Arctic Sea Ice - The Melting Season 2019

[feb1991blizzard]

The problem is that we could be somewhat restricted in what synoptics deliver properly now, we need a really big build up of frigid air on the continent (unlikley in Dec based on recent events) then an undercut, Northerlies need to be 18th Dec 2010 style to really deliver now, so really an undercut has to be exactly at the right time to deliver an E'ly, SSW desperately needed these days and they don't always deliver unless they are a split type right in the heart of winter, so in other words the blocking over the pole might look good but if it lessens the cold available to tap into its a double edged sword.

Edited July 12, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Gray-Wolf]

Though I'm constantly reassured by those who know better I worry about conditions that allow our plentiful funnel clouds to develop into their bigger brothers?

The recent tornado in N Italy ( and possible one in N Greece 2 days ago) give me the chills!

If Polar plunges can meet Tropical Plumes (due to a lack of atmospheric restrictions?) then we will have issues in some large population centre or other not designed for such and peopled by folk unaware of what to do in such an event.....even if they did get a warning....which they wouldn't....

[Geordiesnow]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

BOE would surely equate to more Late Autumn & Early Winter blocking with significant PV displacement ...

Less thermal gradient slowing the westerlies for all mid lattitudes. Across the globe that would make some areas a lot warmer in Autumn but also some pockets of anomalous cold...

If we get a BOE then snowy winters in the UK I feel could become a thing of the past as the Arctic will be much warmer and the PV will struggle to develop during Autumn and to a lesser extent winter and therefore head to our shores. Forget about blocking because there will be much less cold air to tap into so it will be all irrelevant. 

I find it unbelievable that some posts have the hints of let's hope the ice melts because it may increase our chances of seeing high latitude blocking, a rather selfish attitude to have if that is the case. 

Let's not forget when the Arctic was full of ice, cold winters still happened and were more frequent, most likely because the PV was much stronger so when it did split back then(which it did despite climate change believers seem to think its a new phonomen) there was brutel lobes of cold air heading in different parts of the hemisphere and because cold air is dense, it stuck around for much longer. 

[feb1991blizzard]

What would be the effect on global temperatures if it was permanently cloudy over most of the Arctic region - say from 70N?  There is a very relevant reason for this question, i will elaborate later.

[cheeky_monkey]

9 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

If we get a BOE then snowy winters in the UK I feel could become a thing of the past as the Arctic will be much warmer and the PV will struggle to develop during Autumn and to a lesser extent winter and therefore head to our shores. Forget about blocking because there will be much less cold air to tap into so it will be all irrelevant. 

If there is less cold air in the arctic how did parts of the mid west record their coldest temperatures on record in January of this year..and here in Alberta we endured the third coldest Feb on record and the coldest since 1939

[CharmlessMan]

You might want to read this for a possible explanation Cheeky.  It's connected with a weaker vortex in the north pole causing a displacement of the colder air and a wavier jet stream.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2019/01/30/this-is-why-global-warming-is-responsible-for-freezing-temperatures-across-the-usa/#f72a23ed8cf8

 

[SMU]

47 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

 

10 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

If we get a BOE then snowy winters in the UK I feel could become a thing of the past as the Arctic will be much warmer and the PV will struggle to develop during Autumn and to a lesser extent winter and therefore head to our shores. Forget about blocking because there will be much less cold air to tap into so it will be all irrelevant. 

I find it unbelievable that some posts have the hints of let's hope the ice melts because it may increase our chances of seeing high latitude blocking, a rather selfish attitude to have if that is the case. 

Let's not forget when the Arctic was full of ice, cold winters still happened and were more frequent, most likely because the PV was much stronger so when it did split back then(which it did despite climate change believers seem to think its a new phonomen) there was brutel lobes of cold air heading in different parts of the hemisphere and because cold air is dense, it stuck around for much longer. 

 I think you make to many assumptions ( especially about peoples hopes & expectations on here )

In terms of there being no cold air then thats not going to happen due to how the earth tilts & the seasons arriving-  the poles will reach a point where the current rate of warming slows down- its at that point when the damage is done we will see the effects over the globe - 

In terms of available cold - what will essentially happen will be the winter seasons getting squeezed so Autumn runs on Longer so generally across the piste that would equate for a net increase in temperatures - the biggest losers of early winter would be regions across 60-70N where the expanding polar cell that normally impacts these areas in Late October > early November would see less availability of early season cold & net warmth - the effects as you head south will be less impactful but still a probable increase in temps just a weaker signature.

Svalbard is a good example of that look at Nov 18 Ave V Norm 6.5c Warmer than ave then Dec 7.6c warmer in dec...

