Arctic Sea Ice - The Melting Season 2019

[Derecho]

Dread to think of what would happen if the ECM came off...

Thankfully lacking support but its getting to that time of the year when such storms can develop. It must be said that the Arctic Sea Ice thickness charts are of concern. Even if we don't get one of those storms things look fragile to say the least.

 

[Geordiesnow]

Well the threat of a deep low has diminished and the trends do seem to be a reverse dipole of some sorts developing, tbh as it has been recently the weather has been largely unremarkable but such the momentum that been built up in the first part of the melt season, extent is still lowest on record, there's barely any ice left at lower latitudes and we are on course to finish below 4 million in the extent figures. Even if we don't finish below that figure, it just covers the cracks that the ice is melting quicker in summer(especially this summer) and any persistent areas of warm high pressure cells is proving fatal for the ice on the pacific side of the basin. 

Refreeze could well be a slow one, could be some funn and games come October! 

[feb1991blizzard]

Corker - Looking good for winter, we are on target to go lower with sea ice extent than 2012, look what happened that winter.

 

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

[Devonian]

18 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Corker - Looking good for winter, we are on target to go lower with sea ice extent than 2012, look what happened that winter.

 

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Is there is such a correlation? Why wasn't the winter after the previous record low extent, 2007, cold? Or why wasn't it a warm winter here after the relatively high sea ice minimum of 2009?

The answer is because reducing Arctic sea ice means (if any conclusion can be drawn at all) more odd, generally warmer, weather not just that a record low extent means the following winter will be cold here.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Devonian said:

Is there is such a correlation? Why wasn't the winter after the previous record low extent, 2007, cold? Or why wasn't it a warm winter here after the relatively high sea ice minimum of 2009?

The answer is because reducing Arctic sea ice means (if any conclusion can be drawn at all) more odd, generally warmer, weather not just that a record low extent means the following winter will be cold here.

I used to think exactly the same to be honest, but BFTV did provide some evidence of more blocked winters, cannot remember whether it was just -AO's or -NAO's as well and cannot remember what months it was more likely in, neither was it exceptionally conclusive to the point of guaranteeing a cold winter, but there looked enough there in his analogues for UK cold and snow fans to wish for a good melt season, obviously for the very long term like 100 years, it is not good if you like cold weather to be seeing these melt seasons.

[knocker]

 

[Geordiesnow]

I think a minimum of under 4 million is very likely just looking at the weather forecast and the state of the ice. 

All eyes on the laptev as a warm surge of southerly winds batters this region for around 2 days, just how far that ice edge will head northwards, I think we could see some movement here as the ice is now looking more diffused here that is for certain. 

In general the weather pattern is looking cool and stormy towards Beaufort and warm and sunny towards the Russian side of the basin, SSTS will soon go up in the ESS and we saw just how slow refreeze was last Autumn, how slow is it going to be this year!? Could be a struggle unless we get a strong PV forming over the pole.

[Don]

On 05/08/2019 at 21:19, feb1991blizzard said:

Corker - Looking good for winter, we are on target to go lower with sea ice extent than 2012, look what happened that winter.

 

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Northerlies won't be up to much this coming winter if this is the case?  Will have to hope for a beast from the east perhaps!  I personally do not want to see record low levels of sea ice, although it's pretty inevitable now and no getting away from it!

Edited August 8, 2019 by Don

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Northerlies won't be up to much this coming winter if this is the case?  Will have to hope for a beast from the east perhaps!

Unless the temperature gradient causes potent waves, fronts and polar lows to develop and give very marginal but very heavy snowfalls.

 

8 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

I think a minimum of under 4 million is very likely just looking at the weather forecast and the state of the ice. 

All eyes on the laptev as a warm surge of southerly winds batters this region for around 2 days, just how far that ice edge will head northwards, I think we could see some movement here as the ice is now looking more diffused here that is for certain. 

In general the weather pattern is looking cool and stormy towards Beaufort and warm and sunny towards the Russian side of the basin, SSTS will soon go up in the ESS and we saw just how slow refreeze was last Autumn, how slow is it going to be this year!? Could be a struggle unless we get a strong PV forming over the pole.

Looks like it won't quite beat the 2012 melt season but will be the second, according to that tweet that Knocker has posted.

