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Arctic Sea Ice - The Melting Season 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
52 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Are the Siberian fires going to put significant additional pressure on the ice when the soot begins to settle? I’ve been reading about this extensively today and it sounds like it’s the last thing we need right now, but it’s happening.

Argument is that it will darken the ice and make it more susceptible to melting, supposedly.

We clearly don’t understand the balances that keep our atmosphere in check. This all seems far too ‘unprecidented’ for my liking

First i have heard but this surely won't be good news if they continue into October when we want the Siberian snow cover to be as extensive and move westward.

EDIT :  The only thing it could do though with such heat at surface with cold upper atmospheric troughs dropping down from the Arctic is cause everything to go Flash bang flash bang etc.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
55 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

First i have heard but this surely won't be good news if they continue into October when we want the Siberian snow cover to be as extensive and move westward.

EDIT :  The only thing it could do though with such heat at surface with cold upper atmospheric troughs dropping down from the Arctic is cause everything to go Flash bang flash bang etc.

Ha! Hope it’s not a driver for some kind of feedback or worsening event. Apparently a lot of these fires are being caused by heat lightning, so it’s possible you’re not too far from the truth

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Ha! Hope it’s not a driver for some kind of feedback or worsening event. Apparently a lot of these fires are being caused by heat lightning, so it’s possible you’re not too far from the truth

Mind you i want a big melt season in the Arctic so hopefully it increases the chances of blocking in winter, although with your username you probably prefer summer to winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Thats quite a nasty low for the time of year i would have thought approaching the artic.  i expect this little system may exacerbate  ice loss in the region. 

image.thumb.png.eb50bdee3de80cc05e5ee4d3c2f9d48a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Even with the sun getting ever lower in the sky any drop in albedo will have impact?

The bigger worry is what the fires are doing to the permafrost below?

Earlier in the year we saw sat. images of 'slumping/ground collapse' as the ice below melted out allowing collapse of the remaining materia?

Any biological reaction in that now melted material adds into our GHG's but then the hollows fill with water and we see methane become an issue as the material decomposes anorexically

I'm still waiting on updates for the Yamal and the 'mounds' that grew there in 2015/2016? 

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Posted
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL
16 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Mind you i want a big melt season in the Arctic so hopefully it increases the chances of blocking in winter, although with your username you probably prefer summer to winter.

Whats the use of blocking when there is no cold air to tap into, since the arctic has melted into oblivion? We're seeing it already. Synoptics needs to be more and more exceptional to get any good results.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

Whats the use of blocking when there is no cold air to tap into, since the arctic has melted into oblivion? We're seeing it already. Synoptics needs to be more and more exceptional to get any good results.

E'ly - land to the East will still cool down -, you might have a point in 500 years time if the whole lot has melted completely but not in our life time, yes it limits your options though.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Thanks for your efforts Kirkcaldy (& I'm sure many would benefit from reading through your links if not 'up to speed'??) but it was more the leading Russian permafrost Scientists statement that such structures (the over 7,000 'Pingo like Structures' that grew over 2016) had a 3 year 'lifespan' from growth to eruption?

If my maths correct that puts them going 'POP' in 2019's late summer?

I know we've all seen the massive slumping that the huge wildfires across Siberia has caused but not a word (yet?) from the Yamal?

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Posted
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL
4 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

E'ly - land to the East will still cool down -, you might have a point in 500 years time if the whole lot has melted completely but not in our life time, yes it limits your options though.

Generally speaking, the land to our east has not cooled down as much as it had done in previous years?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, parrotingfantasist said:

Generally speaking, the land to our east has not cooled down as much as it had done in previous years?

It can soon cool down quickly though, the beast was living proof of that.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

I do think the affects of wildfires and sea ice is minimal at best, the Arctic is generally quite dry so surely most of the soot from the fires would remain in the atmosphere and even in any rainfall, I doubt much soot would fall as the smoke will bee above cloud level? 

On the subject of melt, more signs we are slowing down now, at least in terms of area as its getting quite cold up there for the time of year in parts of the basin. We won't be breaking any records this year unless something extreme occurs and that is definately not in the forecast so I still say 2nd place is looking likely because of the momentum during the summer and the very high SSTS as a result. Let's just be grateful we are seeing the total opposite of the of August 2016 when that extraordinary dipole occurred which helped push true open water quite far northwards  and the ice around the pole was much more diffused than it is this year. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yes 2nd place is looking increasingly likely now, but its still a very bad summer season up there no matter how it is looked at. 

It'll be interesting to see how the Russian/Alaskan section of the Arctic develops over the next 2-3 months, they've had an exceptionally warm summer up there and the SSTs are way above normal bar small little upwelling pockets here and there. Could be a late freeze in that part unless the weather gods are kind and a subsequent thinner ice sheet over the top that is prone to melting out quicker.

