Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model discussion - March drawing to a close

Recommended Posts

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ripper!  -  just need some serious quantity of members on both suites to show it.

ENS for Yorkshire there....

graphe_ens3.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The Atlantic surface analysis for midnight, the 0300 sat. image and the 0500 UK chart

PPVA89.thumb.gif.825bbb961add83d6a0dcbb2b1f9a7760.gifgeo.thumb.JPG.72fb756641f6b5aa84a2e4ef6d235f92.JPG05.thumb.gif.f1aa83ac8a97a11c35c452ad0803a707.gif

The sat image illustrates the current position very well with the center of the low pressure swirling around in the south west and central southern England, with the old front still effecting the far north. So there is a lot of heavy showery activity, with hail and thunder, in the former area with snow down to quite low levels in Wales and perhaps the moors of the south west and this will continue through much of today and by late afternoon spreading a touch NW into N. Ireland as the low drifts around. Whilst at the same time the band of rain will hang around northern Scotland, moving away for a time this afternoon. Elsewhere it will be relatively dry on a cool day

110811654_maxt.thumb.png.4ca39abb241c0449c816194d36ed0393.pngp09.thumb.png.16329173969e2ad633ca989ee6228c3a.pngp14.thumb.png.51f44d005b9126a64f85355600ff3b87.pngp18.thumb.png.e18e4ad4b3ecf61ff3e09295d364d02c.png

Through early evening the showers will become less frequent and intense but more persistent rain will start effecting Cornwall and Devon by around 2200 as a frontal system tracks in from the south west and will move into SW Wales during the night.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.173eea90e1d1f02c34948dfea8acfecc.gifp23.thumb.png.a7876a006990cc99f8c6cc6d77d9b0e6.pngp06.thumb.png.c49ecb9845eaf56820555a2167f22515.png

The frontal system will linger around the south west and N. Ireland through Friday so remaining cloudy here with patchy rain, and the old front is still quite close to northern Scotland, but elsewhere dry with sunny intervals and warming up a tad in central and south east regions

PPVG89.thumb.gif.b99fd345e26037a7349d33cf9b6c5ad1.gif620110956_maxf.thumb.png.ec70493fe0e6e9fc8f968d96baf4e13c.pngr15.thumb.png.a1b9218b1f3da0c011751e20d5c48db6.png

Over Friday night the upper trough is drifting south west as high pressure consolidates to the north so Saturday a drier day with sunny intervals for many but a tad cooler with some intermittent rain/drizzle. courtesy of a warm front in eastern regions,

gfs_z500_vort_natl_11.thumb.png.e63114d18bbb5baa5d300404c8f2020a.pngPPVI89.thumb.gif.51c0f8cffdd75bc9a7935ddb7716a504.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.5712f44c223412c370209f9fe0995bff.gif

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_12.thumb.png.97194e26c61f3ede52252568c0061f62.pnggfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_12.thumb.png.b4cf56dfdc18e27ed84bd23c4b9d0e9e.png

Sunday will be dry and relatively sunny in many areas but there will be patchy rain in south west and southern regions from the aforementioned warm front and an occlusion that has sneaked up from the south. A tad cooler along the east coast in the now onshore easterly breeze

PPVM89.thumb.gif.941b1da39310e7314c88b860dd9cf415.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.828c9e1b332aad9b041cca167f03f47f.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.da2fb4dd19589e278ab5c7e93a727ba3.png

By Monday the complex frontal waves to the SW that can be seen on the above chart have tracked NW of Coruna and the associated fronts are lying across the south west so again some patchy rain here whilst dry elsewhere. And this has also resulted in an unusual N/S temp variation with the colder air to the south

PPVO89.thumb.gif.04e04cd6f2dfdeaebcc225adb391a727.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.117c61c7853e9756e0b656757cf3be5b.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

To continue with the gfs. By midday Wednesday there is a broad stretch of high pressure Canada to Scandinavia with the twin energy flows exiting the eastern seaboard tracking south east under this towards the trough now south of the UK. thus the UK in a brisk showery, easterly  with temps a tad below average, No huge changes over the next 48 hours, the energy is still running south of the UK but the high pressure is drifting a tad west and low sneaking into the south west of the country. So perhaps a tad warmer here but still chilly in the easterly breeze in the north east.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_27.thumb.png.e696be6059d191311bbea2e711fee9a6.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_35.thumb.png.e4a683e7ac2dbd499ff895ed892baa63.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The Ukmo 0h  although it becomes milder for a time in the short term, by T+144 it's turning colder from the east as an E'ly / NE'ly wind continues to set in..probably a risk of showers in the e / se / s from sunday but becoming predominantly settled elsewhere with sunny spells, especially further west but low cloud and mist could be a problem at times for counties bordering the north sea and cold enough for a risk of overnight frosts where skies clear and winds fall light in more sheltered western and northwestern areas.

