get the latest.... Know way if the big boys were seeing significant cold would they be keeping stum! And the post isn't aimed at you mate!

[Mike Poole]

Well I think it's all bets off for next week, who knows what will happen, 12 suite suggested on average less cold at least in the south, but there was the UKMO?  Now ICON 18z at T117:  direct hit:

Think I'm more confident of the heat for Easter, than next week!

Edited April 5, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

And the post isn't aimed at you mate!

Yeah, I certainly haven't mentioned anything about record breaking cold or even any snow, it looks a dry squib to me..maybe  next winter we will get lucky..hopefully, who knows.

Edited April 5, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well I think it's all bets off for next week, who knows what will happen, 12 suite suggested on average less cold at least in the south, but there was the UKMO?  Now ICON 18z at T117:  direct hit:

Think I'm more confident of the heat for Easter, than next week!

Thing is Mike the cold pool to me doesn't look like making the grade to bring anything other than a bit of a chill in the air, I think us coldies wanted one last hoorahh, like an 81 repeat.... And tbh, that just ain't gonna happen is it. 

[Frosty.]

That ukmo 12z T+144 chart was something else but it has no support and will probably go the way of the pear tomorrow, anyway, there's nothing exciting about cold, windy cloudy and dry in april..it's dire..if there's no snow, there's no point!!

Edited April 5, 2019 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Thing is Mike the cold pool to me doesn't look like making the grade to bring anything other than a bit of a chill in the air, I think us coldies wanted one last hoorahh, like an 81 repeat.... And tbh, that just ain't gonna happen is it. 

Well it is April.  And stuff from the east will have to cross the North Sea and it is a lot warmer than last year.  Maybe we should all move on from chasing cold, to chasing heat and storms....one look at next Friday first maybe....

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Well it is April.  And stuff from the east will have to cross the North Sea and it is a lot warmer than last year.  Maybe we should all move on from chasing cold, to chasing heat and storms....one look at next Friday first maybe....

This is a good point Mike, the only problem is.... When we start chasing heat and storms, the charts start churning out winter sypnotics!

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

This is a good point Mike, the only problem is.... When we start chasing heat and storms, the charts start churning out winter sypnotics!

I think we're no more than two weeks away from that flip to warm I have suggested here.  We will see!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The CFS says stuff spring/summer you ain't getting one.

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The CFS says stuff spring/summer you ain't getting one.

I will save that chart and see how close it was..probably a heatwave then!.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Frosty. said:

I will save that chart and see how close it was..probably a heatwave then!.

Actually it does bring high pressure and warmer conditions by the final 3rd of the month!

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All,! Don't Underestimate next weeks cold...Its not really being picked up from model outputs and tv forecasts , but everyone will feel the unusual cold. The computer models cannot perform well with Northern Blocking , wild swings  from them , but next week into the early following week will see Record lows ,Damaging Frosts , and snowfall even for southern Britain,, along with localised flooding , Devil will be in the detail, but an April to remember...

from our resident comic!

 

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said: