Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Arctic Sea Ice - The Melting Season 2019


Singularity

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
1 hour ago, Geordiesnow said:

I got to admit GW, with respect I find your post as quite bizzare here. Just to let you know, I'm posting under the username of Paul on the ASIF and I replied about the slator model and how for intents and purposes the model is near useless to use as a guide to the melt season as with the owner passed away, it's not being used for what it intended for. The 'pole hole' is just the slator model picking up an area of slightly lower concentration on the NSIDC maps for today's date and because of that, the slator model will naturally predict that the probability of that ice being there will be lower. I can confidently predict there will be no hole near the pole by July 24th never mind June 24th!

What is more  concerning perhaps is the weather situation and how the models have been predicting a strong dipole and lots of heat potentially entering the ESS and Laptev regions, one to watch for sure. Todays runs has marginally toned it down somewhat with the shallow trough around Wrangel Island causing the models some headaches on what role it will play so interesting times for sure. 

 

I respect your opinion and I'm glad to know who Paul is over there but we both seem to be agreeing that the ice across the central pole is poor right now?

With both BFTV and yourself seeing the warmth about to hit parts of the basin I cannot rule out open water ast 90N by june 24th?

The rotation of the Beaufort Gyre is not basin wide so there will be 'shear' pressures where that rotation ends and interacts with the ice beyond its influence tearing up 'low concentration ice' into ever larger holes esp. if a strong dipole insists on seeing framward transport of the ice not captured in the gyre?

We will see what we will see!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
10 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I respect your opinion and I'm glad to know who Paul is over there but we both seem to be agreeing that the ice across the central pole is poor right now?

With both BFTV and yourself seeing the warmth about to hit parts of the basin I cannot rule out open water ast 90N by june 24th?

The rotation of the Beaufort Gyre is not basin wide so there will be 'shear' pressures where that rotation ends and interacts with the ice beyond its influence tearing up 'low concentration ice' into ever larger holes esp. if a strong dipole insists on seeing framward transport of the ice not captured in the gyre?

We will see what we will see!

The ice across the pole does not look anything out of the ordinary too me going from worldview and in fact PIOMAS model may suggest it's slightly thicker than some years but it might mean nothing seeing as the Arctic ice seems to be in no mood to hang around this year. 

Almost speechless looking at the Beaufort sea, barely any ice left there, god knows what impacts that will have for the rest of the basin and this melting season. 

Also the heat is going to be on for Greenland soon, some of the thicknesses that is forecast are just extraordinary, basically terrible for the Greenland ice cap and bad for us if warmth and sunshine is what you want during our summer. 

Also let's see how much the Laptev hole expands when the heat and very strong winds arrives. So much going on. 

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Well today marks the day officially you can sail from the Bering Stright towards the Canadian Arpichello and not encounter any meaningful ice and its the 8th June.. Just extraordinary and even more extraordinary is this time last month and indeed last year, the Beaufort sea was full of ice, what a transformation. Just check the worldview maps for yourselves and see just what happened. Rapid melt/ compaction for sure. 

Now all eyes on the East Siberian sea as the first major heat blast sets in here in about 48 hours time, not alot of melt ponds here in comparison to 2012 and 2016 but that is set to change I'm sure. Also watch for the cracks to get bigger between the fast ice and normal ice given the wind direction. 

And the forecast for Greenland ice is really bad, lots of heat heading here and the ridge is that strong on some runs, we might see southerlies developing on the northern shore of Greenland so will we see open water again appearing in that area? 

Such an exciting melting season and it's only June yet its also quite alarming too. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

ecmwf_z500aNorm_nhem_4.png ecmwf_T850a_nhem_4.png

So, the 'major heat blast' for the ESS continues to intensify for a few more days yet, and unsurprisingly, the ice is really getting hammered based on visual obs. 

This is already a dire turn of events, and enough to push the total Arctic sea ice extent to a record low based on NSIDC data, with JAXA data showing 2nd place, while both data sources have the Central Arctic basin at record lows.

