Arctic Sea Ice - The Melting Season 2019

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Of course, always think positive - it’s nothing a super-volcanic eruption or nuclear winter won’t fix

But still more likely than the globe's current crop of w*****s (I mean leaders) pulling their collective finger out!

[cheeky_monkey]

31 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But still more likely than the globe's current crop of w*****s (I mean leaders) pulling their collective finger out!

should realize at your age the world is run by big business not global leaders

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

should realize at your age the world is run by big business not global leaders

You're not suggesting the unthinkable -- that world leaders are merely sock puppets of various elites -- are you? A truly astounding revelation!

[Don]

2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I really do think a mammoth re-thinking of the way we all live is the only way we can come even remotely close to keeping this planet like it is for the next generation - but I really, really have my doubts if that would ever even begin to happen 

Sadly I agree.  I do not think the way of living will change enough to arrest climate change.

[Singularity]

2 hours ago, Don said:

Could well be worth doing, otherwise there’s a risk it will cost far more in the long term!

This is the point that too many in high positions of power demonstrate a stubborn inability to accept, regardless of the science. Though I understand that finding the money isn't going to be easy for a lot of countries; some sacrifices will be inevitable if sufficient developments are to be made. I wonder, with all the increased awareness now, how many in the UK would be happy to forgo some luxuries in exchange for combating climate change? I suppose the problem is then achieving enough belief that the climate can be saved, for which enough sacrifice-making needs to be seen, which needs enough belief... a toublesome catch-22 situation.

Not necessarily unbreakable, though, so I'm very glad to see Sir David Attenborough taking big strides to increase the level of belief toward that which is needed.

[Gray-Wolf]

Though not strictly 'melt season' I think Sea ice is one area capable of awakening folk to the peril we face?

Talking in another place about the speed of ice loss this year some joe pipes up with " it's always the same this time of year" not even noticing the change in ice edge for the Pacific/Atlantic entrances. The current melt may be just as impacting as past years but the conditions to provide us with the losses are now further north.

I'm sure I'm not alone in noting the change to our weather here in the UK the last 2 years with Highs seeming to be the 'go to' when we reset and not the constant run of Atlantic depressions and rain?

This year is more pronounced than last year so I expect Summer to be drier and sunnier than last year but how will this impact our side of the basin?

Will we see active export as lows are pushed up the east of greenland and into the basin?

Will the scandi high force weather into our side of the basin leading to rapid break up ready for export?

Will Yamal go 'POP'?

Edited April 13, 2019 by Gray-Wolf

[Don]

20 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

 

This year is more pronounced than last year so I expect Summer to be drier and sunnier than last year but how will this impact our side of the basin?

Well that will please many but not water companies!   Certainly not good in the mid to long term though. Unfortunately I can’t see much being done about it until it’s too late!

[Gray-Wolf]

Still record low for this date of the year on JAXA ( by over 1/4 million sq km!!!!) and so more sea surface open to solar impacts and turning into 'kill zones' for floated off ice later in the season.

These zones also have issues shedding enough heat to allow freezing at the end of melt season leading to a shorter period of ice cover ( if covered at all?) and so longer under 'normal ocean processes' allowing further degradation of the Arctic's unique stratification of the oceans upper levels.

Mix out the Halocline and you turn the ocean into the kind of beast we see around Antarctica and that only holds seasonal ice and is open all summer.....

[Geordiesnow]

On 17/04/2019 at 11:24, Gray-Wolf said:

Still record low for this date of the year on JAXA ( by over 1/4 million sq km!!!!) and so more sea surface open to solar impacts and turning into 'kill zones' for floated off ice later in the season.

These zones also have issues shedding enough heat to allow freezing at the end of melt season leading to a shorter period of ice cover ( if covered at all?) and so longer under 'normal ocean processes' allowing further degradation of the Arctic's unique stratification of the oceans upper levels.

Mix out the Halocline and you turn the ocean into the kind of beast we see around Antarctica and that only holds seasonal ice and is open all summer.....

