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Model discussion - March drawing to a close


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Then winter returns..I'm not making it up, the 6z turns wintry later

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Quite a lot of run-run volatility in FI...for a change, Karl?

image.thumb.png.85ef9b1cf022cb91f4abdc87929e7595.pngimage.thumb.png.2af8b45d8383b0efe513db2a13d483a4.png 

And then, as if ordered from on high, the FV3 plays silly buggers - once again!

image.thumb.png.cee55781572efd34a02e09d7a19fe6e9.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Torquay Marina
  • Weather Preferences: Sun
  • Location: Torquay Marina

I'm not buying into any wintry weather for my location. The lowest daytime temperatures are 10C on Monday and Tuesday. Also looks like there will be plenty of sunshine and the sun is really packing a punch now. And its hard to compete with the sun!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Then winter returns..I'm not making it up, the 6z turns wintry later

Here's the proof❄️

06_348_preciptype.png

06_360_mslp850.png

06_360_ukthickness850.png

06_372_preciptype.png

06_384_ukthickness850.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Here's the proof❄️

06_348_preciptype.png

06_360_mslp850.png

06_360_ukthickness850.png

06_372_preciptype.png

06_384_ukthickness850.png

I misread your opener, there, Karl...For a second!

Could this be the Last Chance Saloon? image.thumb.png.1e3ab6a84489d0a567432a5117adbc0b.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Wouldn't bet on it Pete. GFS has been reasonably consistent with it on the last few runs or so, but ECM in another place altogether. 

ecmt850.192.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean there's still a chance of a cold shot from the north towards / during next midweek.

EDM1-144.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

GFS and the FV3 at it again I see! First the para then then it's older brother... Even bringing in a NEtly with some kick.... Amazing how they keep churning out this scenario in deep FI. Probably not worth getting to excited about.... 

gfs-0-210.png

gfs-1-222.png

gfs-1-360.png

gfs-0-360.png

06_348_preciptype.png

Fjc54zM_d.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the extended GEFS 6z mean there are signs that high pressure could return following a more changeable / unsettled period.

GFSAVGEU06_312_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_336_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
23 minutes ago, Paul said:

Wouldn't bet on it Pete. GFS has been reasonably consistent with it on the last few runs or so, but ECM in another place altogether. 

ecmt850.192.png

What I'm meaning is, that after the upcoming colder spell has passed, there won't be many opportunities left...as far as seeing any snow goes, anyway...?

image.thumb.png.c8155f89700f6276bc6c2242847f6035.pngimage.thumb.png.560cf4f3f62709c763786c1f161596ed.png 

image.thumb.png.0e00fce99d1bcd3abbd75fe6c25ef12a.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Pretty amazing really, we are towards mid April by the time this chart kicks in! And just look at the scenario it trys to put us in.... A NEtly feed with - 12 uppers literally on our doorstep! These charts weren't even being turned out in the middle of winter! Yet the the gfs and gfsp are bringing it, playing it down a bit the next day, then reinstating it the next day.... Its almost like a dog with a bone... It just won't give it up! 

gfs-1-384.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I hope my mates in the cold mafia (sacra) won't object to me posting this, there's actually quite a lot of support for another warm up on the GEFS 6z!

Tbh Karl I won't object if it's very cold or even hot charts your posting! Anything extreme floats my boat, I certainly won't begrudge the warm brigade a blistering spell of weather even though my real love of fridgid weather as failed to come off!! Whatever the weather chooses to bring I will just go with the flow.

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

As it stands, there's nothing particularly exciting showing when it comes to extremes in temperature. We're warmer than average for now, by a degree or two, then a touch colder than average for a bit then sitting around average through to mid-April based on the GEFS this morning. 

Next couple of days

gefsclim1.png

Start of April

gefsclim2.png

Into the second week of April

gefsclim3.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Some very decent charts here from the GEFS 6z

I agree with Matt, anything extreme, hot or cold is good in my book.:cold:

7_252_850tmp.png

7_252_2mtmpmax.png

16_348_850tmp.png

18_300_850tmp.png

18_300_2mtmpmax.png

19_270_850tmp.png

19_276_2mtmpmax.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the extended GEFS 6z mean there are signs that high pressure could return following a more changeable / unsettled period.

GFSAVGEU06_312_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_336_1.png

Although the second half of April is currently out of range of the models, the longer term signal from the experts, despite typical spring uncertainty sounds a bit more promising about a rather warm second half and predominantly settled weather, especially further south and the GEFS 6z mean in the extended range is laying the foundations for this!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I only hope the CFS seasonal model is gonna be as wrong has its Been all winter, this model still showing a much cooler/colder scenario has we enter may! With arctic incursions still making their presence felt.... Just for fun, but let's hope the pattern is wrong! 

cfs-2-810.png

cfs-2-846.png

cfs-2-888.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I tend to think whatever the CFS shows..the opposite will happen

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I tend to think whatever the CFS shows..the opposite will happen

I agree Karl, but all seasonal models are subject to much uncertainty, I mean look at what seasonal models from the Met was predicting during winter! I'm pretty sure one of the seasonal models, possibly JMA wasn't actually predicting a cold winter, not 100% sure on that though!

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Afternoon all

Once again, some interesting twists and turns as we move into April. The 06Z OP goes into classic retrogression with what would be a very chilly NE airflow as we approach mid month. The Parallel sets up a pattern where lobes of the trough are dropped through the British Isles to the south between heights to the NE and SW. Control also retrogresses the HP to the NW setting up a fairly benign ESE'ly flow.

ECM threw the proverbial cat among the metaphorical pigeons this morning with the trough not dropping fully to the east but moving back NW across the British Isles (plenty of rain you'd think) and ending up with a pattern slightly reminiscent of a west-based negative NAO but I simply don't see why the LP should pivot back NW.

There's plenty of spread in the 06Z GEFS but if I had to call a form horse at this time I'd suggest ridging of dome form to the west or north west but that's as far as I go.

The Parallel continues to weaken and warm the strat in advance of the OP but both now show the coldest of the air lifting north through Greenland and indeed Parallel sets up a new cold air to the north of Siberia indicative perhaps of the vortex destabilising as the final warming takes hold. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ukmo 12h shows colder air spreading south on sunday so an increasing frost risk and then between next tues / wed a cold plunge from the arctic with a chance of wintry showers and further frosty nights.

UW72-7.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW120-7.gif

UW144-7.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Colder, yes. But Old Mr GFS's latest offering isn't looking all that awe-inspiring come tomorrow week:

image.thumb.png.519458b0ff3b2e0a8653a5fe936a54ca.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z operational  shows more of a soft brexit type cold snap towards next midweek, I'm probably being very generous even calling it a cold snap..indeed it's later next week when there is an increasing chance of wintry ppn, quite a chilly unsettled cyclonic pattern develops as a trough sinks south and then we see height rises to the north / northeast which locks in a rather cold easterly flow.

12_195_preciptype.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

This would probably be causing some excitement if it would have been happening a couple of months ago! 

There we have an Easterly feed but the continent is divoid of that much colder air, at this stage its perhaps the N/NEtly we would require for a sting in the tail! 

gfs-0-204.png

gfs-0-240.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Could be a very decent convective spell in the offing:

image.thumb.png.9a27d122433eedbfabdce2a9133d1606.pngimage.thumb.png.c2c02cb693304f714c166ee993856c0c.pngimage.thumb.png.1c0c1a9f56e73533dc2b3cb1d600589e.png

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