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Model discussion - March drawing to a close


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
59 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Subtle differences between the FV3 and the GFS at 384: 

image.thumb.png.0215ac74751e82344326a9614cbf5120.pngimage.thumb.png.9d429071c8c1735df103c3e1fef5291f.png   

I'll have one on right ta! but 384 so just for fun anyway

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The fat lady might not be singing for much longer, looking at these snow charts from the GEFS 12z!

And I've decided that the Ecm 12z is more wintry at times compared to the 00z!

snow_144_ps_slp.png

snow_168_ps_slp.png

snow_192_ps_slp.png

snow_216_ps_slp.png

snow_240_ps_slp.png

snow_264_ps_slp.png

snow_288_ps_slp.png

snow_312_ps_slp.png

FemaleCooperativeKudu-small.gif.6800bc59f66300c0c6e200766af57a7e.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The fat lady might not be singing for much longer, looking at these snow charts from the GEFS 12z!And I've decided that the Ecm 12z is more wintry at times compared to the 00z!

Yes gorra agree Karl, 12z looks a bit more promising, by the way that singing lady giff kills me, so funny.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes gorra agree Karl, 12z looks a bit more promising, by the way that singing lady giff kills me, so funny.

Don't know much about Adele...But, this? image.png.37b514d7360ae092369eb608a5557212.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Without a doubt, some potential still there on the 12z ensembles. Look at the spikes for Norwich......even London, plus some of the runs still going into the cold category. 

gefsens850birmingham0.png

gefsens850london0.png

gefsens850norwich0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, it turns colder from the north during sunday (saturday across the northern half of scotland with a risk of snow) and it stays rather cold on monday, I would expect a few frosty nights. It then becomes more mobile from the west and there remains a chance of an enhanced but short-lived colder shot towards next midweek, especially across the far north where there again is a risk of snow for a time, the changeable but slightly flatter pattern then returns but by the end of the run we see a low swinging down from the NW which could introduce colder air in it's wake..interesting fluid pattern with cold potential at times, similar to the operational..I don't think we are finished with wintry weather just yet!❄️ 

EDM1-72.GIF

EDM0-96.GIF

EDM0-144.GIF

EDM1-144.GIF

EDM0-168.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

The 12z suite from the ecm and gfs only to T+144 is quite remarkable in the difference in that time frame. This is the time to bring some human intervention in ....Moto   Don't get hung up on computer models , 

h850t850eu-1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Here are the ECM eps, and a few snap shots of the NH profile from GFS, GFSP and ECM at 10 day's. 

graphe_ens3.png

ECH1-240.gif

gfsnh-0-240.png

gfsnh-0-240 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Quite typical fayre in the offing for the time of year - a time when the atlantic becomes sluggish and we begin to see the influence of anticyclonic spells and northerly and easterly flows come to the fore.

Tomorrow promises to be a good day in central and eastern parts, very pleasant with lots of sunshine and temps in mid- edging high teens in one or two spots. The far north will see more cloud and cooler weather. As we approach the weekend, a change from the NW, thanks to a cold front moving through the UK on Friday and into Saturday. Cool weekend on the cards, cold feeling in the north with some frost, and chance of wintry shower. 

Next week - generally cool, with a NW flow possibly an arctic shot on Tuesday - wintry showers for the north, and more frost - this theme continues through the week.

Longer term - tentative signs azores high ridging NE again to calm things down and warm things up again.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

So far so good on the 18z..tomorrow looks a very pleasant day pretty much across the board with sunny spells..think this will verify!

18_24_ukcloud.png

18_24_mslp500.png

18_24_ukthickness850.png

18_24_precipratec.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

ECM and GFS at 168! You must be joking! 

gfs-1-168.png

ECM0-168.gif

WelcomeTiredFlicker-size_restricted.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
5 minutes ago, Don said:

Nope

Hang on in there Don.... Look to the NW, its coming, its coming home.... Or is that the football!!!

gfs-1-198.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Why did I stay up for the 18z..searching for snow in april..I must be mad..I am actually:crazy:..next week actually looks pretty mild across southern uk.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Is it coming, or is she really getting ready to sing! Maybe some hope towards the end, with a renewed attempt of a Nthly, this is seriously headbanging stuff folks! 

gfs-0-240.png

gfs-1-348.png

gfs-0-348.png

gfs-1-360.png

giphy.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Finally..BOOM!!!

18_360_preciptype.png

18_372_ukthickness850.png

18_372_uk2mtmpmin.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Most of that 18z run i was doing this!!..then we scored with the last kick of the game❄️❄️

ezgif-com-crop-33.gif

18_360_preciptype.png

18_360_naptypemslp.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Yes Karl, yet again gfs sends something our way deep in fi, even  a NEtly at about day 14, let's just count this down with know drama!!.... If only. Maybe tomorrow will bring a bit more excitement.

gfs-0-384.png

giphy-1.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 00z operational really settles down again between early / mid April:oldgood:

00_372_uk2mtmp.png

00_372_mslp500.png

00_372_mslp850.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
10 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Hang on in there Don.... Look to the NW, its coming, its coming home.... Or is that the football!!!

gfs-1-198.png

Neither!

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

What's amazing about our weather since February is the lack of low pressure. We obviously had one low pressure spell for a couple of weeks this month, but beyond that it's been virtually high pressure all the way in one shape or form.

Based on this morning's ensembles at least, there's not a great deal of change overall either, although with the high pressure anomaly weakening a tad.

Up to the end of the month
1.png

Then into April
2.png3.png

4.png5.png

The ECM operational this morning is a bit more bullish in bringing low pressure into play, and shows the cool down in temperatures starting this weekend and sticking about through most of next week. 

Colder air headed south this weekend:
ecmt850.072.png

Then low pressure crossing north of Scotland, down into the North Sea and then not too far away on the continent during next week. 

ecm1.pngecm2.pngecm3.png

GFS on the other hand doesn't want to play that game and squeezes the low further away east, bringing high pressure back over the country. 

gfs-next-weds.png

Personally, for now, I'd probably bet on a GFS like scenario being the most likely with high pressure back sooner rather than later, after a brief less settled spell coming down from the northwest this weekend and early next week.

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Well, looking at the GEFS 00z there could still be an arctic plunge during early april but there could also be a very warm southerly..fascinating output!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Heat starting to build up in southern Europe?

 

image.thumb.png.af0a3cb64a34aaf20171fbae91548322.pngimage.thumb.png.e880b400d0723aa41d1d7888af655c34.png  

And now for the 06Z!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Well, looking at the Gfs 6z operational next week is predominantly settled with plenty of high pressure and mild temps, especially further south!

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