Although i am somewhat surprised too see extent not rejoining the pack giving the slight growth again in the Kara and bering stright, it would seem the main culprits for such a low extent is Baffin Bay and of course the Bering sea  so im not sure any basin ice will be going into any kill zones apart from the natural fram stright.

Will extent slow down? Possibly given baffin bay is likely too be colder than normal  and the bering stright is likely to remain cold although ice pulling away from the Alaskan coast is a possibilty.

Talking of ice pulling away from the coast, that is what happening now in the Beaufort with help from the Beaufort gyre, be interesting what the ice condition will be like in the next 5 to 7 days given high pressure is set to remain dominant across the basin and forecast to strengthen. Although the models agree on the high gaining strength, the orientation and positioning of the high is yet to be nailed. I must stress though, this high is a true Arctic high and not a high ridging in from lower latitudes so it should remain around average to slightly below across most parts of the basin and no WAA is forecast as of yet. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Well we're nearly into May and still on the 'perfect melt storm trajectory...... yet without the help of 'perfect melt storm' weather.......which is a bit of a worry.....

But then has this not what the last 5 years of over winter 'preconditioning' of the pack been all about?

Easing our way to a pack that an 'average' weather summer would take to near ice free ( and so lead to another low ice year the next year?) no matter what summer brought?

That 'near ice free' scares the bejeebers out of me purely on the impact it will have on the unique stratification of the Arctic Ocean? Without that nurturing top Halocline the warmth, that already exists at depth, will be free to help limit ice over winter so ensure ice free the year after ( and that flip from discarding over 90% of all the energy incoming to one able to take in over 90% of the incoming energy.......remembering that at solstice the Arctic takes in a wallop bigger than at any time of the year at our equator!)

This year?

We'll see....... 

[Geordiesnow]

Talking of perfect storm melt weather, it looks very likely the pacific side the basin will recieve the perfect pre conditioning set up for ice melt as the dreaded pacific ridge is going to make another appearance. Very early in the season and the "warmth" is impressive with temps around 0C quite widely forecasted. However too me, whats perhaps is more concerning yet quite interesting is some model runs really want to create a very tight gradient between high and low pressure so very strong winds blowing from the pacific side towards the Atlantic side. Either way, it looks like the ice in the Bering and the Chuckchi could soon become vulnable and its one to watch for sure. Must also add, some runs are less severe like the GFS 18Z was compared to the GFS12Z but make no mistake, a parttern change is on the way for the end of April and into May as the Arctic will experience an early dose of summer it seems. 

[Gray-Wolf]

When we see the potential for a strong dipole to set up over the basin my mind wanders to 'individual floe size and the impact on speed of travel small floes allow'?

The past 5 years has seen quite a different Basin over summer to the latter years of the noughties that saw the 06 and 07 events?

But whilst being cloudy and cool we did not see strong 'export' out of Fram?

This year it seems like we may see the dipoles that feed Fram its cargo of ice?

It is not just the UK seeing a lot more time under HP of late and whether this is merely low solar tweaking things ,or a combination of Low Solar/AGW/Naturals, is missing the point that we may well see the pack shunted from the Pacific side of the basin into our side of the basin>

With Barentsz again very low on ice the waters there will be able  to become a 'killing zone' south of Svalbard

It will also peel away Beauforts ice early doors and lead to that area soaking up a lot of energy over the season?

If the Greenie High comes back in the way we saw it over 2012 then the North of Greenland will also see its ice struggle (what used to be seen as our 'banker ice'?).

Anyhoos , plenty of other things ready to kick off.

The high over Alaska will draw in warm airs from the Pacific speeding snow melt across the regions impacted so we might see our hemisphere's snow cover take an early dive adding into the woes of the basin ( loss of snow cover impacts up to 1,500km away).

Edited April 24, 2019 by Gray-Wolf

[Geordiesnow]

3 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

When we see the potential for a strong dipole to set up over the basin my mind wanders to 'individual floe size and the impact on speed of travel small floes allow'?

The past 5 years has seen quite a different Basin over summer to the latter years of the noughties that saw the 06 and 07 events?

But whilst being cloudy and cool we did not see strong 'export' out of Fram?

