Model discussion - March drawing to a close

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

All eyes on this evening ECM. 

Coldies are coming out of hibernation early, even Steve M is posting I see.

Even though I am one of the die hard coldies, I would put the chance of any significant one now, at about 10%. 

Edited April 3, 2019 by Mattwolves

[snowray]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Even though I am one of the die hard coldies, I would put the chance of any significant one now, at about 10%. 

Yes but snow can still give temporary coverings virtually anywhere in April, right through to the end of the month. Thunder snow was even reported in London this afternoon, and there's a pic on the SE thread showing it settling.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Even though I am one of the die hard coldies, I would put the chance of any significant one now, at about 10%. 

It's now easily reached the time of year where it doesn't matter whether it succeeds or fails..unlike if it was showing the stonking charts in Jan, Feb or Indeed the first half of March...on the other hand, I would like to see what we could squeeze out of the most wintry scenario out of curiosity.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

It's now easily reached the time of year where it doesn't matter whether it succeeds or fails..unlike if it was showing the stonking charts in Jan, Feb or Indeed the first half of March...on the other hand, I would like to see what we could squeeze out of the most wintry scenario out of curiosity.

I agree with your post Karl, most definitely... But I would be concerned about the met having know mention of much colder weather at all

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I agree with your post Karl, most definitely... But I would be concerned about the met having know mention of much colder weather at all

Alas, I think the cold pool is running out of oomph, Matt...even the deepest of reservoirs eventually runs dry?

 

[Atmogenic]

19 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Brace yaselfs, its coming.... A Spanish plume that is!!!!! And how about a repeat of the latter chart I've posted again this year!! Won't be long folks before we see this!! 

I'll take the second for 1,000 please Matt 

[knocker]

This evening's ecm is not without interest because this morning's run differs quite markedly with this evening's gfs at quite an early stage such as here

[Methuselah]

Looks like someone spoke too soon! The cold pool must have heard Theresa May's latest adage: If at first you don't succeed, try and try and try and try and try and try again...until Sol goes nova!

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Alas, I think the cold pool is running out of oomph, Matt...even the deepest of reservoirs eventually runs dry? 

This is a valid point Pete, we are indeed running out of cold pools at this time of year! Obviously in freakish events, things can change. It's not unusual at this time of the year to see cold and warm air masses battling it out in the vicinity of the UK. UKMO is potentially bringing something much colder, will be interesting to see where the ECM takes it later,,, gfs first flagged it up, but typically in gfs style, seems to be backing away from the idea! Also worth noting alot of the senior forecasters on netweather and indeed other sites, met included, seem to not be flagging up any kind of significant cold snap! Hence the reason I said about a 10%risk. Personally I think it will be played down.... But I stand to be corrected.

Edited April 3, 2019 by Mattwolves

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Sums up the cold warm airmass scenarios being played out during the coming days!! Here at day 7 we have the GFSP trying to put us into some very cold air. And here beyond day 10 with GFS we have a potential plume in the making!! Pick ya poison...

On a positive note in the more short term... Weekend temps could be into the high teens away from the East Coast, where it will be unfortunately... Thoroughly miserable. 

Edited April 3, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

Well, looking at the GEFS 12z out to mid April there is still a threat of arctic incursions but also a chance we could import some very warm air up from the south..so to me..it's a potential battle that we are heading for.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean offers an olive branch just in time for Easter.

[Mike Poole]

Well it is an interesting period for UK weather for sure.  Here's the FV3 at T216 with some particularly cold air headed for us:

As an aside, it's worth pointing out I am interested in this weather pattern not because it may bring late winter, it won't, it is purely that this is unusual weather at this time of year and as such very interesting!

[knocker]

This is roughly the pattern indicated by recent ext EPS The center of the trailing ridge over Canada; a pretty inert Atlantic but enough energy running west in the south to infiltrate the UK

Edited April 3, 2019 by knocker

[Methuselah]

Tuesday still looks okay for my farm-work, as, with the wind veering a tad, the worst of the North Sea clag should be reserved for more northerly locations...I hope!

[snowray]

29 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well it is an interesting period for UK weather for sure.  Here's the FV3 at T216 with some particularly cold air headed for us:

As an aside, it's worth pointing out I am interested in this weather pattern not because it may bring late winter, it won't, it is purely that this is unusual weather at this time of year and as such very interesting!

Why is it unusual? There have been lots of Aprils with Northern blocking and cold plunges that have produced Easterlies, usually not snowy easterlies, but certainly Northerlies and North Easterlies that have produced snowfall.

On that note....ECM T120.

[Mike Poole]

^      Maybe unusual was a poor word, unseasonal better perhaps?  But bear in mind that this cold April spell (if it actually happens) is still a relatively  unlikely event, perhaps depends on location once we get further from winter itself.  

ECM T168:

 

Edited April 3, 2019 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I think ECM not looking quite has menacing has the morning run!! - 4 uppers at this point, nothing but a complete hindrance. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

GFS, GFSP and ECM at 216hrs!! Like I said earlier ECM running out of Puff! 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm cold shot from the 00z has gone pear shaped on the 12z but it's April so Meh, on the other hand we still have the Ukmo going for it all guns blazing but coldies are well used to great looking potential going pete tong....but summers coming!!

[Methuselah]

Looks like we might be heading for a bit of a battleground scenario: will the cold air and the southern warmth collide, somewhere over the UK? Possible flooding issues?

  

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm cold shot from the 00z has gone pear shaped on the 12z but it's April so Meh, on the other hand we still have the Ukmo going for it all guns blazing but coldies are well used to great looking potential going pete tong....but summers coming!!

Yep Karl, ECM at 240 is bringing in warmer air from the south! Like you said.. Who really cares at this stage of the year! Mind you, when next winter comes around I'm gonna be getting agitated when it keeps teasing before dropping the idea. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Looks like we might be heading for a bit of a battleground scenario: will the cold air and the southern warmth collide, somewhere over the UK? Possible flooding issues?  

 

Hopefully somewhere over the Shetland Isles Pete!

[knocker]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

This is roughly the pattern indicated by recent ext EPS The center of the trailing ridge over Canada; a pretty inert Atlantic but enough energy running west in the south to infiltrate the UK

Which is now more or less the position of the ecm with a not quite so inert Atlantic

Edited April 3, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yep Karl, ECM at 240 is bringing in warmer air from the south! 

The mean still to come but unlike in winter when I would be all tense, I'm not now the days are much longer and the Sun's influence gains strength daily.