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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The 6z parallel starts trending milder again later next week..and then colder air starts fighting back!!..sweet jesus, roll on summer!!

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GFSPARAEU06_204_2.png

GFSPARAEU06_228_2.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Not a bad day today  suns out decent weather. This time next week though (gfs6z)  shows cold weather for anytime of year  with temps in the day  for next friday for many areas around 3-6 c  in the wind could feel below 0c    however still a long way to go    to late for me  starting to hope for much warmer conditions 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And now, after an entire winter spent 'stuck in the middle with green', along comes 'Spring', and all is reversed...You couldn't make it up!

 

image.thumb.png.eedecb140cbfe4fc81aa468eb9647a95.png

 

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

So Ukmo and gfs going for very cold air next week. Ecm not so keen, but it's run was on top of the ensemble pack and a clear outlier towards the end , some other of irs runs were much colder. 

Next set of runs will be interesting! 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And, even then, the cold isn't going to give-up without one last counter-attack!

 

image.thumb.png.6ac31ff5b963cb58f92674b71ad5c730.pngimage.thumb.png.75951c19a892bae8b24c9e743815316d.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And, even then, the cold isn't going to give-up without one last counter-attack!

 

image.thumb.png.6ac31ff5b963cb58f92674b71ad5c730.pngimage.thumb.png.75951c19a892bae8b24c9e743815316d.png 

That cold counter-attack looks rather flaccid to me Ed..it lacks tumescence:shok:

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

 

 

Can we have an indeterminate delay, please?:oldgood:

 

Anyway the control run looks exceptionally cold and snowy.

gens-0-1-168.thumb.png.f1429bfec9e37c89e32031c44060eaa5.pnggens-0-0-168.thumb.png.d9d5457824fe30701f8daefafa499056.pnggens-0-2-180.thumb.png.1555f0347c87f06a51b28dfdab257dc4.png

Here are the 06z short ENS for central England...

graphe_ens3.thumb.gif.17b791dd6d7b8b5b70ae6a1c416657db.gif

Edited by Mapantz
Removed political comment
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

.....

gens-0-1-252.png

gens-0-0-252.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The 6z parallel gets a happy ending!:shok:

GFSPARAEU06_312_1.png

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GFSPARAEU06_372_1.png

GFSPARAEU06_372_17.png

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

Will very very likely change on the next run, but the 06Z GFS operational run shows a puny area of -10*C 850 hPa temperatures over North Eastern England at 192 hours.

839F2E93-76E9-4618-B8C2-032D9B1EAC97.thumb.png.36b4f2b3597b42e928d0c784c678fe19.png19EDD7AA-8BB0-421B-9304-BF669B9F050F.thumb.jpeg.301bb93fad9647205987d4f69c173ec5.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Interesting GEFS 6z longer term, increasing chance of high pressure but paradoxically an increasing risk of arctic shots beyond mid april.

GFSAVGEU06_324_1.png

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GFSAVGEU06_372_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_384_1.png

GFSP05EU06_372_2.png

GFSP17EU06_372_2.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

At least there's a better chance, now, that we'll be losing the unwelcome chill, come next weekend:

image.thumb.png.729a4aa14b3408582cb3e3f6b90dc67a.pngimage.thumb.png.33411071dd8db3f8ba4cfa0e55587e70.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The main question vis the end of the ecm det run this morning was essentially how much traction the trough pushing east and the the subtropical high north obtain against the incoming energy from the ENE. Looking at the clusters from 192 > 240 one would have to say the percentage play would be a fair amount but it's not a slam dunk

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019040500_192.thumb.png.584dde7b2474cf485de7ebee948c758a.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019040500_216.thumb.png.b98611ae48af66edb6c9cdda22d09d04.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019040500_240.thumb.png.e4e5246da30862b72d8a3fe5fea5dea9.png

And leaping forward 48 hours   ,,,,,,,,,,,,well at least we are in the warmer air

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019040500_288.thumb.png.5f024d62c95418ecbf053d91f8f0e553.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at a blend of the output so far today I think the form horse next week is for it to become rather cold with easterly or northeasterly winds  which is what the ukmo 0h in particular indicated..probably mainly dry but with a lot of cloud further east with the best of any sunshine for sheltered western areas...possibly a change to wetter but milder from the end of next week, at least for the sw / w?

