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Model discussion - March drawing to a close


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

FV3...Watch it and weep! image.thumb.png.45131e6165f9a3cd546611e53bdbba78.pngimage.thumb.png.1de3cbe47c62c5b4f29684fa91877370.png

If only it were February!

I'm pretty sure it was February......and January. In fact I'm pretty sure we've been seeing charts like that for ten days away through nearly all of the winter!

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Posted
  • Location: SE Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Any extremes
  • Location: SE Oxfordshire
2 hours ago, Azazel said:

Sounds good! Got a new wide-angle lens I want to try out so patiently waiting for our first convective outbreak. Finally purchased a shutter-release cable so determined to get my first legitimate lightning photograph this year too when summer arrives and we "hopefully" get some nocturnal storms.

I got a new w/a lens and lightning detector a couple of years ago. Haven't seen a single nocturnal storm since 

Here's hoping!

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
4 minutes ago, Bob G said:

I got a new w/a lens and lightning detector a couple of years ago. Haven't seen a single nocturnal storm since 

Here's hoping!

haha always the way!

 

I was in the middle of a field with the most incredible view of the July 2015 "Bournemouth Supercell" as it roared overhead. I had my camera set up on a tripod and everything. Unfortunately, due to it being dark by the time the storm arrived and being steaming drunk, I failed to operate my camera and didn't get any photos:( Was an experience i'll never forget though. The lightning frequency was insane.

Going back to next week, it'll just be nice to see some convective cloudscapes again and familiarise myself with my camera.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
52 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I'm pretty sure it was February......and January. In fact I'm pretty sure we've been seeing charts like that for ten days away through nearly all of the winter!

We don't have to wait for week 2 (another 10 days) to see colder weather!!..next week looks like becoming considerably colder than this week..indeed, this sunday looks a lot colder than saturday..I think there is a risk of snow next week although I admit it's more likely to be on higher ground but overnight frosts are highly likely where skies clear and winds fall light.

EDM1-120.GIF

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

An increasingly cold cyclonic look to next week, from tues according to the Ukmo 12h...as for this weekend, tomorrow still looks warm, dry and bright further south (southern / southeast england) becoming cloudier and cooler further north  but by sunday the temperatures are really knocked on the head, especially noticeable further south where it's currently warmest....much cooler on sunday nationwide with more cloud but still with some sunshine at times and mainly dry.

UW96-21.gif

UW120-21.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And things are still looking good for convection:

image.thumb.png.b2288100987157bbb1411a632e668d38.pngimage.thumb.png.27c77384d67b14790ff7571fa9ab627e.png

image.thumb.png.37711e2cd3e43e8456814d4d461516ae.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Gfs 12z operational the first week in April looks unsettled rather cool / cold and cyclonic trough(s) dominated but then look what happens..high pressure returns and it would be feeling very pleasant in the sunshine with low to mid teens celsius.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Et voila! On the 12Z, it's the warm air that wins out...Wasn't it the same with yesterday's?

image.thumb.png.9502231592b0be420d9852ab9465e176.pngimage.thumb.png.46095d37397e80e2b32a1b281bca796b.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Et voila! On the 12Z, it's the warm air that wins out...Wasn't it the same with yesterday's?

image.thumb.png.9502231592b0be420d9852ab9465e176.pngimage.thumb.png.46095d37397e80e2b32a1b281bca796b.png 

Yes I think it's a recurring theme Ed..I mean Pete, I don't mind a week of unsettled if high pressure then returns, really nice low res.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Et voila! On the 12Z, it's the warm air that wins out...Wasn't it the same with yesterday's?

image.thumb.png.9502231592b0be420d9852ab9465e176.pngimage.thumb.png.46095d37397e80e2b32a1b281bca796b.png 

for you aye, but me 7 degrees and sea haar

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

for you aye, but me 7 degrees and sea haar

Haha..sorry, couldn't resist

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes I think it's a recurring theme Ed..I mean Pete, I don't mind a week of unsettled if high pressure then returns, really nice low res.

This would be Convection Central: image.thumb.png.7938d3a368b73b74e70522203ebbe104.png⚡  

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

for you aye, but me 7 degrees and sea haar

Don't frett?:gathering:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Don't frett?:gathering:

Let's just wait and sea what happens

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

So looking at the 12z the cold spell seems to be played down a bit! We do get some colder weather next week and perhaps some wintry showers, but tbh my attention has turned to the signs of high pressure taking hold towards the end of the run... With plenty of sunshine temps I would think would respond quite good. Perhaps we are now beginning to see the first signs of warmer settled Conditions during the final 3rd of April! And tbh, after todays glorious Conditions here.. 18c and Wall to wall sun, it simply can't come quick enough! And just to show I'm not 100%cold charts and nothing else... Here goes.... Know cold charts!

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262245-Brace-Yourselves-Summer-Is-Coming.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There's quite a lot of support from the extended GEFS 12z for high pressure to return following an unsettled early april, the mean indicates an increasing blocking signal with pressure rising and a sluggish atlantic..as was the case with the 6z..there could possibly be an azores / scandi high link-up towards mid april.

21_312_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Definitely a developing trend, Karl & Matt, with any cold air being increasingly marginalised/confined:

image.thumb.png.bd3c5b4dcb7fbda8fcfc01842feca8a5.pngimage.thumb.png.8c163821e3e7e1a8d3c067314dc28e04.png 

Note that the OP is on the warm side of the ensemble, again:

image.thumb.png.7bf911528d9ff8be3811703c69a4ea80.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just one of the warmer more anticyclonic examples from the GEFS 12z

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9_342_2mtmpmax.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Yet another hum dinger if it was January chart from ECM

ECM1-168.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

But has you can gather, the cold pools are getting more scattered and less intense! 

Mehhh!!! 

ECM0-192.gif

ECM0-216.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

But has you can gather, the cold pools are getting more scattered and less intense! 

ECM0-192.gif

Aye but there hasn't been many cold pools in the last four months so I'll take it to keep my mates in the cold mafia (sacra) happy 

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Just now, Frosty. said:

Aye but there hasn't been many cold pools in the last four months so I'll take it 

The problem here Karl is the winds are veering back to the SE, and we are at the stage where we have a warming continent! We really needed these winds to veer N/NE, it's all running out of Puff, Canada sucked our cold pools dry!! They better not later this year..... My patience is running thin!!

ECM1-216.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

You just couldn't make it up!! The perfect winter synoptics from ECM, pressure rising over scandy and a bonyfied Estly! And after delivering us utter garbage all winter, it now delivers in April!! Credit to the met, they was banging on about cold blocking and Estlys all winter.... Well done boys, its finally coming off!

ECM1-240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Indeed, in winter that would be..from russia with love ..I'm sure something would scupper it though..as usual!

ECM1-240.GIF

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