This year it seems like we may see the dipoles that feed Fram its cargo of ice?

It is not just the UK seeing a lot more time under HP of late and whether this is merely low solar tweaking things ,or a combination of Low Solar/AGW/Naturals, is missing the point that we may well see the pack shunted from the Pacific side of the basin into our side of the basin>

With Barentsz again very low on ice the waters there will be able  to become a 'killing zone' south of Svalbard

It will also peel away Beauforts ice early doors and lead to that area soaking up a lot of energy over the season?

If the Greenie High comes back in the way we saw it over 2012 then the North of Greenland will also see its ice struggle (what used to be seen as our 'banker ice'?).

Anyhoos , plenty of other things ready to kick off.

The high over Alaska will draw in warm airs from the Pacific speeding snow melt across the regions impacted so we might see our hemisphere's snow cover take an early dive adding into the woes of the basin ( loss of snow cover impacts up to 1,500km away).

The beaufort ice has already been pulling away with this high pressure in control, it does look like winds will die down here and may even tempory switch direction so a small respite there but all eyes(or at least mine are) will be on the Bering straight and into parts of the Chuckchi sea with the strong and for the time of year warm winds forecast, we saw what it did in February but now we are heading into May, will we see early melt ponds forming... how much ice will get push away from the Siberian coastline and just how much open water will we see in this region when this spell of weather ends? 

One slight crumb of comfort is that the ice would of been compacted nicely with the recent weather conditions so impacts may not be felt as quickly as one might think? Either way, an interesting spell of weather coming up for sure. 

[Singularity]

Looks like we’re heading for the magnitude and strength of dipole pattern that the Arctic has been lucky to avoid for so many May-Julys in a row. Still, thankfully, a bit too soon to maximise impacts... or is it? 

Such anomalous warmth as to produce above-freezing temps on the Pacific side perhaps throws the usual rules aside. After all, it’s not the sun that does the nasty work during dipole events, it’s the warm and moist airflow that has a lot of latent heat to transfer to the ice (and snow).

Large snow cover loss on the N American side also likely too, which primes those regions for strong heat builds as we head to mid-May.

Remains to be seen, though, whether the impacts will be as severe as they could feasibly be; the exact flow direction will be crucial (toward open Atlantic bad, toward Greenland less so thanks to compaction bonus) as well as whether there’s any overcooking of the temps by the models at the current range.

 

Worst case scenario heading into mid-May would then be the major blocking high not only persisting but drifting across the Arctic Ocean. However, I imagine it should at least become much weaker (if not subside totally) by this stage, as the boost from the final warming of the stratospheric vortex gives way.

[Geordiesnow]

5 hours ago, Singularity said:

Looks like we’re heading for the magnitude and strength of dipole pattern that the Arctic has been lucky to avoid for so many May-Julys in a row. Still, thankfully, a bit too soon to maximise impacts... or is it? 

Such anomalous warmth as to produce above-freezing temps on the Pacific side perhaps throws the usual rules aside. After all, it’s not the sun that does the nasty work during dipole events, it’s the warm and moist airflow that has a lot of latent heat to transfer to the ice (and snow).

Large snow cover loss on the N American side also likely too, which primes those regions for strong heat builds as we head to mid-May.

Remains to be seen, though, whether the impacts will be as severe as they could feasibly be; the exact flow direction will be crucial (toward open Atlantic bad, toward Greenland less so thanks to compaction bonus) as well as whether there’s any overcooking of the temps by the models at the current range.

 

Worst case scenario heading into mid-May would then be the major blocking high not only persisting but drifting across the Arctic Ocean. However, I imagine it should at least become much weaker (if not subside totally) by this stage, as the boost from the final warming of the stratospheric vortex gives way.

Quite a few model runs does indeed place the high right into the Arctic with its WAA with it, the ECM is quite bullish with this it seems.

The GFS and UKMO runs do offer perhaps a slight complication of a low pressure cell forming and trying to fend off the ridge although it still forecast to ridge in strongly on the GFS despite that. The ECM is having none of that and is going full on ridge mode.

Early indications do seem to be if the pacific ridge does enter the basin, its here to stay and surely cant be good news for the ice across the pacific regions? 