Yet recent model trends suggest it could actually step up another gear, with the flow from East Asia not only persisting, but extending so that it reaches right across the Pacific side of the Arctic basin. Below I show the D9 ECM chart as it's the most extreme, but the key developments begin a few days before that, within a range that has some credibility. There's also plenty of support from its ensembles and other models. So, while the setup might not become quite as extraordinary as depicted, it's existence to some extent or other seems concerningly plausible.

ecmwf_z500aMean_nhem_5.pngecmwf_T850a_nhem_10.png

This could send the Arctic sea ice pattern toward a bizarre one of the usual Canadian-side sea ice joined to anomalous Atlantic-side ice (where sea ice motion keeps piling it up, and air temps vary around the long-term average, albeit with some large warm spikes).

 

On top of all this, the dominant basin for tropical forcing looks likely to switch from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean by the start of July. This corresponds to ridges developing across western Europe and Scandinavia, meaning an increased risk that the Atlantic side is subjected to a lengthy run of anomalous warmth. The Pacific side could turn cooler and cloudier, though, so it will be important how much ice survives the damaging pattern of the next week or so.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Good read there but i am a little confused by your post in respect the central arctic basin at record lows? Im assuming you mean actual ice in the basin numbers so not covering areas on the outer basin? If so, no surprises there given the low extent and the particularly low extent in the Beaufort we have.

Indeed the melt ponds are getting very extensive across the ESS, not totally unusual for this time of year but not a good sign either, it does feel the spatial pattern for sea ice is one that could look similar to 2012 and 2016 in respect quick melt out in the beaufort and ESS and slower melt out perhaps in the Chuckchi as the ice gets compacted there but perhaps too early to say? 

As for the weather, aa you say there is a small trend high pressure could come into play across the Pacific side of the basin but the signal has been quite mixed imo so not a definate conclusion but the models do agree the heat across then ESS could set to continue albeit with lighter and variable winds. What the models eventually do with that Beaufort low will be interesting also and could make a difference what weather the Arctic may see in the next week or so.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

You’re right about what I mean by central Arctic .

There does look to be one potential positive until further notice; accompanying the warm Pacific side pattern is long-lasting cold across the western Canadian Arctic. This preserves some of the most important ice with respect to the sea ice minimum, as it’ll be difficult for sufficiently open water to occur all around it (that would be truly horrifying!).

There is the matter of sea ice drift to consider though. We need to see a sustained decline or halt to the transport over to Fram and the Atlantic margins. 

Ironically, upon such a thing occurring, extent would probably cascade for a time as the Atlantic side suffered for a lack of sustenance to combat the typical seasonal melt. 

Such short term one way, long term the other relationships are part of what keep the Arctic so difficult to anticipate the exact behaviour of each individual season.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
22 hours ago, Singularity said:

You’re right about what I mean by central Arctic .

There does look to be one potential positive until further notice; accompanying the warm Pacific side pattern is long-lasting cold across the western Canadian Arctic. This preserves some of the most important ice with respect to the sea ice minimum, as it’ll be difficult for sufficiently open water to occur all around it (that would be truly horrifying!).

There is the matter of sea ice drift to consider though. We need to see a sustained decline or halt to the transport over to Fram and the Atlantic margins. 

Ironically, upon such a thing occurring, extent would probably cascade for a time as the Atlantic side suffered for a lack of sustenance to combat the typical seasonal melt. 

Such short term one way, long term the other relationships are part of what keep the Arctic so difficult to anticipate the exact behaviour of each individual season.

I think that is the only saving looking at the upcoming weather patterns although the Beaufort low is forecast now to fade away, there is not the true dipole which is what 2007 had however the trend for increased high pressure across the whole of the Pacific side of the basin has to be a concern, the ESS area and the area to the east of Wrangel Island is definitely one to keep an eye on. 