This synopsis though is going to distorted by increased frequencies of Autumn blocking over the pole due to the lower thermal gradient which are significantly stronger than the past- this will serve to eject the early season PV out of the pole creating pockets of significant cold V the norm in areas of continental interiors - but against the cold there will also be significant warmth drawn up from the south covering a larger area than the cold - The midwest last year was the region that copped all the cold !

December AO values you would expect to drop V historic years especially in low solar input years - *NB* the 2 lowest AO months for December are 2009 & 2010... - expected to be challenged 2019/2020

The Uk is a difficult one to project, you would expect that we get warmer in November but also the risk of Cold grows in relation to the fact we can draw the cold from the E/NE in polar blocking scenarios...

Also the unknown is how Winter patterns could change once we get to BOE years then the bounce back period in Nov /Dec there could be a whole new global circulation pattern that develops where the jet moves to the West of Greenland...

 

s

Edited July 12, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Derecho]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

If there is less cold air in the arctic how did parts of the mid west record their coldest temperatures on record in January of this year..and here in Alberta we endured the third coldest Feb on record and the coldest since 1939

February 2019 was indeed remarkably cold across NW Canada as the below anomalies from the 1981-2010 average shows... however synoptically it was extreme with pressure over the North Pacific a whopping 22mb above normal for the month.

  

Even though the arctic is warmer now then in past decades the air is still cold and once this spills into Northern Canada it quickly turns colder and colder. A cold surface high with no flow moderating it from the ocean will still turn colder and colder.

If I recall wasn't February 2019 notable for the persistence of very cold weather rather then the intensity? Thus explaining why Alaska conversely was mild to an even more extreme extent. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January–February_2019_North_American_cold_wave

To explain further... overall the intensity of the cold air in the arctic isn't as great compared to past decades . The infamously cold month of January 1950 in the same region saw similar synoptics but the arctic was much colder back then. As a result similar synoptics produced temperatures upto 17C below the 1981-2010 average for that month... and much below average temperatures occurred over a much wider area (more intense cold shots dragged down monthly mean temperatures further).

 

I like to summarise regional climate change as like loading a dice. Imagine cold to warm events are the equivalent of throwing 1-6. In a warmer climate, 6s that were once rare become more common but its still not impossible to get a 1. Notably cold months in the past could be more easily achieved due to the greater intensity of cold waves whilst now we rely more heavily on persistently cold weather patterns to deliver the goods. 

Additionally, Its easier for North America to see intense cold the moment arctic air is allowed to flood south because the land quickly chills it further as long as the ocean influence is cut off. The UK meanwhile will always see northerlies modified by ocean temperatures which really don't help offset the warming arctic like what we would see in N. America when it lounges around for a few days.

Due to the warmer arctic our best bet at beating records is importing cold air that has built up over a decent period of time over Scandi or the East, like what we saw in Feb 2018. We can still get notable cold in the UK but the margins are finer and more ingredients need to come together. Hence the concept of a loaded dice. Northerlies are much slower at bringing in really cold uppers and we have to rely on a much stronger Greenland high. December 1981 is a good example of how in previous decades we didn't rely on special synoptics to deliver real cold, it was far easier as a comparison with a December 2010 northerly shows.

  Dec 1981

  Dec 2010

 

Edited July 12, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[Geordiesnow]

3 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

If there is less cold air in the arctic how did parts of the mid west record their coldest temperatures on record in January of this year..and here in Alberta we endured the third coldest Feb on record and the coldest since 1939

Isolated region in what was globally a very warm month and let's not forget, I am talking about a BOE here not the present. 

I think we are already seeing the affects of a warmer arctic, refreeze is slower because of high SSTS, upper air temps over the Arctic basin(the PV) are much higher during September and in some cases October even(especially so in 2016 and I think 2018) perhaps because ocean temperatures are so high so yep, I expect a weaker PV to form during the Autumn months with ice struggling to form and thicken as a result and for cold air at lower latitudes such as the UK to become much less frequent. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Some great analysis from Steve and Quicksilver1989. 

In a simple nutshell, we are less likely to benefit from a northerly blast. But anything from the east, still has a relatively similar chance as it always has done, due to less ocean temperature modification mixing out cold uppers. 

Febraury 2018 has proven this. If we can see a displaced cold shot into the right areas, I.e Scandinavia or Central Europe, we will be in for a decent chance still. 

It would be interesting to see if there has been meltouts and recoveries over the last 10 centuries or so. Then we could at least get some kind of rough measure if we would likely see a big recovery of the ice. 