[Geordiesnow]

Well the fun and games are now starting with what looks like a very prolonged dipole pattern with the ice in the Bering stright already lifting from the Siberian coastline and heading Northwards so just how much open water will we see in the Bering stright by this time next week will be interesting.

The attempted trough that will try to disrupt the ridge is clear on forecast to have little effect on the overall pattern and the model runs do look rather alarming in the sence of the strength and persistence of this dipole pattern. Only May 2011 had a similar pattern although it occured later on in the month and there was much more upper level heat as the ridge came in from a very warm Alaska however this set up looks alot windier and its the winds imo that can cause more damage than any warmth, at least at this time of year. 

[Singularity]

Models keen on having the large highs then hang around across the Arctic Ocean for quite a while after the dipole event. A gradual weakening trend though with some shallow lows starting to crop up by mid-May. If and when (how soon) those manage to feature will be very important; the potential melt from solar forcing increases massively as May progresses.

The UK looks to receive some of the exported Arctic air as it warms out. Or at least the western fringes. Will place a timely emphasis on what's going on well to the north.

[Geordiesnow]

13 hours ago, Singularity said:

Models keen on having the large highs then hang around across the Arctic Ocean for quite a while after the dipole event. A gradual weakening trend though with some shallow lows starting to crop up by mid-May. If and when (how soon) those manage to feature will be very important; the potential melt from solar forcing increases massively as May progresses.

The UK looks to receive some of the exported Arctic air as it warms out. Or at least the western fringes. Will place a timely emphasis on what's going on well to the north.

Yep May northerlies over the UK is usually a bad sign for the Arctic as the cold air is over us instead of the Arctic ocean.

Although there is signs of the high trying to migrate towards the pole to allow shallow troughing to develop, its not a strong signal and i will not be surprised too see the dipole continuing for many days to come. 

Over 100k drop today on Jaxa also with ice loss pretty big over Bering and the Bering stright, keep an eye on the Beaufort sea in a few days time also, perfect set up for ice to pull away from the coast after a bit of a respite. 

I have a feeling this melting season will be similar to 2017 where melt on the Pacific side will be quite rapid although i do hope i am wrong on that one. 

[Singularity]

  

I'm not a fan of using surface temps due to modelling inadequacies but this does at least sum up the progression well; an intense surge of warmth from the Pacific followed by a smaller but still noteworthy one via Alaska, both of which then swirl around as the blocking high drifts over the Arctic Ocean.

Some sudden changes in the 00z runs toward the HLB staying strong for longer. Not currently looking to maintain the dipole but I can see the potential that you're sensing, @Geordiesnow.

Looking like a difficult time for those seeing sustained warm and dry weather in the UK, though it's more the warmth that'll be lacking away from the north at least; rainfall looks to be in the form of scattered showers, a few becoming thunderstorms, as the sun-heated surface interacts with the unusually cold upper levels. The convection being a key part of the process by which the ex-Arctic cold air will be warmed out (latent heat release). Question is, how long will more ex-Arctic air keep being driven our way? In theory it should become less and less cold to begin with.

If and when we see blue ocean events (1 mn or less sq. km of sea ice), northerlies will cease to be cold at all. Initially in late Aug and most of Sep. What a scary thought (climate-wise).

[Singularity]

Been contemplating the driving forces behind the exceptional HLB episode that the models are still trending stronger and longer with.

1. The first later than usual final warming of the polar stratospheric vortex for many-a-year. In fact they've been tending to be earlier than usual, helping the Arctic to dodge a HP-dominated scenario for May-Jun.
2. A powerful convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) propagating steadily east across the Indian Ocean and later Pacific Ocean, with some intense tropical cyclone activity in tandem. This is especially culpable for the strong surges of anomalous warmth into the Arctic which in turn 'pumps up' the HLB via increased upper-level warmth (as that air gradually cools and descends). 
3. Low solar activity, which may have increased the amount of warming occurring during the FW event - this one's uncertain but I thought it worth mentioning in case anyone had any insight on it.

