Model discussion - March drawing to a close

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Quite bizzare ensembles for what will be nearly mid April! Just look at the dip and the snow row activity for the midlands! But a fair few runs going above has we enter the final 3rd of the month! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Certainly some pockets of cold air in the vicinity come day 6/7..would it be cold enough for snow is the question!! And how many folk left on here who actually want it at this stage of the year! 

[Frosty.]

It's a real old ding dong battle between mild and cold which is usual for the time of year as we slowly transition towards summer..it's a shame that winter itself was so pathetic but at least some of us yesterday and today have seen snow, more than most got in dec, jan and feb combined!!!

Edited April 4, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

Could be good...depends upon just where the WAA goes, though:

 

But that would do nicely!

[stodge]

As others have said, some very cold (for the time of year) options in the 06Z GEFS and Control, in particular, would have -8 850s widely over the British Isles. It's interesting to watch the cold pool develop over southern Norway and head WSW in the flow. Obviously a source of instability so we could see some heavy showers with hail and thunder and obviously snow to higher (and perhaps at times) lower ground.

Once again, the trend (as on the 00Z) is to cut the easterly off at the end of next week as pressure rises from the SW and sends the jet back north but interesting to see both Control and Parallel suggesting any warmth could be short-lived. IF the Azores HP remains to the west it would allow the trough to sink SE into Europe and we might be returned to a cold NNE'ly (parallel). The other route (less likely) is if the Azores HP stays too far west and ridges north toward Greenland. OP brings the Azores HP in much closer and keeps the Icelandic LP well to the north and east so while we might see a WNW'ly it wouldn't be anything of note.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Please Karl. I'm begging you.

Yes Azazel Karl is a top notch poster, but he ain't a miracle worker!  but like I said he will be one of the first to post with any warmer weather, and there are some tentative signs of warmer conditions later in the month.

[Frosty.]

23 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes Azazel Karl is a top notch poster, but he ain't a miracle worker!  but like I said he will be one of the first to post with any warmer weather, and there are some tentative signs of warmer conditions later in the month.

I wouldn't say I'm top notch but I'm very flattered to be considered as such...thanks mate

Anyway, the duality of spring is there for all to see in the ensembles.

Edited April 4, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Here is one for the warm brigade, we pull in a more SWtly with temps in the sun nudging 20c...must admit I'm not liking how deep that low is to the NW though. 

[Frosty.]

There's certainly a risk of snow next week on the GEFS 6z postage stamps but nothing wintry as such from Exeter although with an Easterly likely, eastern areas would be feeling cold as the north sea is currently at its coldest..around 7 / 8c at this time of year. 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z parallel is going for a cold christmas...I mean easter with an arctic shot.

Edited April 4, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

But, dear oh dear oh dear -- WAA is not much good when it's in mid-Atlantic! But at least the northerly blast would be quite convective...

   Holy sheet! 

[Godber 1]

2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Certainly some pockets of cold air in the vicinity come day 6/7..would it be cold enough for snow is the question!! And how many folk left on here who actually want it at this stage of the year! 

snow anytime of the year is awesome!!!

[knocker]

This evening and overnight the upper trough will slowly slip west and under it's umbrella a number of low centres will appear by 0600 tomorrow.

The low currently centered over south west Wales

and the showery activity swirling around it effecting the south west quadrant of the country will drift north west through this evening and overnight with the showers becoming a tad less intensive. But the wave down to the south west at the moment will track north east and bring more continuous and quite heavy rain to Cornwall and Devon by 2200 and then on to effect south west Wales through the night. It will also briefly introduce some strong winds along south west coasts, Apart from the far NE tip of Scotland and the Orkney's the rest of the country should be relatively clear with broken cloud and frost free.

Edited April 4, 2019 by knocker

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Here is the icon take on things at day 7.

Knocking on the door come the end of the run! Perhaps a wee battle! 

Edited April 4, 2019 by Mattwolves

[stodge]

UKMO bringing in the colder blast for next midweek:

Like many Easterlies at this time of year there's an initial warming phase as air from further south is picked up in the flow having moved round the trough. After that, the colder air from points further east comes into the flow so you get a much colder segment.

Those who recall the B from the E last year - the really colder air came in two or three days after the initial set-up and that's how easterly patterns behave. In the same way, easterlies are often initially cloudy as warmer, humid air is the start of the flow before colder, drier, clearer air spreads in.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, stodge said:

UKMO bringing in the colder blast for next midweek:

This is the morning run though! It may be different on the 12 run! 

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

This is the morning run though! It may be different on the 12 run! 

It's still going for it

[Methuselah]

Sunday's not looking three bad...I'm hoping that the warmer-than-average North Sea will lessen the formation of haar, somewhat?

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

It's still going for it

Don't think the 850s have been updated yet Karl? 

[Frosty.]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Sunday's not looking three bad...I'm hoping that the warmer-than-average North Sea will lessen the formation of haar, somewhat?

 

I wouldn't fret about it Ed

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Sunday's not looking three bad...I'm hoping that the warmer-than-average North Sea will lessen the formation of haar, somewhat? 

Haar!!!! Is that slang for rabbit Pete? I think it's looking rather bleak and chilly along that East Coast this weekend! 

[stodge]

19 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

This is the morning run though! It may be different on the 12 run! 

Apologies, Matt. For some reason I assumed the UKM 12Z updated at 4.30pm and it had updated. Here's the 500HPA chart for T+144:

ENE'ly flow from Scandinavia so probably pretty chilly. Confirmed by the 850s:

Edited April 4, 2019 by stodge

[MATTWOLVES 3]

UKMO still bringing the cold! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, stodge said:

Apologies, Matt. For some reason I assumed the UKM 12Z updated at 4.30pm and it had updated. Here's the 500HPA chart for T+144:

Cheers stodge, you just beat me to it!

[Frosty.]

Nice upgrade

Edited April 4, 2019 by Frosty.