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Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

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Posted (edited)

As I was saying, late April 1981 redux is possible if the Ecm keeps churning out runs like the 12z!😜

CFSR_1_1981042518_1.png

CFSR_1_1981042518_2.png

240_mslp500.png

 

240_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

As I was saying, late April 1981 redux is possible if the Ecm keeps churning out runs like the 12z!😜

CFSR_1_1981042518_1.png

CFSR_1_1981042518_2.png

240_mslp500.png

 

240_mslp850.png

I think I'd rather have a hole in my head than see another April like 1981...But you are right, karl, such an ecological disaster is not altogether out of the question...Not only does the FV3 take a month of Sundays getting the cold in, it also takes forever and a day to get rid of it:

image.thumb.png.2ebd1027a54efbe3c7650f30ba30f558.pngimage.thumb.png.acb43e5419715379522657ec480c8073.png 

I too worry about the potential for damaging frosts!

GEFS 12Z temp ensemble also paints a grim picture:

image.thumb.png.c5e143bd60534b76a6b8a0b300f1bb19.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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The ecm in the ball park as the gfs

At t144 an upper trough over Scandinavia and a north easterly surface wind over the UK, dry with temps from Scotland south 5-10C

At t168 the trough edges south east and still a very slack NE wind over the UK with showers along the east coast, particularly in Scotland Temps 5-9C

At t192 the weakening trough now over the UK and phasing with the trough to the south resulting a similar wind profile but far more general showers . Temp 5-8C

t144.thumb.png.a80ba79b5bf9f28e3dc205ac6edcddb5.pngt168.thumb.png.d475e284947c1cb23226cc71598f57ae.pngt192.thumb.png.57f8cf24f8ddba45146da99af5f6efb6.png

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@feb1991blizzard

The ECM Day 11 could see that feature developing deeply in the South ... 

All academic but interesting to look at...

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24 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think I'd rather have a hole in my head than see another April like 1981...But you are right, karl, such an ecological disaster is not altogether out of the question...Not only does the FV3 take a month of Sundays getting the cold in, it also takes forever and a day to get rid of it:

image.thumb.png.2ebd1027a54efbe3c7650f30ba30f558.pngimage.thumb.png.acb43e5419715379522657ec480c8073.png 

I too worry about the potential for damaging frosts!

GEFS 12Z temp ensemble also paints a grim picture:

image.thumb.png.c5e143bd60534b76a6b8a0b300f1bb19.png

Would be interesting to see what happened to nature should we now get a run of harsh frosts. Given the fact trees have come into leaf early etc. 

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This typically happens after an early start with February early warmth to blame.

April turns out to be the most interesting month of them all with spectacular april showers of recent days and snow.

Recm1681.gif

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Evening All ! Even colder next week , April darling you have got the Coldies a belated presant ...Thanks April 😅

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The ext mean EPS is still more or less on the same ground as recent runs. The high pressure relaxes and moves west to Greenland which restricts N or NE advection of colder air into the UK. At the same time a very slack gradient develops in the MW Atlantic with troughs tracking across the southern US south of it but the westerly upper flow backs a tad in the eastern Atlantic courtesy of the subtropical ridge attempting to push north east. The detail will be sorted nearer the time but possibly the more unsettled weather to the south and the temps a tad below average.

8-13.thumb.png.0d81abc0397c67a33edfb0881f76f401.png

given that the evolution is a bit tricky tonight's NOAA is in not bad agreement with this

814day_03.thumb.gif.e9d46a89122bfec952fc5ef6ad351d13.gif

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It's really annoying seeing such synoptics in April....dreams of what could have been etc. What it does tell us though is unusual weather and climate is here to stay and that mid winter northern blocking (once thought gone for good during the 90s) is a firm favourite in upcoming winters! 

Also I think such cold next week is quite similar to last year's Spring and we all know what happened in early Summer

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Well the winter after April 1981 was sort of alright I believe.

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It's looking pretty spicy at 150hrs on the 18s...looks like gfs wants a piece of the action to. 

gfs-1-144.png

gfs-1-150.png

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

It's looking pretty spicy at 150hrs on the 18s...looks like gfs wants a piece of the action to. 

Yes - snorter!!

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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A week today and the cold marches in according to the pub run at T168:

image.thumb.jpg.5845f14ba94625ca13a76bc0f89d57dc.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.684b66a19f291f672d6b5b03557f5538.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.c6ccaa0b4d6edbc11e05a8430dd351ee.jpg

Should be quite a bit of precipitation with that rather unstable flow, which at this time of year, could fall as pretty much anything.  

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Posted (edited)

Me love it long time! - 8 uppers moving down from the North. 

So much cold pooling to our North has we approach day 10,the warm air being kept well away from our shores! This is literally a winter heaven scenario, but even now it could bring quite a few surprises. 

gfs-1-180.png

gfs-1-234.png

gfs-0-234.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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If posts that just contain if this was January or the Met Office forecasts have been poor, then the posts in question will disappear.

Thanks! 👊

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best looking charts for cold since march 2013,in springtime again,lol.

Could see snow to most levels in heavier showers 

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Posted (edited)

Only the Truelly die hard stay up for the midnight pub run! Or the stupid 😉 18z finally starting to push milder air up from the South in the latter stages, lot of weather to cover between now and then though! 

gfs-1-312.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Bizzare end to the 18s, looks like one hell of a ding dong battle between fidgid air to the North and much warmer air to the South, even right at the end there is still very cold air to our North trying to get a foot hold! But just look at how warm the airmass is to our South at this point.... Totally mesmerising, now that's what winters should be all about.... Better late than never I suppose! 👍

gfs-1-384.png

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6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Only the Truelly die hard stay up for the midnight pub run! Or the stupid 😉 18z finally starting to push milder air up from the South in the latter stages, lot of weather to cover between now and then though! 

gfs-1-312.png

Depends on what shift folk are on but i am on the late shift this week

aside...

i am keeping my eyes on the feature to the SW (a runner)of which could deliver a supprise later on with cold air entrenched over the BI,could be a snow maker before i would of thought that milder weather nudges in from the SW,a long way off but nearer term,anyone could see snow falling or settling as we go through next week.

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Posted (edited)

The fv3 not interested but the control is a thing of beauty

at day ten..

gensnh-0-1-240.thumb.png.8ff71dd0c510bd7faaa6cd3ac0d01d68.png

not overly cold but the synoptics are mouthwatering:shok:

cannot wait for the 18z ens.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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