[Geordiesnow]

Looking at NASA worldview and just seeing the state of the ice around the Bering Stright and Chuckchi Sea, it really looks terrible and unprecedented. The ice has already lifted from the Siberian shoreline, the ice around the Wrangel Island looks cracked and diffused. And we are not even in summer yet, it makes you dread how the ice will react when we do get proper heat entering the basin. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Geordiesnow!

This is what I have meant by the 'preconditioning of the pack' over winter to leave us with ever smaller ( on average) floes glued together with late formed ice? The late formed ice is first to go either by mechanical means or early melt. Ones the floes are free to roam they begin the process of mechanical weathering via constant 'bumps' with other floes. You will see 'slush puppy ice' between the floes where this smashed ice drops into the open water below ( to melt) and all of this 'loss' before temps swing above freezing for the season!

Smaller floes need less persuading into motion and will travel faster so 'export' becomes faster if the winds blow right. None of this needs 'warm' to cost us ice so the losses from the high Arctic can begin ever earlier leaving open water to soak up max insolation and so turn the waters 'hostile' to ice later in the season.

By that time of the season we only used to have 'bottom melt' to deal with but these days we have the spectre of side melt adding into the mix as floes fall below 100m diameter. If you imagine the heat penetrating the ice the you can see how the smaller the floe the bigger percentage of the floe is absorbing ocean warmth?

" When the ice goes it will go really fast" highlights this 'end time' for permanent ice across the basin via these new,smaller,floes and their 'qualities'?

[Singularity]

The mobility could be the dark horse in the Arctic sea ice 'race' to a blue ocean event, if you get what I mean.

With unusually persistent Pacific-Atlantic winds there could be a sort of 'blow-out' effect that leaves only the Canada-Greenland-shielded ice behind... not sure if the stage is quite set for that yet, but I sense it could be something that catches those who swear by the model simulations by surprise if and when it happens.

Thoughts like these have troubled my mind when watching programs that stress the need to act fast but still talk of the mid-21st Century for the first blue ocean events. If only we could be more certain, then if it was looking to happen much sooner, that could be used to inspire a more rapid and strong response.

[Gray-Wolf]

Agreed Singularity!

Those who still think we lose ice via in-situ temp rise do not appear to understand the dynamics of sea ice loss/ice sheet loss and the role non temperature forcings play once we pass the 'tipping point' that unleashes their inputs?

Be it reduction in floe size in the Arctic or the impacts of Marine Ice Cliff Instability in rapid ice loss from our remaining ice sheets?

And let us not forget the Arctic is within the 10 year window that promises the return of the 'perfect melt storm' of high melt/high transport we saw back in 07'!

Should we see its return with this thinner ,younger, smaller floe-ed Arctic Sea Ice pack we WILL go blue ocean!

And then what?

Do we even suspect the full impacts of such an event yet or will we be left 'describing' what comes to pass post event???

[Blessed Weather]

Latest Arctic Sea Ice News published by NSIDC on 2nd May:

Rapid ice loss in early April leads to new record low
"April reached a new record Arctic low sea ice extent. Sea ice loss was rapid in the beginning of the month because of declines in the Sea of Okhotsk. The rate of ice loss slowed after early April, due in part to gains in extent in the Bering and Barents Seas. However, daily ice extent remained at record low levels throughout the month."

One of the low-lights is the ongoing decline in 4+ year old sea ice:

".....sea ice age provides an early assessment of the areas most susceptible to melting out during the coming summer. The Arctic sea ice cover continues to become younger, and therefore, on average, thinner. Nearly all of the oldest ice (4+ year old), which once made up around 30 percent of the sea ice within the Arctic Ocean, is gone. As of mid-April 2019, the 4+ year-old ice made up only 1.2 percent of the ice cover."

 

The top maps compare Arctic sea ice age for (a) April 8 to 14, 1984, and (b) April 9 to 15, 2019. The time series (c) of mid-April sea ice age as a percentage of Arctic Ocean coverage from 1984 to 2019 shows the nearly complete loss of 4+ year old ice

Full report: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2019/05/rapid-ice-loss-in-early-april-leads-to-new-record-low/