Model discussion - March drawing to a close

[I remember Atlantic 252]

depends on people's opinions of 'upgrade' to me an upgrade would be sunny, warm high pressure temps over 20 degrees, now we're in April, not vile 5 degrees and rain all day, like above charts show

[ICE COLD]

GFS 12z bringing it in from the East as well.

[shaky]

If you thought ukmo was bad for mild lovers dont take a look at the 12z gfs cos up to 168 hours it looks even more easterly and cold than the 06z!!!if ukmo undercut a bit better on the 144 hour chart it would have looked exactly the same!!

[ICE COLD]

T159 and the 850s are getting colder and more widespread

[ICE COLD]

Just now, shaky said:

If you thought ukmo was bad for mild lovers dont take a look at the 12z gfs cos up to 168 hours it looks even more easterly and cold than the 06z!!!if ukmo undercut a bit better on the 144 hour chart it would have looked exactly the same!!

Yes it is shaky -9 850s now widespread

[Frosty.]

Certainly the Gfs 12z operational is following the ukmo.. turning much colder next week with frosty nights and increasingly wintry / snow flurries..astonishing!! 

[Methuselah]

Looks like one of them thar kinks might affect the SE and EA...Snow showers possible?

[shaky]

I did say to feb1991 that this evenings runs could be very interesting for cold lovers and they most certainly are!!just need the ecm to complete it!!

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

depends on people's opinions of 'upgrade' to me an upgrade would be sunny, warm high pressure temps over 20 degrees, now we're in April, not vile 5 degrees and rain all day, like above charts show

No I want snow, I want heat as well but if there's a chance of snow and frost i want that!!..Looking forward to the parallel

[MATTWOLVES 3]

One problem folks before we all get overly excited.... Know mention of it whatsoever from exeter! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

No I want snow, I want heat as well but if there's a chance of snow and frost i want that!!..Looking forward to the parallel

You can't have it all at the same time Karl!

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

One problem folks before we all get overly excited.... Know mention of it whatsoever from exeter! 

They should take more notice of their own model

Edited April 4, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

From what I'm seeing so far from gfs, is basically - 8 uppers to the North, elsewhere more like - 4 to - 6c,and that holds firm till around day 10, even beyond! This set up would be a godsend 2-3 months ago, and I would be relishing it. But now it's gonna become a complete irritation! I've spent all day outside and we have had 5c and cold rain, completely horrid conditions. Give me proper cold and snow in winter, and warmth and settled Conditions in spring and summer, but this..... Yukkkk, the sooner its gone the better! 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

From what I'm seeing so far from gfs, is basically - 8 uppers to the North, elsewhere more like - 4 to - 6c,and that holds firm till around day 10, even beyond! This set up would be a godsend 2-3 months ago, and I would be relishing it. But now it's gonna become a complete irritation! I've spent all day outside and we have had 5c and cold rain, completely horrid conditions. Give me proper cold and snow in winter, and warmth and settled Conditions in spring and summer, but this..... Yukkkk, the sooner its gone the better! 

Certainly looking grim @ T+222  

[Frosty.]

High pressure for Easter on Gfs 12z op

Edited April 4, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Here it comes the azores ridge! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

In the shorter term have you noticed how the really cold uppers from the NE are being seriously mixed out has they cross the North Sea! Hence why I keep saying great in winter, but not so great in April, especially after a very mild winter! The North Sea would have been much colder if we had received the winter that many were predicting! 

Edited April 4, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Here it comes the azores ridge! 

Yes, that sums up what I'm expecting to see and about the time I'm expecting to see it.  Flip to warm mid-month.

Meanwhile, the GEM is strongly supportive of the cold outbreak towards the end of next week, T186:

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Here it comes the azores ridge! 

There goes the Azores ridge! 

Hopefully, only a wee temporary relaxation...?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, that sums up what I'm expecting to see and about the time I'm expecting to see it.  Flip to warm mid-month.

Meanwhile, the GEM is strongly supportive of the cold outbreak towards the end of next week, T186:

I hope your on the money Mike, this cold outbreak will still bring temps of +4 to +7, we would literally need to see - 12 uppers crossing to make for any meaningful snow to fall and hang around! I'm not to excited over the prospects of November type weather in mid April!

[Frosty.]

High pressure on Gfs 12z parallel too as we approach easter.

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I hope your on the money Mike, this cold outbreak will still bring temps of +4 to +7, we would literally need to see - 12 uppers crossing to make for any meaningful snow to fall and hang around! I'm not to excited over the prospects of November type weather in mid April!

Yes, but this isn't really now about personal preferences it is about the models showing rather unusual weather for the time of year. Which in itself is interesting. With the convective element in April that perhaps isn't there in the winter months, it is possible to get snow from more marginal conditions due to heavy precipitation and evaporative cooling hence the interest.  Sure it won't stick around, I agree there!

FV3 has similar cold encroaching from the east, T192:

[stodge]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Yes, but this isn't really now about personal preferences it is about the models showing rather unusual weather for the time of year. Which in itself is interesting. With the convective element in April that perhaps isn't there in the winter months, it is possible to get snow from more marginal conditions due to heavy precipitation and evaporative cooling hence the interest.  Sure it won't stick around, I agree there!

FV3 has similar cold encroaching from the east, T192:

Yes this isn't January and we can all go on about we wish it was but it's not.

However, for model watchers the synoptics are unusual though not unprecedented and temperatures well below normal (while not to everyone's taste) are as noteworthy as temperatures well above (which a lot of people enjoy a lot more).

Oddly enough, it may be the strength of the chill next week which undermines the E'ly in terms of longevity. As the HP squeezes down from the north and forces the airflow to a colder NE'ly it causes the mid Atlantic LP to stall and that in turn raises heights further east turning the flow to a much warmer SE'ly direction. Watch the GEM evolution for an example of that. To keep the E'ly going you need to keep the Atlantic LP flowing ESE into Europe.

[knocker]

This evening's gfs is very different to the 0600 from around t114 from whence it rapidly develops the tough over Scandinavia and then proceeds to phase it with the Atlantic trough(s) in the vicinity of the UK  This not particularly new development, and variation of the energy distribution, does advect colder air in from the north east It will be a major surprise if the ecm follows suit

 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

One problem folks before we all get overly excited.... Know mention of it whatsoever from exeter! 

Indeed, no interest from the Metoffice at the moment.