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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Short ens:cold:

graphe_ens3_knn4.thumb.gif.a97e990852c8f6e04bfcd279d1001270.gif

waiting for the ext ones shortly.

Edit:they are out...double :cold::cold:compared to the 12z.,could this be a prelonged cold spell in april???

graphe_ens3_chm9.thumb.gif.944f8ab36762bf5665a07c5738933942.gifgraphe_ens3_fjj4.thumb.gif.3af398d2ced38ab88157d0a84bd5a1d8.gif

thermals at the ready.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

FV3 brings a resurgence of high pressure at T336:

image.thumb.jpg.71a85fa8cb65e1294ec7ceb84dc78b33.jpg

Twists and turns in the medium timeframe, with some interesting cold synoptics,  but I think this is the direction of travel towards the Easter weekend.  

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Gfs continues to throw out stunning winter synoptics...7 days away and a January '82 chart....

 

GFSOPEU00_180_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Gfs not as good from a coldie perspective as the low to the south is slightly further north but looks amazing stilll!!!ukmo looks brilliant!!!over to the ecm!!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Outlook - the upper trough which has been a pain over the last few days will become very negatively tilted to the SW over the weekend

The NH 500mb profile and Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 sat image

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.9eafb5d282dfdef70574452594a2e1d0.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.e4f5ffd6989e5b6da2d6ad44dd4e6c30.gifgeo.thumb.JPG.307853a62ff02602046a3a379f411bb6.JPG

The sat image illustrates the current position quite well with the low over Ireland and the patch of moderate rain over Wales. Thus will track quickly north west into N. Ireland this morning but further pulses of rain will run north into Cornwall ,Devon and south Wales by late morning and through the afternoon, courtesy of the waving front trailing south down the west coast of France. Apart from the far NE where drips and drabs of rain are still around elsewhere it will be relatively pleasant and generally temps on the up except in the south west where they will be depressed under the cloud and rain

687047483_maxf.thumb.png.5255408482de30e60ad22111a1d33967.pngp11.thumb.png.d80609a7bbe32ababfb99fd49764431b.pngp14.thumb.png.ca3c8c61eb2bd6c63fdd3fee0f9fbaae.pngp18.thumb.png.cbba03ed0a5ebc82fd13857d40590411.png

Through this evening and overnight the cloud and showery rain will persist in the south west but elsewhere should be dry but our old friend the front to the east is returning to the fold bringing some low cloud and patchy rain/drizzle to eastern coastal regions by dawn on saturday

PPVE89.thumb.gif.9b6d8fa313d3446ff1d1e514ee864adb.gif725183245_mins.thumb.png.ac1d517b454926e7fd13ceca2a67f33c.png

The pattern change mentioned at the start is now underway and apart from Cornwall, where cloud and patchy rain will persist, the western half of the country will have a fine and dry day but the front is now sliding south west down the country so cloud and patchy drizzle in north east and eastern regions and thus quite cool

PPVG89.thumb.gif.eb3e2b98cc9dfb071da8a6c65c430f12.gifr15.thumb.png.96e020fe7af75eb84e8e5c6d7f82828f.png284701731_maxs.thumb.png.52e6aa4085742cfeafbc5190e717d7f9.png

Over Saturday night and through Sunday the front will stall across the country creating a bit of a split with patchy drizzle in Scotland and the north east and much cooler with the onshore breeze but quite warm and dry south of the front although some patchy rain may effect the south west from an occlusion in the Channel

PPVI89.thumb.gif.2e8cc1e8d1cde7a7c4e25f4fd9d5f679.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.e7d2d7ddeed79424fc13095a24532ec0.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.6a25b614499821e14f97a368caaecccc.png

Monday portends to be quite warm and dry  as well.generally with temps above average but the weakening front is still across the country so still some cloud and patchy drizzle associated with this and another wave has crept up from the south west and the associated occlusion may bring some rain to the south west.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.2244911164bb2bb304513ff41f2a1c0d.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.ee7ff71a10da3a5a00856dcc89de4c1b.png

A marked regional contrast on Tuesday as a cold front has slipped south down th North sea, associated with a wave that has formed over Finland, and this has introduced much colder air in the North and north east with some showers. Whilst further south it will be cloudy but quite warm and maybe still some patchy drizzle as the old front still lingers.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.d52c72f8f3cd8baadf7023e7c199df47.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.12e26e33f10093166ab318ea24cdc175.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Very messy ecm at 144 hours compared to 12z!!!just get the feeling from a coldie perspective that we wont get enough disruption under the block or disruption in a favourable way which means it all ends up messy and we either get a high over us or atlantic coming in!!to be fair i would rather the high over us!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z is showing a complete white out next wednesday..I know there is a colder trend next week but this is insane!!:shok:❄️