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The aris-end of the FV3 looks okay. A few more like that, things'll start to look spiffing!

image.thumb.png.dd4e6e3e9f8148da93581706a875a4e6.pngimage.thumb.png.b8b07264971a33cf0c0f0992719a3fca.png 

GEFS Ensemble seems to disagree, at least to an extent: image.thumb.png.d14dcae8b91d4bd050a7b3b071899227.png 

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Afternoon all

I thought after the ECM 00Z we would like a general lifting of the threat of colder air for next week but the GFS 06Z OP and especially Control are superb output for cold weather fans not just in terms of severity but longevity with sub zero 850s lasting several days so cool, if not cold conditions and plenty of prospect for wintry convective activity.

Looking through the 06Z ENS, some agreement for maintaining an E'ly sourced air flow right out to T+240 with only a couple of members trying to being back the Atlantic. Not all the runs are cold with some bringing in warmer 850s but that's a detail to be resolved. After T+240 much more scatter as you'd expect so we'll see but certainly a strong possibility after a slightly milder weekend of an increasingly chilly regime during next week. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, stodge said:

the GFS 06Z OP and especially Control are superb output for cold weather fans not just in terms of severity but longevity with sub zero 850s lasting several days so cool, if not cold conditions and plenty of prospect for wintry convective activity.

Nothing wintry from those who cannot be named, rather cold at this time of year is high single to low double digits celsius..what we would require is a strong surge south of arctic air but I'm not seeing that on any model as far as the next 7-10 days is concerned..to be honest the idea of chilly dull north sea filth next week is depressing and I would much prefer warm sunshine to that trash!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Nothing wintry from those who cannot be named, rather cold at this time of year is high single to low double digits celsius..what we would require is a strong surge south of arctic air but I'm not seeing that on any model as far as the next 7-10 days is concerned..to be honest the idea of chilly dull north sea filth next week is depressing and I would much prefer warm sunshine to that trash!

We would require the very coldest of the runs to verify to see any significant and widespread snowfall, something along the lines of the control with at least -7/-8c uppers getting in, I don't mind one last blast of Winter weather and then lets get the plume in for a warm and settled Easter.

ENS looking cold for a week or so there, then a good chance of milder weather after mid month.

graphe_ens3.thumb.gif.332e1046b48d1977304cf743ce495d6c.gif

But if by any chance I should get enough snow to build a small snowman, I'll get rid of my pic of the snowman biscuits, and put that up instead, an April snowman. ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, snowray said:

We would require the very coldest of the runs to verify to see any significant and widespread snowfall, something along the lines of the control with at least -7/-8c uppers getting in

I have no confidence in any meaningful cold, frost or snow if the experts don't even mention it..rather cold next week just isn't good enough at this time of year to satisfy any coldies who have ventured out of hibernation..that doesn't preclude the chance of one last hoorah though as long as the pros are on-board but they aint.

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford

Expect no more than some snow on the mountains and sleet if you're lucky lower down. Some of us got very lucky with snow this winter, but most didn't. I'm hoping for a hot summer again with some thunderstorms mixed in. Cold-hunting for me will start again in November!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

I have no confidence in any meaningful cold, frost or snow if the experts don't even mention it..rather cold next week just isn't good enough at this time of year to satisfy any coldies who have ventured out of hibernation..that doesn't preclude the chance of one last hoorah though as long as the pros are on-board but they aint.

I mentioned this a few days ago and yesterday Karl, namely non of the senior forecasters on netweather or Exeter are going with anything significantly cold enough for major snowfall to occur! While it's nice to see some of the runs pumping out really cold scenarios, it's like I said the other day.... About a 10% chance! I stand to be corrected though, and quite frankly, I hope I am!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
13 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I mentioned this a few days ago and yesterday Karl, namely non of the senior forecasters on netweather or Exeter are going with anything significantly cold enough for major snowfall to occur! While it's nice to see some of the runs pumping out really cold scenarios, it's like I said the other day.... About a 10% chance! I stand to be corrected though, and quite frankly, I hope I am!

ICON not looking very cold at all now, guess its back to hibernation mode for me too then.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
6 minutes ago, snowray said:

ICON not looking very cold at all now, guess its back to hibernation mode for me too then.

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Question is.... Are we looking at a major backtrack from all the models now! If so, then that's gonna be pretty sad.... Garden path perhaps yet again! 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Perhaps all not lost! Icon making a decent job of having that stubborn cold pool over us till the end of the run perhaps! 

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