[Derecho]

On 06/08/2019 at 15:32, Devonian said:

Is there is such a correlation? Why wasn't the winter after the previous record low extent, 2007, cold? Or why wasn't it a warm winter here after the relatively high sea ice minimum of 2009?

The answer is because reducing Arctic sea ice means (if any conclusion can be drawn at all) more odd, generally warmer, weather not just that a record low extent means the following winter will be cold here.

Reduced sea ice results in much higher temperatures at high northern latitudes. The reduced temperature gradient from mid to high latitudes results in a weaker jet, favouring more meriodional jet stream patterns.

Doesn't guarantee cold for the UK however, just means that patterns can get stuck and be tougher to budge.

[knocker]

11 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Reduced sea ice results in much higher temperatures at high northern latitudes. The reduced temperature gradient from mid to high latitudes results in a weaker jet, favouring more meriodional jet stream patterns.

Doesn't guarantee cold for the UK however, just means that patterns can get stuck and be tougher to budge.

That is not quite so clear cut given the recent paper I've posted in new research

Increased shear in the North Atlantic upper-level jet stream over the past four decades

Quote

Abstract

Earth’s equator-to-pole temperature gradient drives westerly mid-latitude jet streams through thermal wind balance1. In the upper atmosphere, anthropogenic climate change is strengthening this meridional temperature gradient by cooling the polar lower stratosphere2,3 and warming the tropical upper troposphere4,5,6, acting to strengthen the upper-level jet stream7. In contrast, in the lower atmosphere, Arctic amplification of global warming is weakening the meridional temperature gradient8,9,10, acting to weaken the upper-level jet stream. Therefore, trends in the speed of the upper-level jet stream11,12,13 represent a closely balanced tug-of-war between two competing effects at different altitudes14. It is possible to isolate one of the competing effects by analysing the vertical shear—the change in wind speed with height—instead of the wind speed, but this approach has not previously been taken. Here we show that, although the zonal wind speed in the North Atlantic polar jet stream at 250 hectopascals has not changed since the start of the observational satellite era in 1979, the vertical shear has increased by 15 per cent (with a range of 11–17 per cent) according to three different reanalysis datasets15,16,17. We further show that this trend is attributable to the thermal wind response to the enhanced upper-level meridional temperature gradient. Our results indicate that climate change may be having a larger impact on the North Atlantic jet stream than previously thought. The increased vertical shear is consistent with the intensification of shear-driven clear-air turbulence expected from climate change18,19,20, which will affect aviation in the busy transatlantic flight corridor by creating a more turbulent flying environment for aircraft. We conclude that the effects of climate change and variability on the upper-level jet stream are being partly obscured by the traditional focus on wind speed rather than wind shear.

 

Edited August 9, 2019 by knocker

[Geordiesnow]

17 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Reduced sea ice results in much higher temperatures at high northern latitudes. The reduced temperature gradient from mid to high latitudes results in a weaker jet, favouring more meriodional jet stream patterns.

Doesn't guarantee cold for the UK however, just means that patterns can get stuck and be tougher to budge.

So how do you explain the many cold winters of the past with much more extensive sea ice and a stronger PV? 

Imo, if you lose the sea ice, eventually you will lose the cold air and snowfall will become rarer and rarer. Autumn months at higher latitudes will almost be an extended summer as the PV struggles to form over the pole due to no sea ice, frequent high pressure ridges and warm Arctic  ocean SSTS.

[Don]

2 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

So how do you explain the many cold winters of the past with much more extensive sea ice and a stronger PV? 

Imo, if you lose the sea ice, eventually you will lose the cold air and snowfall will become rarer and rarer. Autumn months at higher latitudes will almost be an extended summer as the PV struggles to form over the pole due to no sea ice, frequent high pressure ridges and warm Arctic  ocean SSTS.

That's my thinking too.  The cold air source will diminish more and more and as a result it will become fairly common for Britain to experience temperatures in the low twenties during winter like February this year?  Oh the joys of Global Warming, NOT! 

Edited August 9, 2019 by Don

[Gray-Wolf]

The mixing of the top layers of the Arctic Ocean (that open waters allow) bring up warmer ,saltier waters whilst mixing out the 'fresher ,colder' waters

rinse and repeat!