There is the potential for a fairly deep low to cross from the Laptev towards the Beaufort in around 4 days time, its not forecast to linger but it be interesting how the ice will react to it as lows causes the ice to diverse and potentially causes more holes within the ice pack and of course the winds for a time will again favours making the Laptev bite even bigger.

On a better note, at least Greenland could at last be cooling down and who knows down the line, we may even get some more normal summer type weather in the UK! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Watching the positive NAO trend fade away, and signs of more large ridges over various parts of the Arctic basin starting 4 or 5 days from now after this more mixed but heat-drawing pattern, there's a slight sense of lost hopes and dreams for both the sea ice catching a break and the UK's summer picking up reliably.

I suspect, though, that it's really a classic case of mishandled tropical signals that affects the next week or two but doesn't necessarily set the stage for July. The models did a very poor job capturing how an unusual combination of Africa-Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean standing waves would affect the mid- and high-latitude weather patterns. Not surprising given the rarity of such a situation. There's still time for further adjustments to the position of the various major ridges; it remains to be seen which areas of the Arctic will be hit hardest by warm imports, sunny weather, or both.

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_nhem_3.png ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_nhem_6.png

ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_nhem_7.png ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_nhem_11.png

Even with the usual uncertainty in mind, I'm really not liking how that large positive 850 hPa temp anomaly and 500 mb height anomaly combination not only persists, but migrates poleward. This is on an ensemble mean! Mind-blowing really. 

The associated surface high looks to be thoroughly interconnected with the upper-level warmth now; the anomalously warm air that's drawn in aloft (convergence aloft, divergence near and at surface) cools and sinks, reinforcing the high.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

MIA - Perhaps there is some small signs of improvment for the ice in the medium term in respect of what the models and in particular the UKMO and GFS are showing in that with the small deep low playing a part. I said in my last post this low is forecast to cross the central Arctic from the Laptev to the Beaufort region however a small change in the forecast is showing the low moving a little slower and sends a bit of energy towards Wrangel Island which in turn could put some pressure on the ESS high and weakening it somewhat. It could also bring some marginally cooler air and more cloud cover towards the ESS where its been quite sunny for the past few days and more. The other saving grace has been there has not been alot of wind across the ESS but the ice is looking quite diffuse with open water in between the ice floes so as i say its one region to keep an eye on for the foreseeable future. 

 

Of course we could get a set up similar to the ECM 12Z run which really ramps up the ESS high in the 192 and 240 range which would be more concerning as the winds will be blowing quite strong from the south and pushing open water northwards no doubt.

At least barring this fairly short lived deep low that is set to cross in the next few days, conditions look calm across the pole and the Atlantic side in general.

Also a note on extent for those who are not aware, this has slowed down quite a bit in the last 5 days quite similar to 2018 however unlike last year, area has still been dropping quite fast so compactness of the ice has dropped to lowest on record. Must be noted any compactness charts can fluctuate quite a fair bit so its best to look at it on a more average point of view and imo, this years compactness has been more or less on the low side so it will be interesting to see how this will affect this years final extent numbers. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
9 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

MIA - Perhaps there is some small signs of improvment for the ice in the medium term in respect of what the models and in particular the UKMO and GFS are showing in that with the small deep low playing a part. I said in my last post this low is forecast to cross the central Arctic from the Laptev to the Beaufort region however a small change in the forecast is showing the low moving a little slower and sends a bit of energy towards Wrangel Island which in turn could put some pressure on the ESS high and weakening it somewhat. It could also bring some marginally cooler air and more cloud cover towards the ESS where its been quite sunny for the past few days and more. The other saving grace has been there has not been alot of wind across the ESS but the ice is looking quite diffuse with open water in between the ice floes so as i say its one region to keep an eye on for the foreseeable future. 

 

Of course we could get a set up similar to the ECM 12Z run which really ramps up the ESS high in the 192 and 240 range which would be more concerning as the winds will be blowing quite strong from the south and pushing open water northwards no doubt.

At least barring this fairly short lived deep low that is set to cross in the next few days, conditions look calm across the pole and the Atlantic side in general.

