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Model discussion - March drawing to a close


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's a shame there isn't a mid res!!:crazy:

Thing is Karl I wasn't even making the point about high v low resolution, my point was just to say we had wintry charts showing inside 3 days, when all winter they have continously stayed at 7-10 days, so it makes a change basically!! Anyway Karl read the post from Barnsleylad above you..... Its April.... Its a waste of time! So we may as well move into spring pronto!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Anyway Karl read the post from Barnsleylad above you..... Its April.... Its a waste of time! So we may as well move into spring pronto!

I read it but decided it was a waste of my time replying to it.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Thing is Karl I wasn't even making the point about high v low resolution, my point was just to say we had wintry charts showing inside 3 days, when all winter they have continously stayed at 7-10 days, so it makes a change basically!! Anyway Karl read the post from Barnsleylad above you..... Its April.... Its a waste of time! So we may as well move into spring pronto!

I don't think snow is ever a waste of time.  Think 1989 and 2008 (don't remember snow in April 1981).  Ok, the snow didn't last as it wouldn't in April, but still provided a few hours of fun at least!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
5 minutes ago, Don said:

High resolution brings everything back to reality after viewing low resolution!

High res... Low res.... Potato.. Potarto! We would have know eye candy to view at all if we just went on low res! What a thoroughly miserable cold chase that would be! 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

High res... Low res.... Potato.. Potarto! We would have know eye candy to view at all if we just went on low res! What a thoroughly miserable cold chase that would be! 

I agree, low resolution makes for good eye candy and like you said, it's within 72 hours, which makes a change!  You never know, some places may get some surprises come Wednesday........

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, Don said:

I don't think snow is ever a waste of time.  Think 1989 and 2008 (don't remember snow in April 1981).  Ok, the snow didn't last as it wouldn't in April, but still provided a few hours of fun at least!

I agree, snow is never a waste of time, it's a luxury item that should be cherished..even in June 1975!!

Anyway, April showers galore from tuesday with everything including the kitchen sink.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I agree, snow is never a waste of time, it's a luxury item that should be cherished..even in June 1975!!

Anyway, April showers galore from tuesday with everything including the kitchen sink.

So if it snows in a vicinity by you next week.... Get ready to frame it folks!!! It could be one for the grandkids in decades to come!!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I agree, snow is never a waste of time, it's a luxury item that should be cherished..even in June 1975!!

Anyway, April showers galore from tuesday with everything including the kitchen sink.

It would be great to have a repeat of June 1975 this year, especially after what for many was a snowless winter!  It was similar in 1975 with winter 74/75 also being exceptionally mild and I imagine snowless for many, too?  To think summer 1975 was hot overall, makes the June snow even more intriguing! 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
30 minutes ago, Don said:

High resolution brings everything back to reality after viewing low resolution!

I tell you what brings everything back to reality Don... Viewing the GFSP!! - 8 uppers just off the SW tip!! gonna be a bit nippy to take a dip!

gfs-0-102.png

gfs-1-102.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I really like where the extended GEFS 6z mean is taking us..all the way to pleasantville!!

21_264_500mb.png

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21_342_500mb.png

21_366_500mb.png

21_378_500mb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Nothing particularly warm from the para again though Karl, and this deeper fi chart kind of ties in with what the met are saying.... Unsettled at times towards the West and South West! Its also still showing its cold bias hand as well.

gfs-0-384.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

I tell you what brings everything back to reality Don... Viewing the GFSP!! - 8 uppers just off the SW tip!! gonna be a bit nippy to take a dip!

gfs-0-102.png

gfs-1-102.png

GFSP clearly has a cold fetish and is in trouble for it, hence its delay!   Could be correct just this once though? 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
12 minutes ago, Don said:

GFSP clearly has a cold fetish and is in trouble for it, hence its delay!   Could be correct just this once though? 

Think I'm right in saying the Gfs parallel lost it's cold fetish yesterday but  has got it's mojo back so far today

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Another dodgy CFS run, keeps things unsettled and cool till the start of May! Obviously long way off... But could it be a potentially mixed start to spring! Some fine spells in summer but a fair amount of cooler changeable conditions to boot! Kind of like 2017 perhaps! 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Personally, I'm looking forward to some warm, sunny Spring weather, ASAP. But, if there's a short, sharp snap of -12 uppers, across the North Sea from Scandi, before the warmth arrives, I'll take it...one can hardly make it go away, can one?:cold:

And, as for the CFS -- when is it not 'dodgy'!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Another dodgy CFS run

I think the CFS is dodgy full stop..I notice the longer range signal for the second half of April from the pro's is still looking predominantly settled and warmer..warmer still towards the end of april.

Ed beat me to it..again..but only by seconds

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

So April could have a recold breaking cold spell if fl in gfs comes off with minus 20 uppers appearing in far fl moving towards UK

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think the CFS is dodgy full stop..I notice the longer range signal for the second half of April from the pro's is still looking predominantly settled and warmer..warmer still towards the end of april.

Ed beat me to it..again..but only by seconds

Probably the reason my forecasts are so dodgy Karl and Pete... Just like an avid daily express reader... I view the CFS daily!

What do you mean Karl... What the pros are saying! I thought all the pros were on here!

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

 I view the CFS daily!

Fair play to you, I don't but I'm sure plenty do.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
13 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

So April could have a recold breaking cold spell if fl in gfs comes off with minus 20 uppers appearing in far fl moving towards UK

Are you referring to this sleety? 

gfs-1-384.png

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
34 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Are you referring to this sleety? 

gfs-1-384.png

Indeed.Just look how cold those uppers are for this time of year.Now we are out of the winter months,most probably will verify .How cold would it be at the surface if they made it over the UK?

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
20 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Indeed.Just look how cold those uppers are for this time of year.Now we are out of the winter months,most probably will verify .How cold would it be at the surface if they made it over the UK?

Those - 12 uppers would moderate some what.. I would have thought at this time of the year.. Perhaps around 0-2c, that's if those - 12 uppers made landfall at those figures. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Ironic that now it looks like we will get an Easterly there's no cold to tap into..kind of sums up the last 4 or 5 months for coldies.

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Just now, Frosty. said:

Ironic that now it looks like we will get an Easterly there's no cold to tap into..kind of sums up the last 4 or 5 months for coldies.

Sounds about right Karl... I was viewing temps in siberia earlier and it was like - 10 at worse.... Deep into Russia around 3-5c

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