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Model discussion - March drawing to a close


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Still some arctic potential on the GEFS 12z in the mid / longer term but also some very warm potential too..makes for fascinating viewing!

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
13 minutes ago, Don said:

Indeed, no interest from the Metoffice at the moment.

Yes Don and its a big no! At just 6 or 7 days out you would expect them to be white hot! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
13 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes Don and its a big no! At just 6 or 7 days out you would expect them to be white hot! 

Maybe the models are flattering to deceive, they look wintry on the face of it but perhaps the reality is not so much..every day that ticks by that sun is getting stronger..turns more to fool's gold as we go further into april..4 weeks ago this potential would have been great.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Odd, don't you think, that, with most of the models predicting a cold spell, next week, the folks at Exeter don't seem that interested? FV3 is headed down the same slippery slope to misery...

image.thumb.png.91facb064ad29140371b0e34f4dbad33.png

 

 

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Certainly the Gfs 12z operational is following the ukmo.. turning much colder next week with frosty nights and increasingly wintry / snow flurries..astonishing!!:cold-emoji:❄️ 

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Remarkable.... But damn, if this was just 2 or 3 weeks earlier.:wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Well the BBC is obviously paying close attention to the model output..Wales weather forecast just said the snow will move away for the weekend with temperatures lifting to 16 c, then went on to say there is a chance snow will return by the middle of next week!

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
2 minutes ago, Snipper said:

March has gone. Should this not be the April thread?

May open up a new thread in a bit for us seeing as we are in the start of the new month.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Perhaps the beeb are onto something and exeter are scared to get there fingers burned again!! UKMO and ECM are singing from the same hym sheet at 144hrs, and for me these are most definitely the king of models! 

UW144-7 (1).gif

ECM0-144.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM still keen on bringing the cold in at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.65897594b46160920c7c18437f91d8b9.jpg

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Will be interesting weather next week by all accounts!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

To me that looks colder than the 00z mike..another upgrade..or downgrade depending on personal preference.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Though the FV3 seems to be struggling a bit?

image.thumb.png.38d65152bd30fffc22b9457fd9932779.pngimage.thumb.png.47dbdbb1488e6b4bc0aa63139ddc8038.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Just now, Ed Stone said:

Though the FV3 seems to be struggling a bit?

image.thumb.png.38d65152bd30fffc22b9457fd9932779.pngimage.thumb.png.47dbdbb1488e6b4bc0aa63139ddc8038.png 

Never mind Pete, it's all in a parallel universe that model.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z looks colder next week compared to what we are seeing this week and of course some of us have had a covering of snow in the last few days with uppers of -4 / -5..even more chance next week with uppers of -7 /-8?

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T192:

image.thumb.jpg.ca4074428034e5ea8fc1d2669d34b771.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.5ada0c1f2403c1d71aaf9aa08b382a17.jpg

Impressive cold charts but this must surely be the turning point, warm air advection will now push this cold air mass aside, you would think?

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

I thought I wouldn’t be posting again till November but next week looking interesting there could be a chance snow showers eastern side of uk just a chance.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM would bring A rash of showers in across the ESE - Snow over higher ground 

Thicknesses ~ 527DAM

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Its been snowing across the uk with just -5 uppers this week!!surely with -7 uppers from the continent aswell it has to be snow next week lol!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

More and more coldies are coming out of hibernation with these amazing charts..even nick sussex is / was lurking ..Looking for shortwave drama eh nick

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

We may be watching a tragedy unfold as the pattern adjusts in accordance to the El Nino background by weakening the polar jet and allowing the unusually expansive high-latitude blocking to spread across the UK, bringing light winds and clear skies, just as some notably cold air moves in from the northeast. That's a recipe for widespread minimums at least a few below zero, and potentially 5 or more below in quite a lot of valley locations.

A lot of wildlife has sprung into action in the past month thanks to much kinder weather than last year brought but this, well, it could lead to widespread losses. The endangered bee populations are at risk for one thing. 

So as a fan of the natural world, I'm looking at these charts with horror instead (well okay, on top of...) of the usual awe. I'd have taken the 00z GFS' milder but wetter outcome over this, even after today's 12 mm and counting of rain here.

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