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Model discussion - March drawing to a close

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Sounds about right Karl... I was viewing temps in siberia earlier and it was like - 10 at worse.... Deep into Russia around 3-5c

Indeed, only the arctic will do now.

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, only the arctic will do now.

Yeh... The Antarctica... Currently around - 54 with a feels like value of - 75C, now that's cold! 

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Yeh... The Antarctica... Currently around - 54 with a feels like value of - 75C, now that's cold! 

I really liked the Gfs 00z operational because it showed -15 uppers heading south and +15 uppers heading north..that's one of the things I love about spring..the duality.

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9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Ironic that now it looks like we will get an Easterly there's no cold to tap into..kind of sums up the last 4 or 5 months for coldies.

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Looking to be a tad warmer/humider come the weekend:

image.thumb.png.08bba37149f72dcc5a2e91dc182a8190.pngimage.thumb.png.68774d861e1b9d44ca8bba2e97a99320.png 

Not so good, for those by the North Sea coast.

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It's certainly cold for most of the week, towards next weekend perhaps less cold, the winds tend to be kicking back to a more SEtly direction and its quite warm in those parts currently. Notice how close low pressure is to the SW next weekend... Could be a spoiler for sure! 

gfs-1-174.png

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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Things trending warmer as the run unfolds: 

 Over to the FV3?

Look at the cold pool to our East Pete, and we seem to be pulling in a more E/SEtly!! We need a more E/NEtly! 

gfs-1-234.png

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Compared to the 20c 68f recorded in the south yesterday, the Gfs 12z operational looks much colder through the working week ahead with temps from tues to fri really struggling to reach double digits celsius and becoming very April showery ..temps then rise a little further south next weekend and it also becomes somewhat drier through week 2 with winds more SE'ly from a warmer source then it turns wet from the southwest before winds become southerly with much warmer potential going forward. 

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Edited by Frosty.

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Like what Karl said above but with the added point of low pressure bringing a potentially unsettled week after next scenario, especially in Western and SW areas! 

gfs-1-276.png

gfs-0-276.png

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2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Look at the cold pool to our East Pete, and we seem to be pulling in a more E/SEtly!! We need a more E/NEtly! 

gfs-1-234.png

Would ye look at that, Matt! What a stonker! Shame it won't happen...🌞:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.298b6a2c7dcd4ed0bc8a61d928b16551.pngimage.thumb.png.e632528937f94ecf0b8f98f3867de2ff.png  

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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Would ye look at that, Matt! What a stonker! Shame it won't happen...🌞:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.298b6a2c7dcd4ed0bc8a61d928b16551.pngimage.thumb.png.e632528937f94ecf0b8f98f3867de2ff.png  

It might happen Ed..Pete..if exeter are right..warmer 2nd half of April and all that👍😜

Edited by Frosty.

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Kind of goes with what exeter are saying.... Warmth on the way beyond mid April... Looking good to me... Its kind of got me thinking!!!!! 

gfs-1-372.png

Wnw1vWL-1.jpg

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The GEFS 12z mean is trending increasingly blocked / less unsettled with scandi height rises in the run up to mid april.

21_246_500mb.png

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27 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Kind of goes with what exeter are saying.... Warmth on the way beyond mid April... Looking good to me... Its kind of got me thinking!!!!! 

gfs-1-372.png

Wnw1vWL-1.jpg

lost complete trust in met long term forecasts. they were banging on about cold all winter, easterly winds etc. even in to Feb. in fact the complete opposite happened and we had record heat

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12 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

lost complete trust in met long term forecasts. they were banging on about cold all winter, easterly winds etc. even in to Feb. in fact the complete opposite happened and we had record heat

That's what the seasonal models were telling them..they ain't God's who can control the weather..anyway, the models look increasingly unsettled and colder (trough / cold pool..very showery) for most of the week ahead but signs that week 2 will be less unsettled and milder?

Edited by Frosty.

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And the FV3 ends by putting the OP's potential plume on hold. Still, not to be sniffed at?

image.thumb.png.10f4b569dcc0055a02a8634e6b277044.pngimage.thumb.png.45f7ba87e3f239e6a241665de13b3db2.png  

Ensemble heading in the right direction: image.thumb.png.a2bd7ee031c2a7dde8e8f963bfc81f21.png

 

Edited by Ed Stone

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I wouldn't mind this in the days just before Easter..ideally continuing during Easter!🌞😜🏖️

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Edited by Frosty.

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ECM T72 shows a proper northerly blast in the early hours of Wednesday:

image.thumb.jpg.41e3c4ff69feda62ac21a88fd9be5c58.jpg

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There could be a few snowy surprises with this and it is in the reliable now, ignore the GFS precipitation charts, as it looks like there will be some significant showers and if they occur overnight and are heavy enough then with evaporative cooling some could be waking to a snow cover on Wednesday morning.

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Anyway, no sign of a heatwave in the coming week:crazy:

Edited by Mapantz
Removed image

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Ecm showing charts we were craving all winter finally arrive, in April.😏 Too late, isn't it always, now for most low ground to see any meaningful snow, but severe conditions if you live in the Cairngorms developing at about 2000ft as the week progresses but don't think many members live there😅

So a complete waste of sypnotics, typical.. 

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Possible convergence zones setting up through Wales in to the far Southwest, midweek. They could produce a lot of rainfall in one or two places. The further South and East you are, it's not looking too bad. Not a huge amount of rain in the offiing and plenty of sunshine.

BRAEU_72.thumb.gif.7ca763183b6a28b664d395a100174c59.gif BRAEU_96.thumb.gif.07adab98721a8a17f475fb1710f2ec7b.gif

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1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Ecm showing charts we were craving all winter finally arrive, in April.😏 Too late, isn't it always, now for most low ground to see any meaningful snow, but severe conditions if you live in the Cairngorms developing at about 2000ft as the week progresses but don't think many members live there😅

So a complete waste of sypnotics, typical.. 

Yes it looks very marginal, cold rain for many but the showers on tuesday could have some hail and thunder with sleet and wet snow on hills.

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Proper signs of improvement on the Ecm 12z by day 10, much less trough influence with higher pressure generally, the uppers also showing signs of rising and in any sunshine it would feel very pleasant of course.

240_mslp500.png

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Proper signs of improvement on the Ecm 12z by day 10, much less trough influence with higher pressure generally, the uppers also showing signs of rising and in any sunshine it would feel very pleasant of course.

240_mslp500.png

Yes Karl, and added to that it looks a bit like a parrot.  Which is nice.

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The Gem hardly gets mentioned but the 12z at least looks a bit warmer by day 10 but quite unsettled for the southwest of the uk, largely fine further n / e.

GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

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