 

however unlike last year, area has still been dropping quite fast so compactness of the ice has dropped to lowest on record. Must be noted any compactness charts can fluctuate quite a fair bit so its best to look at it on a more average point of view and imo, this years compactness has been more or less on the low side so it will be interesting to see how this will affect this years final extent numbers. 

GS...

Not aware I have posted in here for quite a time as I am still 'struggling' with my vision.

I have been watching and reading this thread with interest though and the views you assign to myself (?) are not a million miles from my viewpoints,....  LOL

 

The large drop in area is believed to be related to some of the large 'melt pools'. ie surface water on top of the ice.

Extent (as you point out) is still in the range for the last 10 years and yesterday was 5th position.  Today 6th!

Volume (according to DMI) is still 'normal'. 

Keep up the good work..

MIA   

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
3 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

GS...

Not aware I have posted in here for quite a time as I am still 'struggling' with my vision.

I have been watching and reading this thread with interest though and the views you assign to myself (?) are not a million miles from my viewpoints,....  LOL

 

The large drop in area is believed to be related to some of the large 'melt pools'. ie surface water on top of the ice.

Extent (as you point out) is still in the range for the last 10 years and yesterday was 5th position.  Today 6th!

Volume (according to DMI) is still 'normal'. 

Keep up the good work..

MIA   

Oops.. Bit of a late night moment there as I thought it was you posted above where of course it was Singularity, my apologies! 

Either way interesting stuff because yes melt ponds have been contributing to the large area loss but melt ponds seems widely agreed on for melt momentum later on in the melt season and let's face it, since mid February where the persistent southerly winds almost wiped out all the Bering sea ice, the weather patterns have been awful for the ice especially during the Spring months. 

I mentioned about how there was a slight potential for the ESS high might weaken somewhat, well todays runs have scoffed that thought up although in one way, it will be interesting how the ice will react to it as despite all the heat and energy so far, there has not been that much ice movement in that area unlike what we saw in the Beaufort during May. 

Also given how weaker the ice is. Is having persistent cyclones just as bad as high pressure? We saw just what happened in 2010/2013/2016 on what persistent cyclones can do to the pack even if albeit in 2010 and 2013, it did not reflect in extent numbers. 

Talking of volume, you mentioned DMI yet the PIOMAS volume numbers have come out and has seen this year tied at 2nd lowest with 2012 for volume so far so a large drop, all the supposed good work during the winter months is now history. We shall find out if this will reflect in extent numbers or not. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

There appear plenty of folk getting a bad dose of the hee be gee be's over on the ASIF for sure!

Since we found that 'Perfect melt storm synoptics ' were a regular visitor to the basin many of us have been dreading its return.

So far this is as close as we have seen to the 'mix' of conditions to challenge the new Arctic and its ice?

What we saw in 2012 was no re-run of 07' but it did the job on the then arctic pack ice?

I'm fearing that this year has it with bells on and by early Aug you'll be reading of it's peril in the media?

Let's get the next 10 days over with eh?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Got to say the next ten days do look pretty brutal, near constant WAA into the central Arctic, any cold spots are in useless locations.

Increasingly confident this is going to be a top 3 year for melt...it's just how high does it go in the list.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
8 hours ago, kold weather said:

Got to say the next ten days do look pretty brutal, near constant WAA into the central Arctic, any cold spots are in useless locations.

Increasingly confident this is going to be a top 3 year for melt...it's just how high does it go in the list.

Well in the short term im not sure i agree with that, the central arctic looks cooler and more slack  too me with the only area of the Arctic under the influence of high pressure is the East Siberian Sea.. There are fairly strong hints the high over the ESS may strengthen and become more established over the Arctic as a whole which if placed near the Beaufort could spell trouble for the ice.

Still have the theory that low pressure is good for the ice and high pressure is bad for the ice is too simplistic and may not necessary be true as years like 2012 and 2016 have shown.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

With the shift toward smaller , more mobile floes, export will play a far greater role than we saw in 07'/2012 esp. with kill zones for ice developing inside the basin where open water has been present since the start of the season.