2013 was thankfully an ok year for the arctic so the basic recuperated some of its losses in 2012, lets hope 2020 is also as kind, otherwise we may have yet another step down as we saw from 07 onwards.  

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

The soot tends to arrive on surges of relatively warm air which then cool and subside, sometimes with some rain or snow resulting. So there's high potential for at least some of it to be desposited on the ice, then buried by snow this autumn, to lie in wait until it can do some nasty work next summer.

It's concerning me that the modelling is favouring a lot of these warm air intrusions in the mid-range, as the troughs take a bit of a dive south from being over the Arctic, essentially opening doors through which mid-latitude lows are able to pass as a means of travelling to the Arctic perisphery, where they drive large-scale warm air advection into regions the Arctic.

npsh500.216.png npsh500.240.png


The ECM 00z seems especially 'wacky' for 2nd-3rd Sep, but there's plenty of time for this to potentially be toned down or even be replaced with another pattern.

 

In the meantime, there's some suggestion from satellite imagery that the intense storm advancing on the Pacific side of the Arctic Ocean from Canada may have done some significant damage to the ice in the western CAA. Hard to tell with a lot of cloud around though - hoping for a clearer, ahem, picture in the coming days.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
On 23/08/2019 at 11:13, kold weather said:

2013 was thankfully an ok year for the arctic so the basic recuperated some of its losses in 2012, lets hope 2020 is also as kind, otherwise we may have yet another step down as we saw from 07 onwards.  

We could certainly do with a decent winter, against the recent trend.

Unfortunately, this recent publication suggests that with an E QBO such as will be establishing during this winter (likely in place by Jan), a weaker polar vortex with more HLB episodes is encouraged by anomalously Arctic low sea ice.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL083095#.XRX3xINg9jM.twitter

This increases the likely number of warm air incursions / cold air displacements away. I'm not sure what it means for snow amounts, as while there may be less in the way of prolonged unstable conditions, those warm air incursions can bring a lot of moisture which in Jan-Feb then falls as snow in all but the most extreme cases (Dec more variable, but still strongly favouring snow ove rain).

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

NASA's AIRS Maps Carbon Monoxide from Brazil Fires.

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=7486

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Judah Cohen tweet 26th August:

"Arctic sea ice extent finally diverging from 2012 record low extent. New record low highly unlikely with more positive AO regime, negative polar cap geopotential height anomalies & even fresh snow. Now watching whether 2019 will beat 2007 for 2nd place low sea ice extent minima."

539380064_JudahCohenseaicetweet26Aug2019.thumb.jpg.05fe3dd74fa20bceb7567ef9d38b3d2d.jpg

Source: Twitter @judah47

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

A sharp levelling off is evident in the NSIDC sea ice extent charts:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

I was hopeful that the melt rate might slow down once the scattered ice patches detached from the main ice cap had melted out, but I didn't expect the slowdown to be as dramatic as this - it appears that the main organised clump of ice has melted very little over the past week.  There is still potential for further reductions in sea ice extent during September as we saw in 2005 and 2010, which is most likely to happen if we get warm southerly incursions from Siberia melting the edge of the ice to the north of Eurasia and pushing it towards the pole.  But it is looking extremely unlikely now that we will beat or even come close to the 2012 minimum.

Indeed, there's even a slight chance that we could see little or no further melting from now, as happened in the 2006 and 2015 melt seasons, which would place 2019's minimum at only 6th lowest.  I think between 2nd and 4th lowest looks most probable though, and I have a gut feeling that a melt event may happen around mid-September and push it up to 2nd lowest.

Nonetheless, this isn't a major cause for celebration - for most of the spring and summer we've been tracking lowest or second lowest, we just failed to get a repeat of the exceptional August melting that occurred in 2012.  2019's annual average sea ice extent still could end up as a contender for the lowest on record.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Is that earlier than usual?

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

All things considered the ice has held up fairly well. However it doesn't mean the refreeze when it starts properly will be any good. Fingers crossed it will be a good refreeze.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
3 hours ago, The PIT said:

All things considered the ice has held up fairly well. However it doesn't mean the refreeze when it starts properly will be any good. Fingers crossed it will be a good refreeze.

Has it though? Melt has been pretty rapid all Spring and summer with a very large opening in the Beaufort very early on in the season along with the Bering Stright. The ESS also melted very quickly thanks to an exceptionally warm June there so all in all, don't let the slowing down and the fact we are not reaching record lows cover up on what this melt season has been like. 

Extent will finish either 2nd lowest or 4th lowest, will we go under 4 million? There's a receding chance of that and we are losing the reverse dipole and replacing with almost a dipole type pattern so we may see some compaction and more in the way of extent dros. 

Can't wait for refreeze because there is alot of warm SSTS around! Could see a slow refreeze this year. 

Edited by Geordiesnow
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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
20 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

First increase in Ice on the 29th - only small but onwards & upwards!

 

If we've reached the years low ice extent it would be a record early date for that. I doubt we have reached that minimum.

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