I'm already concerned at what this summer will mean for our Autumn/early winter

If Greenland again ends up the 'cold pole' then will we not again suffer WAA rather than polar plunges?

[fujita5]

Continental Europe will still develop its own cold pool during winter, it's just the depth of the cold that may be lacking - so if we are to see a more meridional climate then undercutting scenarios would be our favoured route to snow.

I have a question for the more knowledgeable - with more energy in the atmosphere as a whole and less of a baroclinic zone across the north Atlantic, would we see storms developing in different ways?

What I mean is; currently we see jet streaks leaving the eastern seaboard in response to the stark difference between polar air over Canada and the northeastern US - if this was less of a common event, would we see more storms developing in response to the temperature difference between mainland Europe and the increasingly warm atlantic air?

 

[Derecho]

8 hours ago, knocker said:

That is not quite so clear cut given the recent paper I've posted in new research

Increased shear in the North Atlantic upper-level jet stream over the past four decades

 

Yup there are conflicting factors at play here, the melting of Arctic Sea Ice was a potential contributing factor towards the cold blocked winters of 2009/2010 and 2012/2013 (and plenty of literature pointed towards this at the time) for example but other factors can come into play. A meridional jet as mentioned is no guarantee of cold in this part of the world. A blocked arctic is not much use if the UK still finds itself under a mild southerly or SW wind which as we know is possible in this part of the world.

2 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

So how do you explain the many cold winters of the past with much more extensive sea ice and a stronger PV? 

Imo, if you lose the sea ice, eventually you will lose the cold air and snowfall will become rarer and rarer. Autumn months at higher latitudes will almost be an extended summer as the PV struggles to form over the pole due to no sea ice, frequent high pressure ridges and warm Arctic  ocean SSTS.

The other thing that I've noticed in recent decades is the decline in Scandi highs during winter. The BFTE and February 2012 being exceptions...

You can still get an intense PV to our NW and cold winters here, if the Scandi high can hold the Atlantic influence back.

If we see a weaker North Atlantic jet as a consequence of melting arctic sea ice, I would expect our cold spells to be driven by large Greenland highs rather then Scandi highs. It's complicated however as both you and Knocker say. It was just a statement about the direct impact of arctic sea ice melting on synoptic variations in isolation. There are other pieces of the jigsaw.

[Gray-Wolf]

This is not supposed to be able to happen?

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=afg&product=PNS&issuedby=afg

Public Information Statement...CORRECTED

National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 800 PM AKDT Sat Aug 10 2019

 

...Lightning Detected within 300 Miles of North Pole Today...

A number of lightning strikes were recorded between 4pm and 6pm today within 300 miles of the North Pole. The lightning strikes occurred near 85 degrees north, 120 degrees east, which is about 700 miles north of the Lena River Delta of Siberia. This lightning was detected by the GLD lightning detection network which is used by the National Weather Service. This is one of the furthest north lightning strikes in Alaska Forecaster memory.

[SMU]

I cant remember where the thread is but the same trend & change occured over barrow in Alaska over a decade or so - 

So as the ice retreats North across the years so the point where thunderstorms develop also transition Northwards-

What we are seeing now is just further evidence of how the changing arctic now looks in Summer...

 

[Geordiesnow]

I also wonder if reports of lightning will increase in the Arctic during the Autumn months as the ocean tries to release its heat and cold air tries to form which would result in convective showers, lots of heat up there this year for that to happen especially at lower latitudes of the Arctic circle. 

Back to the ice itself, well its a race with 2012, near certain we will finish at least 2nd lowest with under 4 million and probably well under that if truth to be told and unlike in 2012, this year won't have recently melted ice at lower latitudes like 2012 did which helped with the rapid refreeze that year. Autumn could well be eye catching in the extent rates, especially iif we get an October like 2016 and 2018 where the PV just could not form because of frequent ridges into the basin.

And to keep the bad news going for the ice, guess what's coming, a lovely huge ridge from the Pacific side of the basin which will keep the Russian side of the basin well above average along with the pole so in other words, no sugnificant early cold pooling as of yet. Must admit though, I am so looking forward to Autumn and just see what will unfold because the rate of melt this year could well lead to unprecedented times ahead. 

[Derecho]

On 12/08/2019 at 11:08, Gray-Wolf said:

This is not supposed to be able to happen?