I think we should also consider 'floe size' when looking at melt?

Apparently when floes go below 100 m they melt from the sides is more than the bottom melt so the same energy melts more ice and faster.

If we look at the areas of the pack that have undergone fragmentation there appears to be masses of such floes? At present they trigger the 15% or more for their grid square but how long before we see masses of ice 'blink out' as these teeny floes go away?

 

Once we used to see a 'June Cliff' , now it is becoming increasingly common to see ice growth in June as the pack 'loosens up' and flows into open water giving 'faux increases'.

This should then see a corresponding crash as we see that 'float off ice blink out and the 'rubble' around the main concentration of floes melt away.

If folk want to see major drops ( 200km +) then wait for July!!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Oh wow, just flicked between the 22nd and the 23rd on worldview and the changes in one day is incredible over on the ESS, fast ice crumbling, open water is increasing and that laptev bite is getting bigger and bigger. 

Hints this high pressure may finally break down but a long way off and perhaps too little too late. Got to the point where even moderate lows in August could just make it perfect to kill alot of ice as it will no doubt be weaken and diffused by then. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
5 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Oh wow, just flicked between the 22nd and the 23rd on worldview and the changes in one day is incredible over on the ESS, fast ice crumbling, open water is increasing and that laptev bite is getting bigger and bigger. 

Hints this high pressure may finally break down but a long way off and perhaps too little too late. Got to the point where even moderate lows in August could just make it perfect to kill alot of ice as it will no doubt be weaken and diffused by then. 

As I said a few days ago the conditions for the next few days is brutal. Sea ice extent is really going to fall away during the next 20 days, especially whilst insulation from the sun is still high.

IMO as I said, we are going top 3, it's just how bad it goes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Have to agree that things have been as bad as they could for many ice areas and what we are not seeing in 'losses' will be being measured in 'volume loss' meaning less ice to melt before seasons end?

With plenty of ice entering melt season at only 2m thick July is about the time we'd expect it to begin to fail so some gig losses to come as we move into July?

Also the 'peripheral ice' is now sat in warming waters so will melt out ever faster dropping extent/area below that 125% cover cut off so returning us to where we were before the central pack began to 'relax out' earlier in June?

The 'melt momentum' being built up under this 24hr sun will be hard to tame over the coming half of melt season esp. when we enter 'bottom melt' end of the season ( should be renamed bottom and side melt seeing as smaller floes lose more to side melt than they do bottom melt!) and , as folk have pointed out, any storms that form over ASug/early Sept will just give the ice a tumble in warmed waters and help export it to 'kill zones'.

I know it's never over until it's over but things are not looking good for the ice and I can easily see a top 2 slot come min?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
On 23/06/2019 at 13:51, kold weather said:

As I said a few days ago the conditions for the next few days is brutal. Sea ice extent is really going to fall away during the next 20 days, especially whilst insulation from the sun is still high.

IMO as I said, we are going top 3, it's just how bad it goes.

Well the high pressure over the ESS is finally retreating but hints we may see a true dipole, albeit mostly on the GFS model. Other runs seems more cyclonic which in theory should mean better conditions for the ice. 

Its hard to say if this year will be top 3, the only good news with all the high pressure is that there is probably not many holes in the ice sheet over the CAB as we saw in 2016 but melt pounding looks like its the worse since record began especially at lower latitudes. 

All very interesting for sure. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Been paying attention to this thread for a while now. 

Looking at the latest ECM, there’s some staggering warmth looking to affect the Bering sea and Western Laptev Sea over the next few days. It doesn’t look good at all, given the Beaufort sea has took an early hammering, as well as the East Siberian sea this week. 

I cannot see any promising uppers anywhere to sustain the ice now anywhere up there, given we could see a brutal cross polar flow developing, with that potentially blowtorching air heading N through Western and central Russia. 