[Singularity]

Great discussion here

As autumn and early winter Arctic sea ice coverage reduces, potential snowfall increases for the high latitude of the continents... but how much of that is realised depends on the regional weather patterns.

As does building deep cold pools atop lying snow. This increasingly being the only source of large areas of such cold air.

So it seems fair to summarise that the dependency of strong UK cold spells on particulars of weather patterns is extended beyond the UK, right across the continents.

Not only that, but the deterioration of stratospheric structure adds more regional variability there too.

Being on the eastern flanks of a large body of water that stays ‘mild’ all winter really doesn’t help us... but if, as Greenland increasingly becomes the last stronghold of persistent deep cold bordering the N Atlantic, the jet stream tends to wrap around it more tightly as part of a smaller circulation... then who knows, maritime flows might become far less dominant here!

Just speculation, but heavily based on scientific study

Edited July 14, 2019 by Singularity

[Gray-Wolf]

The loess deposits in the UK hint at a more 'easterly dominated' regime in the last ice age bringing warm/Hot summers and cold ,blocked winters. If that configuration is out there then maybe part of our transition to a more equable hemisphere involves a period under such circulation patterns?

We all must get used to the increased moisture held in the atmosphere and ,as such, expect big snows when conditions are ripe ( BFTE/polar plunge?)

Back to the ice!

There is a continued 'darkening' of most of the remaining ice with albedo now at record lows across the pack ( open water plus this melt darkening/algal growth below floes).

Though the numbers are not what we were seeing last week melt continues so floes are losing mass day on day.

As I keep saying with so much of the ice at max being of a similar age/thickness there must be a point when large amounts of ice cover all blink out at once as the final few cm's of ice melt out?

Then there's what any agitation of the open waters will mean for the ice with constant turning over of warm waters bathing the ice?

[Singularity]

With the weather patterns looking a lot less melt-forcing except possibly for a vigorous low on the Pacific side in about a week's time, we look to have a strong test of 'melting momentum' on our hands for the coming week or so.

This is precisely what happened in 2012; the pattern turned markedly cooler and stormier. That year, the melt continued apace regardless due to how much the ice had been weakened by melt ponds, seepage of water through ice cracks and some ocean-driven melt during the preceding couple of months.

So 2019 could well continue to chase 2012 during this time.

If a strong storm comes about on the Pacific side within the next fortnight, that may well give 2019 the means to put a bit of distance between itself and 2012 (on the lower side, sadly!) prior to when that year had its GAC.

On the ASI forum, I've seen a perplexing amount of analysis that seems to presume nothing comparable to the 2012 GAC happening this year. While I understand that it was a truly exceptional event, this year has the most conducive setup since then in terms of anomalously warm open water to facilitate such a thing. 2016 was similar, just a bit less extreme, and that also managed some strong storms of note (in fact rivalling the GAC for intensity; it was duration that they fell short on).

I'd actually be surprised not to see something at least on a par with the strongest storm of 2016 sometime in the next 6 weeks. Should one materialise, then how much impact it has on the sea ice will depend on where it locates relative to the main bodies of dispersed and relatively compact ice, along with the topobathy of the Arctic Ocean (affecting how much warmer, saltier water it can churn up from depth. The 2012 GAC hit hard with that).

[Geordiesnow]

How long will that diffused looking ice in the ESS last for? I doubt much of it will survive by September especially as most of it is first year ice in anycase. 

Hints growing in the medium term that high pressure may return across the basin, one to watch for sure as one could argue that a mixture of warm highs and low pressure systems will lead to a fast melt? 

[Singularity]

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/cams-monitors-unprecedented-wildfires-arctic

Also, record-breaking wildfire coverage and emissions to factor in.

Not liking the hints of a new round of ridging into the Arctic, possibly in a dipole configuration, starting about a week from now. Although the sun's lower in the sky than it was during the past bout, the ice will in general have even lower albedo, especially where low pressure systems have drawn in and deposited soot from those fires.

True what you say about a mix of highs and lows @Geordiesnow. I've seen such interchanging patterns put forward as the most efficient way to melt the ice mid-July to mid-Aug, as the highs tend to bring bring sunny spells of weather to heat the open waters and then the lows stir that warmed water into the sea ice zones.

[kold weather]

Both the 12z ECM and the 18z GFS are brutal. The models had been getting more bening for the back part of July but models today have moved back to a dipole and a much warmer looking Arctic setup.

If these came close then the record will again be at risk after briefly looking like it maybe safe.

