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Model discussion - March drawing to a close


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

A quick butcher's at the scrag-ends of the Op and the FV3 (00Z) shows that, in comparison to yesterday's (00Z) runs, warmer air looks more like winning-out, in the end, than it did previously (if my memory serves!):

Op:  image.thumb.png.56b53df5043e1fb3988227736ae31126.png FV3: image.thumb.png.4a33a4bb105bf2b60bd76417f9a4f352.png

A question for the experts: is the FV3 being continually adjusted, on an ad hoc basis, or is it still demonstrating its cold bias until somebody presses a switch...which is what I am assuming...?

BTW, GFS Op is very-much on the warmer side of the ensemble:

image.thumb.png.7d17680baf88fbea066c728cf91b9365.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

A question for the experts: is the FV3 being continually adjusted, on an ad hoc basis, or is it still demonstrating its cold bias until somebody presses a switch...which is what I am assuming...?

BTW, GFS Op is very-much on the warmer side of the ensemble:

image.thumb.png.7d17680baf88fbea066c728cf91b9365.png

The cold bias GFS P has won't be fixed until April or May

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Nice..and that's midday..it would rise well into the low 20's c by 3 or 4 pm :oldgood:

00_372_mslp850.png

00_372_uk2mtmp.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
45 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The cold bias GFS P won't be fixed until April or May

That's a shame, I was enjoying the cold eye candy FI charts

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Its a complex set up - reliable timeframe preety small at present. Trough domination, cold to boot and not very springlike, then difficult to call. Heights are set to build over N Scandi, likewise azores high set to amplify through mid atlantic, low heights develop to the south - a real messy pick and mix selection with the UK in a col - might see a slow moving trough feature split and sink through the UK, high pressure might nose in from the NE and pull in a cold NE feed.. 

April and May typically bring the most complex weather synoptics, and are the most fickle months - hard to predict, when there are often odd turn of events against the usual atlantic grain.

Next week has high potential to end up the coldest relative to normal all year so far - an easy feat given how mild most weeks have been compared to the norm.

A brrr start to April..

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Wednesday looks like being a convective Nirvana: cold start, light winds and rapid cloud build-up...the potential for plentiful hail & thunder:

 image.thumb.png.f80252d3e518eddb93943149cac16a5c.png image.thumb.png.fa187b387c546ef6df9c62d6836ca905.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Wednesday looks like being a convective Nirvana: cold start, light winds and rapid cloud build-up...the potential for plentiful hail & thunder:

 image.thumb.png.f80252d3e518eddb93943149cac16a5c.png image.thumb.png.fa187b387c546ef6df9c62d6836ca905.png

Aye ed,, supports snow for a time, around 6pm tues to midday Wed

hgt500-1000.png

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye ed,, supports snow for a time, around 6pm tues to midday Wed

hgt500-1000.png

Indeed high lapse rates and evaporative cooling combined with light winds and little mixing of the cold air, could bring a wintry surprise to relatively low ground, indeed high chance.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 6z operational is thundery wintry showers heaven next week with a showery trough centred slap bang over the uk..deceptively sunny starts giving way to blossoming shower clouds and deluges.  .can't wait!

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Proper cold not too far away on the 06z gfs. Wouldn’t take much to bring in a bitter easterly with convective potential. Shame this wasn’t on offer a month ago! 

4D678D2F-0BAF-4B9F-AD37-B3A40D94AC6F.png

B50794E7-99B5-44E8-990C-60655ED35C0E.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

it won't, Atlantic and jet too strong, PV too aggressive, all that weakens in April

This has got to be one of the most bizarre statements I've ever seen posted on here!! It's basically a smack in the face to all the cold winters that have taken place over the decades! With to strong a jet and PV, non of them should have taken place.... They must have been all freaks! Anyway not much to report, colder next week with showers, some wintry in place... Temps perhaps recovering a bit towards end of next week... Nothing special though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I imagine this would feel pleasant following all the unseasonably chilly weather the Gfs 6z operational shows..next week is looking very showery, the following week drier but still cool, a bit milder at times across southern uk.

06_372_uk2mtmp.png

06_372_mslp850.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

So there we have it: a cold spell with fantastic convection, and even a chance of some snow; a bit of a no-man's-land; a possible incursion of cold air from the east; a notable warm-up as we approach mid-month - all perhaps culminating in an Atlantic revival, of sorts...?

image.thumb.png.07c6bf6887c2a111b58a3c5cf26efd57.pngimage.thumb.png.719a50fbebaac255fede02e9e881e97c.png 

Something for everyone?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

So the FV3 comes along and keeps the cold uppers pinned-down hundreds of miles away to our northeast...

image.thumb.png.04c491a4eaa9604648d2534f359f33f1.pngimage.thumb.png.d279c0513fc0b716f8971868f95dd514.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

These are great charts from the GEFS 6z mean...honestly they are if you love heavy slow moving thundery wintry showers and who doesn't love thundery wintry showers??!!

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21_108_500mb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Wednesday looks like being a convective Nirvana: cold start, light winds and rapid cloud build-up...the potential for plentiful hail & thunder:

 image.thumb.png.f80252d3e518eddb93943149cac16a5c.png image.thumb.png.fa187b387c546ef6df9c62d6836ca905.png

Possibly an odd Tornado. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

That would be a sensational day 10 ecm ens mean in winter..server overload..meltdown!!

EDM1-240.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And the FV3 also threatens an Atlantic resurgence around mid-April:

image.thumb.png.f68f64c02e15c4d972fd9834b47aba91.pngimage.thumb.png.2a7466b5ad325e113297c5234cfe202a.png 

And the ensemble: image.thumb.png.e36fcb267743f7d554c1aa07219cfbfb.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean indicates a strong blocking signal as we head towards mid april with the atlantic becoming very sluggish.

21_294_500mb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

This has got to be one of the most bizarre statements I've ever seen posted on here!! It's basically a smack in the face to all the cold winters that have taken place over the decades! With to strong a jet and PV, non of them should have taken place.... They must have been all freaks! Anyway not much to report, colder next week with showers, some wintry in place... Temps perhaps recovering a bit towards end of next week... Nothing special though. 

His posts always raise a little chuckle. Every year is of course the same...

Anyway, on the subject of the weather getting flabbier into spring - so looks the upcoming easterly. A fine line between cloudy and cold, and cool and convective.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Spring Vs Winter..let battle commence!!!:aggressive:

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

A quick reminder tomorrow sees the UK spring forward into British summer time and this means all models from 00z tomorrow (Sunday 31st) will be 1 hour later in updating

Approx times for the main models

GFS

00Z 0430-0545

06Z 1030-1145

12Z 1630-1745

18Z 2230-2345

ECM

00Z 0700-0800

12Z 1900-2000

UKMO (Updates usually complete within 30 minutes)

00Z 0500

12Z 1700

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Well well, British Summer time starts in the early hours of tomorrow and guess what, the Gfs 6z operational shows snow next week, most of or Indeed all of the winter for me anyway was pish but there could be more snow next week than we saw in dec and most of jan..which wouldn't be difficult!!

06_84_preciptype.png

06_114_preciptype.png

06_120_preciptype.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well well, British Summer time starts in the early hours of tomorrow and guess what, the Gfs 6z operational shows snow next week, most of or Indeed all of the winter for me anyway was pish but there could be more snow next week than we saw in dec and most of jan..which wouldn't be difficult!!

06_84_preciptype.png

06_114_preciptype.png

06_120_preciptype.png

Yes indeed -- a depth of 2 flakes will do that for me, especially should they be BIG flakes!

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