UW96-7.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

UW144-21.gif

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The detail for the middle and latter part of next week is predicable different with the ecm  From Wednesday onwards it has low pressure to the south and east with the energy attempting to push in from the west under the elongated ridge to the north  This results in a very slack gradient over the UK with temps below average and some widespread frosts  Obviously the detail in this period is along way from a done deal.

t156.thumb.png.4ae728a3681fe610b5b345c5b8d3e22a.pngt180.thumb.png.e747414689d85fd8ab32b5cefdd92431.pngt204.thumb.png.a7587e13add90fd6be140204b8a2eeee.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

All-in-all not a very good run: no real heat and no real cold - dreich is the word! Not until the far reaches does much happen, until fronts move in from the SW and appear to threaten large swathes of the country with some considerable rainfall:

image.thumb.png.cca52246c8f445a0d4028db93ee593dc.png image.thumb.png.f1cb6a736c8d2980ce374a02da13c16d.png

And temps look like going up and down almost as fast as Katy Price's knickers!:shok:

image.thumb.png.f2726445e3fad4c725915e63493536c2.png

Edited by Ed Stone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

All-in-all not a very good run: no real heat and no real cold - dreich is the word! Not until the far reaches does much happen, until fronts move in from the SW and appear to threaten large swathes of the country with some considerable rainfall:

image.thumb.png.cca52246c8f445a0d4028db93ee593dc.png image.thumb.png.f1cb6a736c8d2980ce374a02da13c16d.png

And temps look like going up and down almost as fast as Katy Price's knickers!:shok:

It's an interesting run Ed, cold and warm slugging  it out :aggressive:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning all, so a late wintry-ish blast this week and next week, probably a little too late in the season for the pattern to produce widespread snow but could be close.

Further on - signs that a mid-Atlantic low may encourage something much warmer from the S/SW, but I remain slightly sceptical; I feel that, by this time of year, once a Greenland or Iceland High appears once, it can be tough to displace quickly. I wouldn't overlook cluster 1 from last night's EPS (D13).

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019040312_324.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Morning all, so a late wintry-ish blast this week and next week, probably a little too late in the season for the pattern to produce widespread snow but could be close.

Further on - signs that a mid-Atlantic low may encourage something much warmer from the S/SW, but I remain slightly sceptical; I feel that, by this time of year, once a Greenland or Iceland High appears once, it can be tough to displace quickly. I wouldn't overlook cluster 1 from last night's EPS (D13).

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019040312_324.

Which , allowing for the horrible map projection, is not a million miles from this morning's run at day 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Morning all, so a late wintry-ish blast this week and next week, probably a little too late in the season for the pattern to produce widespread snow but could be close.

Further on - signs that a mid-Atlantic low may encourage something much warmer from the S/SW, but I remain slightly sceptical; I feel that, by this time of year, once a Greenland or Iceland High appears once, it can be tough to displace quickly. I wouldn't overlook cluster 1 from last night's EPS (D13).

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019040312_324.

I find myself sceptical of forecasts in general, and particularly so towards those pertaining to the Spring months; everything is so often on something of a knife-edge...With expected variability in mind, my only fear is of something akin to 2012 occurring; and, week after week of cold, miserable dross does not inspire me...It depresses me...It might make @markyo happy, however...Morning Mark!:oldgood::oldgrin:

Meanwhile, will today's runs point toward ESE or to ENE winds?

Edited by Ed Stone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

All the main models at day 6 showing cool/coldish Conditions at day 6, currently cold miserable with a rain and snow mix here in the west midlands, does not enspire me one bit.. Its thoroughly depressing tbh! Hopefully some brighter warmer conditions by the weekend, but those draped around East coasts are going to have a largely dire weekend with cloud off the N sea... Colder air threatens next week, but not cold enough to bring any meaningful snow! Roll on spring proper, I have numerous jobs to do and this weather type is now just serving to be an hindrance. 

gfs-1-144.png

gfs-1-144 (1).png

ECM0-144.gif

UW144-7.gif

Edited by Mattwolves

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning all 🙂

The key to breaking the E'ly won't be an Atlantic LP but the Azores HP returning to the scene and ridging north pulling the jet back north with it.

Very confused modelling this morning from the 0Z suite in my view with a lot of uncertainty as we approach mid month and beyond. 

I note Mr Beard's comments with regard to the EC ENS clusters and he may be right. The problem though isn't from the north, it's from the south.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The ext mean EPS is in familiar territory this morning so I'll refrain from superfluous comment except to note that this pattern does allow the subtropical high to flex

9-14.thumb.png.481e9a8bfd9ae4cf3fb663a279e9c9bd.png

The 0900 sat image

geo.thumb.JPG.2888b651cb1a139c32bf059ebd332367.JPG

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh, deary me: ne'er cast a cloot till August is oot!🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.8266aa296feb72169fa1dbb595e3eeb4.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Longer term there are still hints that the azores high / ridge or indeed high pressure generally may start to play a bigger part from around mid April / Easter onwards.

21_330_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

At last! There is a growing signal (at least from recent runs) of some much warmer southwesterly winds coming in::oldgood:

image.thumb.png.6393b5938e983ff77ab7440b15087e28.pngimage.thumb.png.19a98dce65731a976be8a4a671823c36.png 

Oops! Spoke too soon...Again!:olddoh:

 

image.png

Edited by Ed Stone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some of the 6z GEFS members are also a stonker.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GEFS 6z mean is a bit more bullish about high pressure longer term than the 00z.

21_348_500mb.png

21_378_500mb.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS 6z mean is a bit more bullish about high pressure longer term than the 00z.

 

 

Its also a bit more bullish about the possibility of snow next week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its also a bit more bullish about the possibility of snow next week.

Any charts buddy!!!!!bloomin freezing here today in the midlands!!nothing like the weather we had last week!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any charts buddy!!!!!bloomin freezing here today in the midlands!!nothing like the weather we had last week!!

image.thumb.png.e0855d3186b4502bf1ade93e8d7b760c.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.e0855d3186b4502bf1ade93e8d7b760c.png

Wow!!!!!!didnt expect it to bottom out like that between the 9th and 14th!!control agrees as well!those would easily give snow especially with winds coming in from the continent!looks a like a graph that you would normally see mid winter!interesting 12zs coming up thats for sure!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now that's what I call a Good Friday!!😜

18_372_500mb.png

18_372_2mtmpmax.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...