[Geordiesnow]

Time will tell KW in regards a new record, I still have my doubts because the CAB ice is more concentrated than it was in 2012 but the outer edges atm do look more diffused just like 2012. I do think 2nd lowest is a strong possibility especially as the ice shape look similar to 2011 and that went quite low in the end. 

If the dipole comes off then the main damage will be by the winds, do think a dipole of some sorts will happen but just how strong will it be is yet to be decided. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Well JAXA went lowest on the record yesterday with another century break.

I am concerned about 'export' and the changes to the ice we have all witnessed these past 6 winters that will make it easier , given the right forcings, to see large areas of 'good' ice cast out into the N Atlantic?

It is lined up there like ducks in a duck shoot just waiting for the shove to oblivion.....

2012 had its 'Great Arctic Cyclone' (GAC) will we have our 'Big Atlantic Push' this year?

[Geordiesnow]

I know my Arctic predictions are usually poor but I really thought the low pressure spell would bring somewhat a slow down, not the case whatsoever and I believe a minimum of under 4 million is getting very likely now just by looking at current extent and the state of the pack. 

Volume is also record low so all signs are this year will be in the top 2, can it break 2012s record? At least in 2012 ice melted late at lower latitudes so it allowed for a Sharp refreeze, I'm not sure that will be the case this year. 

[Gray-Wolf]

There are those who would say we're always 'predicting' record lows to which I would counter 'we are always mindful of the potential for record lows' and this is where we still are with regards this years melt season?

It's not the 'perfect' version of a perfect melt storm but it has , and continues, to do great damage to the ice left in the water? The ESS looks awful and , to me, only the ice in danger of being exported looks 'good'???

P.S. I am now a married man and , so far so good!!!!

[feb1991blizzard]

2 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

 

P.S. I am now a married man and , so far so good!!!!

Your missus must have had a blinding honeymoon and constantly be excited !!!

EDIT : Hope you bought her a nice paper on climate research for her present.

Edited July 22, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Geordiesnow]

Might not be many posts in here but wow the Arctic ice is really looking so bad, so much so that I think we could at least bee 2nd lowest quite comfortably andd have extent dropping as low as 3.50 million and I would not rule out breaking the record either despite weather conditions in the 2nd half of the melt season so far has been largely favourable for the ice. The uni breman charts are looking quite colourful now and extent is dropping like a stone. 

Weather conditions are forecast to ggo quite slack but with such high SSTS, I think its prrobably too little to late for the ice. 

[Gray-Wolf]

I do feel that we sailed very close to 2nd place on a number of years but the measures did not capture it? I also think the predominance in similar thickness/properties of FY ice meant that we were only ever a few weeks of such before re-freeze took over?

This year we have had that 'extra 2 weeks' so we will find out what happens when a whole of the FY ice blinks out.

It will then be the positioning of the remaining floes that matter as to whether they trip the 15% cover or more threshold?

The more open water the more the opposite is likely with 14% cover counting as zero cover?

[Geordiesnow]

1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I do feel that we sailed very close to 2nd place on a number of years but the measures did not capture it? I also think the predominance in similar thickness/properties of FY ice meant that we were only ever a few weeks of such before re-freeze took over?

This year we have had that 'extra 2 weeks' so we will find out what happens when a whole of the FY ice blinks out.

It will then be the positioning of the remaining floes that matter as to whether they trip the 15% cover or more threshold?

The more open water the more the opposite is likely with 14% cover counting as zero cover?

I think 2017 was definately a year that would of came close to 2nd place under slightly different circumstances as there was alot of diffused ice left by the end of that melt season. Last year never came close to it and its perhaps indicative how thin the ice is that despite largely favourable weather conditions, it ended marginally below 2017 albeit thanks to extreme atlanticfication and large warm high during September. 

One area of concern is the ice from laptev up towards the pole, this ice has started to become quite diffused in nature and the ice on the satalite images really does look thin indeed. This year was always going to challenge thanks to the very warm spring and June and it does look like this combination is going to really do some damage to the ice between now and September regardless what the weather above will do. 

[Singularity]

The ice has been left as vulnerable as ever, so now we’re sort of milling around waiting to see if the weather will pull it’s punches or unleash a haymaker.

Strong cyclones come and go in the modelling. The ingredients are there for something of GAC intensity but perhaps not scale; the one thing missing is a broad trough formation. At the moment it comes down to whether a surface disturbance aligns with a trough while well-positioned relative to ocean/ice thermal gradient zones for strong baroclinic development.

Alternatively, some degree of warm-core storm formation might be possible if upper temps lower enough to produce a sufficient vertical thermal gradient over anomalously warm waters. Like a polar low on steroids but (mostly...) minus the cold and snow.