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Model discussion - March drawing to a close

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Lovely charts for early Jan, Feb or March...But for early April yuk! Bet they verify too!😟

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Quite funny looking through the netwx-mr 12z, every day across the next 7 days there's some snow somewhere, and not just always on the hills of northern Britain. Some thundery, wintry April showers on the menu too, should make @Thundery wintry showers happy!

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28 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, in winter that would be..from russia with love 💘..I'm sure something would scupper it though..as usual!😁

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Spoiler shortwaves would be my guess, Karl!:oldgood:

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

Spoiler shortwaves would be my guess, Karl!:oldgood:

Yeah, a nick sussex shortwave!..:gathering:

Anyway, next week looks like a rude shock to the system following today's 19c and unbroken sunshine for some.

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Pretty impressive look at day 6 from six of the models.. GFS. GFSP... ICON... JMA... GEM.... ECM. Quite solid agreement there. 

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Posted (edited)

Looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, it turns colder from the north on sunday and then next week indicates wintry showers potential as it turns unsettled / cyclonic with a cold pool over the uk,..I think it won't be just the hills that see snow falling at times next week although that's where the highest risk is, eventually the in-situ trough fills and drifts further south so the risk of showers should decrease later..and night frosts can be expected where skies clear and winds fall light..gardeners beware!

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Edited by Frosty.
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This evening's EPS mean anomalies illustrate quite well what the det runs have been indicating. That is quite an amplified upstream with thigh pressure in the Alaskan/Siberia region and a quite intense Canadian vortex resulting in a strong westerly upper flow exiting the north eastern seaboard. But changes are afoot downstream and and the Atlantic and European subtropical high pressure zones are amplifying which plunges the upper trough south over the UK en route to the western Mediterranean which introduces cooler and more unsettled conditions over the UK.

According to the ecm the Atlantic ridge now subsides but with the European ridge now established over northern Scandinavia and the trough in western Europe the upper flow now diverges markedly as it approaches the eastern Atlantic leaving the UK in a very slack low pressure area. This portends a quite unsettled period with temps a tad below average but the detail will need to be pinned down by subsequent det runs.

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And at the moment there would appear to be little indication of much change in the ext period and NOAA tends to go along with this

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I would just like to thank Paul for giving us more time to edit our posts..I've found the extra time very helpful / welcome.:oldsmile:

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No surprise to see the northerlies and easterlies enter the fray as we begin April, entirely normal, April and May are our most 'northerly' and 'easterly' months, and blocking to the north and east can be very stubborn at this time of year against typically an atlantic which is at its yearly weakest.

Fairly unsettled then as we start April, outbreaks of rain, showers and sunny spells, with wintry precipitation for higher ground, frost a regular feature as well and temperatures coming in a bit below normal, locally a fair bit below.

 

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Posted (edited)

Well folk it's gonna be a horrid few days next week with low pressure literally slap bang over the middle of us. Also quite a bit of cold air in the circulation, so I would say some wintryness in the heavier bursts! Perhaps a surprise or two, one thing for sure is that compared to the last few days, it's gonna feel positively freezing. 

We start to pick up an NE/Etly beyond day 7, just noticing some very cold uppers to our NE... can we tap into this pool!! 

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Edited by Mattwolves
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3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

one thing for sure is that compared to the last few days, it's gonna feel positively freezing. 

Yes you're right, some of us reached 19c 66f today with beautiful unbroken sunshine and just a little wispy cirrus cloud..but next week the models show temps may struggle to reach 10c and half that in places, especially further north, add in the windchill factor when the NE'ly / E'ly arrives it will feel close to freezing!:shok:

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Posted (edited)

Quite a difference between the 12z and the 18z at similar time frames regarding the cold pool to our East! 

Yes Karl.... Its gonna actually feel like winter when it's actually spring... Lol 😉👍

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Edited by Mattwolves
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It looks like we maybe keeping with the cold theme through till mid month, and with an Estly feed setting up..... Who knows!! If we can just get some slightly colder uppers across the North Sea.... Then it's convection heaven perhaps!!! That's ya weather for now!! Enjoy the rest of ya evenings folks!, 👍😉

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Posted (edited)

Messy 18z further into low res, a very slack slow moving pattern with areas of high pressure and shallow troughs mixed in..just 1 run though, hopefully high pressure will return properly after next weeks unsettled spell..I must say that next week is the perfect recipe for heavy thundery and wintry showers to break out..some great cloud formation potential.