120_mslp500.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

So continuing with the gfs. This is the position at t120

gfs_z500_vort_natl_21.thumb.png.f84d1bef08a07208c8af4c5fdc0b8bf4.png

By t156 (midday Thursday) the trough over Finland  has slid south west along the south east introducing much colder air over the UK in a still easterly wind with showers along the east coast and temps in the 5-10C range with the former along the eastern coastal regions Not dissimilar on Friday, perhaps a tad colder in the 4-8C range with some rain creeping in to the south west Another cold day with showers in eastern coastal region on Saturday but warmer air with rain is effecting the south west

gfs_z500_vort_natl_27.thumb.png.a4ac6ec8225db0116209a128e3cbacaf.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_31.thumb.png.00d7488a6452aa84843f9a50d199e3aa.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_36.thumb.png.b66b15ebaff065f6ec796a252a14cf07.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm on Thursday has the trough over southern Scandinavia with a front just west of Cornwall with the UK in a light south easterly with temps in the 6-13C with the former in the north and north east Friday a day of marked contrasts with a south easterly still but cloud and rain has spread in from the south west so cold generally north of the front with a much warmer area south of the M4 We are talking 7-9/10-12C The battle between the front and the colder air continues over the weekend. But of course all of this is subject to adjustment

t156.thumb.png.9869b074d816177b427a9f731dda9153.pngt180.thumb.png.8c4feb0df4779b72cdcf28cc59cd4acd.pngt234.thumb.png.0932d0270b7a7eb1c0ea979ceb3c45c0.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

The ECM op a clear outlier for most of the run . Or is it a new trend ?? 

D92D4C86-089C-42D3-840C-DA6CB4E6EC41.png

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
2 hours ago, shaky said:

Gfs not as good from a coldie perspective as the low to the south is slightly further north but looks amazing stilll!!!ukmo looks brilliant!!!over to the ecm!!

Might want to check what weather these charts will give us. Most of us will be stuck in a no man's land of 5-8C. Not cold enough for snow and too cold to go outside and enjoy this alleged Spring.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The EPS tells a similar story as the det run. A brief influx of colder air around the south east flank of the high cell across southern Scandinavia over the middle and end of next week. And then as he center of the high transfers west and weakens warmer air will gradually push in from the west as the trough regains a semblance of dominance, overall temps still probably a tad below normal

index.thumb.png.acaf365903da1f5b8e69ef1d1a30e3b5.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean clearly shows a milder trend towards the end and the colder period in the middle isn't as cold as last nights 12z..in the meantime, an increasingly warmer weekend with a risk of heavy showers in the east on sunday.

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
20 minutes ago, BlazeStorm said:

Winta iz cummin

Not according to the ECM it isnt! The cold pool largely being kept to our NE, with much warmer  conditions making inroads beyond day 7.

ECM0-216.gif

ECM0-240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

A couple more have been removed. On topic please.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

UKMO and ECM certainly not on the same page! Somethings gorra give! UKMO sending us very much colder! 

UW144-7.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Pick out the odd center or two. We had a brief interlude down here but Cs and Ac have quickly encroached from the south

geo.thumb.JPG.210589db5f909020c58faa143f8ce208.JPGPPVA89.thumb.gif.dd2091649f5813037def7fb842f99e25.gif

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
14 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

UKMO sending us very much colder! 

UW144-7.gif

Yes indeed, the ukmo is not backing down at all, out of curiosity, I would really like to find out how wintry it is possible to get towards mid april.

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
33 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Not according to the ECM it isnt! The cold pool largely being kept to our NE, with much warmer  conditions making inroads beyond day 7.

ECM0-216.gif

ECM0-240.gif

Let's just hope you're right, Matt...GFS at T+117: image.thumb.png.6354721d3e03aa3fcf2b331afe8ac751.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Only just seen these but certainly encouraging signs towards easter.

GFSAVGEU00_330_1.png

GFSAVGEU00_354_1.png

GFSAVGEU00_378_1.png

F1E4CD7A-ED68-496F-9C37-A166975CEDAA.gif.b4e6f22aad13edd1c74905175d85f0e3.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Man overboard, ship ahoy! Direct hit from the the 12z! Ooocchhh! 

gfs-1-144.png

gfs-1-150.png

gfs-1-168.png

23089799-boom-in-pop-art.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

6z

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Someone please tell the weather gods that it's no longer January? Not that it ever was!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.68cc4ebe25777b9b265aaa8911a6550a.png

Can we have an indeterminate delay, please?:oldgood:

Edited by Ed Stone
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