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Model discussion - March drawing to a close


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

And just like by magic... All the cold uppers to our North vanish! Ya gonna like it..... Not a lot! 

gfs-1-336.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Not a bad ending from GFS, pleasently warm as well! 

gfs-0-384 (1).png

gfs-1-384 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Not a bad end to the 12Z at all: image.thumb.png.38df06e9321aef4973c64c6b2dc64a26.png image.thumb.png.9b30babe0eb4d53ea080d01d67ea4b6f.png

 

Has meteorological Brexit been put back a while?:yahoo::gathering:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I like it..and yes it's a silly timeframe but is also in line with exeter's longer range more settled and warmer signal!

12_360_mslp500.png

12_360_uk2mtmp.png

12_384_mslp500.png

12_384_mslp850.png

12_384_uk2mtmp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Para to the rescue...it's too early to panic -- just yet!:shok:

image.thumb.png.635b35c9d1503aa39ea8d0c43d62487f.pngimage.thumb.png.b44340b3c26935e013586a3dac21a2b2.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not a bad end to the 12Z at all: image.thumb.png.38df06e9321aef4973c64c6b2dc64a26.png image.thumb.png.9b30babe0eb4d53ea080d01d67ea4b6f.png

 

Has meteorological Brexit been put back a while?:yahoo::gathering:

blaady 'eck Ed, that chart on right looks vile! for this location will be 8 degrees and sea mist

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not a bad end to the 12Z at all: image.thumb.png.38df06e9321aef4973c64c6b2dc64a26.png image.thumb.png.9b30babe0eb4d53ea080d01d67ea4b6f.png

 

Has meteorological Brexit been put back a while?:yahoo::gathering:

Is this the third meaningful cold spell that has been rejected by the model output this year? By the time we get synoptics for a meaningful winter cold spell there will be no cold to tap into! Maybe we should cancel the search for cold now and go for warmth instead 

Seems like any cold next week is getting pushed further east and we are just being left in the middle. Interesting to see some early warmth in Spain, will that move North further into April? Or will it be kept away by the Atlantic? The latter parts of the 12z see some rather cold Atlantic air over us for a while before some residual warmth moves in from the south.

image.thumb.png.253baea7f89ab270ce5fcb1041c48178.png

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

GFSP also setting us up for high pressure building over us in the later runs, not to bad... Steady has she Goes.

gfs-0-324.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Is this the third meaningful cold spell that has been rejected by the model output this year? By the time me get synoptics for a meaningful cold spell during the winter there will be no cold to tap into! Maybe we should cancel the search for cold now and go for warmth instead 

Seems like any cold next week is getting pushed further east and we are just being left in the middle. Interesting to see some early warmth in Spain, will that move North further into April? Or will it be kept away by the Atlantic? The latter parts of the 12z see some rather cold Atlantic air over us for a while before some residual warmth moves in from the south.

image.thumb.png.253baea7f89ab270ce5fcb1041c48178.png

Pretty much so QS, it's also getting a little to late in the year now for anything significant! Perhaps things not being overly helped by the current high degree of warming over the Arctic! Let's just hope we have a more vast refreeze later this year, perhaps bring us a little more hope for next winter! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Amazing to see the Gfs 12z operational / parallel singing from the same hymn sheet, albeit beyond T+300 hours..impressive anticyclonic signal all the same!

GFSPARAEU12_336_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_360_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Amazing to see the Gfs 12z operational / parallel singing from the same hymn sheet, albeit beyond T+300 hours..impressive anticyclonic signal all the same!

Indeed Karl, could we be about to endure a 2018 repeat, when fine and warm weather started to devolop during April.. And then May!!! And we know what followed next!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Charts to die for..if it was winter!❄️P5❄️

5_336_850tmp.png

5_336_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Para @384: image.thumb.png.e4dc1c7349a902f793c586cda2f70363.png Op:image.thumb.png.0cb087d774e5549361d1e74caae2ab03.png 

At least they both suggest the northward migration of warmer air...Though the Op is a tad on the warmer side of the ensemble?

image.thumb.png.0961f3f57c8fd4215ee6f93b1a6b4ac2.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I personally am pretty much fed up of the snow chase now, but understand why those who live further north are still interested.   Having said that, the ECM T144 looks very interesting for a wide swathe of the country:

image.thumb.jpg.84c6a981dc3f9c981594d591fb21b402.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.4379533b579b1ac6428e252a0494f833.jpg

So we can't quite stop watching for cold yet...

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

These charts from the GEFS 12z show that an arctic blast could still really pack a punch even towards mid april!:aggressive:

15_336_850tmp.png

16_330_850tmp.png

16_336_2mtmpmax.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Has Mike just pointed out the ECM brings something for everyone, around midweek to the end of the week it's indeed cold enough for something wintry away from the North! Indications of it warming up again by the following weekend. 

120_thickuk.png

144_thickuk.png

168_thickuk.png

192_thickuk.png

216_thickuk.png

240_thickuk.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z turns into quite a wintry feeling unsettled run following a fine warm start and then an improving end..some surprise snow in places but more especially on high ground...so, the clocks go forward this weekend but we spring backwards into something more wintry next week from the north.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Indeed Karl, could we be about to endure a 2018 repeat, when fine and warm weather started to devolop during April.. And then May!!! And we know what followed next!!!

Indeed we do - misery!  Anyway, back O/T, I suspect that warm, anticylonic set-ups appearing in the models are more likely to occur in reality than cold set-ups in winter as such conditions are more commonplace - is this an accurate idea?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean pretty much looks like the operational, a fine warm start, becoming colder from the north on sunday with an increasing frost risk and then from around next tuesday onwards becoming colder and more unsettled / cyclonic with a chance of the ppn turning more wintry at times but mainly on higher ground and further overnight frosts where skies clear and winds fall light..not very spring-like at all as we go further into next week. 

EDM0-72.GIF

EDM1-120.GIF

EDM1-144.GIF

EDM0-144.GIF

EDM1-168.GIF

EDM1-192.GIF

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The models are looking preety good, for some wintryness, next week, and turning warmer later...In the meantime, someone's loosening her tonsils::yahoo:

 

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

This isn't the thread for climatology class, there's other threads for that.

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Still can't rule out this cold snowy possibility Tuesday into Wednesday, following ECM, here's ICON 18z at T120:

image.thumb.jpg.0c4011059dac050cefa44882d3dbacbb.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.5289e510ba98c06bfe553022415e5a80.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Still can't rule out this cold snowy possibility Tuesday into Wednesday, following ECM, here's ICON 18z at T120:

image.thumb.jpg.0c4011059dac050cefa44882d3dbacbb.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.5289e510ba98c06bfe553022415e5a80.jpg

Yes mike although the uppers (850's) don't look anything special (cold wise) on any model regarding next week, there are other factors like dew points / wet bulb etc and in a more strongly convective set-up there could be snow in the heavier showers as well as hail, sleet and thunder...or were you thinking more about frontal activity as the cold air digs in behind it from the NW?

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Nice scandi high on gfs, which will probably verify as it's too late to bring biter cold and snow now ,amazing how many times over the years we get decent winter sypnotics in the wrong season,

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Looking at the 00Z and FV3 at T+384 shows this:

00Z image.thumb.png.5e97689e3c8c459996509c952064b9c8.png FV3 image.thumb.png.8ccdc440e9299ca5ebbb0a2c0b66f700.png

So, clear indications (which, at this range, may not mean a lot) that some sort of easterly evolution might be expected...?

   image.thumb.png.eb5327f7056f990468a4b135601f6463.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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