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=afg&product=PNS&issuedby=afg

Public Information Statement...CORRECTED

National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 800 PM AKDT Sat Aug 10 2019

 

...Lightning Detected within 300 Miles of North Pole Today...

A number of lightning strikes were recorded between 4pm and 6pm today within 300 miles of the North Pole. The lightning strikes occurred near 85 degrees north, 120 degrees east, which is about 700 miles north of the Lena River Delta of Siberia. This lightning was detected by the GLD lightning detection network which is used by the National Weather Service. This is one of the furthest north lightning strikes in Alaska Forecaster memory.

Lightning strikes 300 miles away from the North Pole.... just wow.

 

And what Steve says below makes a lot of sense, more intense plumes will be able to carry more heat further North into the arctic circle so I can see reports like this becoming more frequent in the future.

[Geordiesnow]

That huge ridge of high pressure is sticking around for a good while so we could well see some ice melt momentum happening in the Laptev ice edge, how far north will the open water travel too in the coming 5 days? As far North as it did in 2014? 

Models are hinting at a cold low trying to form and to take over the weather pattern eventually but my experience of watching this trying to happen is the models want to erode the high too quickly and I would not be surprised if this would be the case again. Also the air under the low is never as cold as the models make out so I be surprised if such a low did form, it would save the Arctic from being worse than what it is. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Here we are again

It's like 08'/09' with the 'collapse and spread' hiding the losses ongoing?

Look at 'Area' compared to 'extent' these past few days esp. in the C.A.B.

The breakup of the floes is allowing ice to spread into open water keeping the '15% or more' measure triggered........

"When the ice goes it will go pretty fast......."

Seeing the amount of energy sucked into the Arctic Ocean over June/July I have to wonder how bottom melt (or should we now talk of 'side melt' these days???) will pan out this year?

[Geordiesnow]

On 19/08/2019 at 21:33, Gray-Wolf said:

Here we are again

It's like 08'/09' with the 'collapse and spread' hiding the losses ongoing?

Look at 'Area' compared to 'extent' these past few days esp. in the C.A.B.

The breakup of the floes is allowing ice to spread into open water keeping the '15% or more' measure triggered........

"When the ice goes it will go pretty fast......."

Seeing the amount of energy sucked into the Arctic Ocean over June/July I have to wonder how bottom melt (or should we now talk of 'side melt' these days???) will pan out this year?

I get your point but I don't think this year's pack is as spread out as say it was in 2016 and 2017 for example, it looks smaller and more compact although in recent days and weeks, the CAB has looked a bit more diffused especially towards the Laptev. What is interesting about this year is the affects that the June heatwave in the ESS had on the ice in general and how the ESS 'arm' is non existant this year and how far the ice pack has retreated north on the Russian side in general. 

I mentioned in my last post about a pattern change to stormier conditions and this is going to be the case now with a fairly deep low coming in from the Canadian Archipelago, this will send cold air through the pole and towards the pacific side of the basin and in theory should be favourable for sea ice and hopefully starts to refreeze any small areas of open water in the CAB. One interesting aspects of the winds is too see how the ice attached to the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland will react to it but this is a much better pattern for the Ice than that really strong dipole we saw at the back end of August in 2016. I just hope the cold PV can maintain itself over the basin and not get get punctured by a ridge of high pressure! 

Nevertheless the trend is still clear and even though we probably won't get a record low, the trend line has been low all summer and I still think an extent of just under 4 million is quite likely which is newsworthy enough. 

And again it begs the question, just what on earth the ice would look like if we did get a 2007 style summer. This summer has been more high pressure dominated but imo, it was only really the ESS that got hammered with such a pattern, conditions over the CAB and Beaufort has been calmer and not particularly stormy either(Don't recall any major deep low pressure systems). July was more cooler at times before the first part of August was dominated by more high pressure over the ESS and Laptev so really it was a mixed bag and we are quite a bit below 2007 with very warm SSTS too boot, not good signs sadly. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Are the Siberian fires going to put significant additional pressure on the ice when the soot begins to settle? I’ve been reading about this extensively today and it sounds like it’s the last thing we need right now, but it’s happening.

Argument is that it will darken the ice and make it more susceptible to melting, supposedly.

We clearly don’t understand the balances that keep our atmosphere in check. This all seems far too ‘unprecidented’ for my liking