Edited by Frosty.
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Couldn't resist Karl..... 

Notice how Ireland is a complete whiteout!!! I'm booking my Irish sea boat has we speak!!!! 😜

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Posted (edited)

😯😮😲:cold:

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Edited by snowray
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Almost like clockwork to see decent looking wintry charts as we head further into spring🤔

One day it will happen in the winter months..... 

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Posted (edited)

Outlook - A slow transition from high pressure influence for most of this week to a more trough influenced scenario next week, thus generally colder and more unsettled,. For a quick overview see my post last evening.

The NH profile and Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0500 UK chart

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As can be seen a lot of mist and fog around over England and Wales this morning which will clear fairly quickly in most places giving another warm and sunny day, particularly in the south. Further north there is rain over Scotland, and showers in the far north, associated with the cold front as it tracks slowly south. But the front is weakening against the ridge so the rain will become patchy over southern Scotland and the north of England

During this evening and over night the front and patchy rain will continue the journey south over the Midlands and Wales so a not particularly cold night here but a widespread frost in the colder air behind the front by morning.

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With the weak front still loitering near the south coast it will remain much cloudier in south regions than of late through Sunday, perhaps the odd spot of rain/drizzle but for a change much better in the north, and including central areas, with sunny intervals, albeit a tad cooler than of late.

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No huge change overnight but by Monday the aforementioned transition is underway with an upper trough tracking east to Iceland, with the subtropical high pressure zones beginning to amplify, and by late afternoon the associated surface cold front is bringing cloud/rain and a strengthening wind to the north west

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Overnight Monday night the high pressure zones continue to amplify and the trough starts to track south east and the cold front does likewise with some snow over th Scottish mountains.

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The front will clear quickly into the North Sea Tuesday morning but by now the upper trough is over the UK and remains in situ through Tuesday and Wednesday and thus quite unsettled with a various mixture of wintry showers with hail and thunder in the mix with some snow on the higher ground in the north  There could well be some prolonged periods of rain if the showers coalesce  Much colder than of late with temps below average

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Edited by knocker
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To continue a while with the gfs. From this point onward the evolution appears to be quite complex as the energy flows are sorted but the general theme is to eventually promote high pressure over northern Scandinavia with low pressure over south west Europe with a conduit to the Canadian vortex,

Anyway by midday Friday the UK is still under the auspices of the upper trough so sunny intervals and showers with temps a tad below average. Over the weekend with energy pushing in from the west the ridge does start to relocate north east as the trough eventually migrates south leaving the UK to some extent in no mans land. Temps pretty near average but really the detail awaits to be sorted.

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Just to show how uncertain the detail in  the 5-10 period is the ecm clear the trough south by Friday as the ridge noses north east with a trialing front across western regions. Possibly some thundery activity? Temps a tad below average

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Thereafter it is still a case of promoting high pressure over norther Scandinavia with low over western Europe, complicated by renewed amplification of the subtropical high in the Atlantic. Best left for the time being I feel

 

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Posted (edited)

Looking at the 00z models for the week ahead it's all about april showers, many of them heavy with hail and thunder and cold enough for sleet and snow (especially hills) as temps will drop like a stone during showers but even in the sunny spells between temps will struggle to reach double digits celsius and overnight frosts can be expected.

Edited by Frosty.
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5 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Almost like clockwork to see decent looking wintry charts as we head further into spring🤔

One day it will happen in the winter months..... 

it won't, Atlantic and jet too strong, PV too aggressive, all that weakens in April

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9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

it won't, Atlantic and jet too strong, PV too aggressive, all that weakens in April

That's a rather sweeping statement, certainly doesn't describe the largely benign winter just gone..anyhoo, looking forward to the April showers, chilly cyclonic showery week to come.

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The medium term EPS mean anomaly pretty much as expected with the UK virtually in a col. Temps a tad below average and detail to be sorted later

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Looking at the 00z ens the 'colder' air won't last all that long by the end of next week it's back to around average

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