2019 is running almost parallel with 2012, but has recently started nosediving once again, potentially surpassing it. Worrying times. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

2012 did not have ice as conditioned to melt as the ice sat in the water today?

If it is multiyear ice it is inevitably riddled with old fractures that are now 'glued together' with younger, less resilient ice so will fail over the coming weeks leaving ever smaller ,more mobile, floes to be exported.

FY ice came into the season warmer and thinner than the same classification in 2012 and so is less resilient under similar melt pressures.

All in all, though not the 'perfect melt storm' we saw in 07' 2019 is looking like it could prove to be , for this pack, a 'perfect melt/export' year?

The ice on the Atlantic side is already done for by seasons end , even faster if a strong dipole does set up and the Russian side of the pack is in rapid retreat.

The ice north of Greenland is also in danger of export and is also a well shattered pack so more mobile than if a single contiguous floe ( like so much of the 2012 pack at this date?)

We are at the time where the first big 'melt outs' will occur post the Early June 'growth' spurt as ice fragmented and flowed into empty waters. This ice will now all go over a short time frame (all being of a similar thickness and feeling roughly the same melt forcings) so expect some century losses coming up!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Well arguably the only measure that matters ( volume ) has dropped to lowest on record in June.

With Fram export being above average in june and all our best ice perched above Fram these are worrying times!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
On 27/06/2019 at 12:25, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Been paying attention to this thread for a while now. 

Looking at the latest ECM, there’s some staggering warmth looking to affect the Bering sea and Western Laptev Sea over the next few days. It doesn’t look good at all, given the Beaufort sea has took an early hammering, as well as the East Siberian sea this week. 

I cannot see any promising uppers anywhere to sustain the ice now anywhere up there, given we could see a brutal cross polar flow developing, with that potentially blowtorching air heading N through Western and central Russia. 

2019 is running almost parallel with 2012, but has recently started nosediving once again, potentially surpassing it. Worrying times. 

Could be good news for next winter here in the UK though, 2013 had a lot of blocking to the North East.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Piomas hits rock bottom for June so I imagine we are headed for a 'lowest ever' finish (in one or other measure) esp.when you look at the state of the bulk of the ice in the basin a.t.m.?

As I've said before we have not really seen this new, thinner, younger, warmer ice try and fend off a challenging summer ( as opposed to an 'average weather' summer?) but we have seen 'average summers' take a lot of ice over melt season since 2012......

I worry that we will be left in no doubt,this autumn/early winter, as to just how much our hemisphere's cweather are now being tweaked by low ice and the energy that the open water manages to amass. Some sea areas have been seeing massive amounts of energy dumped into them over May/June.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
55 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Piomas hits rock bottom for June so I imagine we are headed for a 'lowest ever' finish (in one or other measure) esp.when you look at the state of the bulk of the ice in the basin a.t.m.?

As I've said before we have not really seen this new, thinner, younger, warmer ice try and fend off a challenging summer ( as opposed to an 'average weather' summer?) but we have seen 'average summers' take a lot of ice over melt season since 2012......

I worry that we will be left in no doubt,this autumn/early winter, as to just how much our hemisphere's cweather are now being tweaked by low ice and the energy that the open water manages to amass. Some sea areas have been seeing massive amounts of energy dumped into them over May/June.....

Well we are approaching the part of the melt season where the shape in the basin starts to develop and can change quite rapidly. My only hope for this year is the lack of true divergence in the ice pack unlike in years like 2012 and 2016 which might save the ice from going to low but on the other hand, melt ponding must be up there as the worse we have seen so as I mentioned on the ASIF, this melt season will test what's worse for the ice long term, melt ponding or divergence? 

Looking at the upcoming weather pattern and it looks poor for the ESS, unlike earlier on, this could and probably should melt alot of ice there which means the open water is making further northwards progress because there is going to be a southerly flow there for the next 3 days or so with alot of heat. In general the weather pattern in the basin looks fairly slack and maybe in other years the weather patterns look fairly uneventful but not this year thats for sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...