Model discussion - March drawing to a close

[Methuselah]

A potential build-up of heat, or what?

[Mike Poole]

CFS update for May, as usual no point looking at a single run, here's the last 8 Z500 anomalies:

Mixed bag, only 2 would suggest slight concern, rest maybe suggest an uncertain but significant transition to settled warm weather.  Not the strongest of signal on this model however.

Edited April 3, 2019 by Mike Poole

[snowray]

37 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

^      Maybe unusual was a poor word, unseasonal better perhaps?  But bear in mind that this cold April spell (if it actually happens) is still a relatively  unlikely event, perhaps depends on location once we get further from winter itself.  

ECM T168:

 

Yes indeedy, location, location, location. Some snow for Wales tonight and then it look likely that the northern half of the UK will continue to be in the firing line for further snowfall. Mainly over the hills admittedly and staying cold for early April. I think FI right now is after D5, oh what a surprise!

[snowray]

12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

A potential build-up of heat, or what?

Long way off but that would be nice to get some warmth in, so maybe it's bye bye white Easter, hello Easter heatwave!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

Long way off but that would be nice to get some warmth in, so maybe it's bye bye white Easter, hello Easter heatwave!

SW winds though I find so rare in April and May

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, snowray said:

Long way off but that would be nice to get some warmth in, so maybe it's bye bye white Easter, hello Easter heatwave!

Here's where I think we will be for Friday Easter holiday:

Watch the signal grow in coming runs.....

[Frosty.]

I'm seeing tentative signs today that we could see the azores high ridging our way for Easter week..hope this GEFS signal strengthens!

Mike beat me to it by seconds

Edited April 3, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Here's where I think we will be for Friday Easter holiday:

Watch the signal grow in coming runs.....

Wow, that's a brave call Mike.... Bank Holiday weekends are so very often unsettled!! I would wager a large bet on heat and settled Conditions both sides of the holidays!! But on it??

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is still going strong for a prolonged easterly with colder air heading our way, it looks very similar to the 00z mean and more in line with the Ukmo 12..it's not a beast but it's not a cuddly kitten either.

Edited April 3, 2019 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Wow, that's a brave call Mike.... Bank Holiday weekends are so very often unsettled!! I would wager a large bet on heat and settled Conditions both sides of the holidays!! But on it??

No. The start of it. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Any guests looking in on this forum right now, must be scratching there heads big time..... Woowww, we have heatwave conditions and fidgid NEtlys coming for Easter!! I'm even confused myself!

[Mike Poole]

46 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Any guests looking in on this forum right now, must be scratching there heads big time..... Woowww, we have heatwave conditions and fidgid NEtlys coming for Easter!! I'm even confused myself!

Can we clarify, please, that the possible easterly scenario is up to weekend 13 April, Easter is from Saturday 20 April?  I think the two will be quite different, with the latter weekend following long range model guidance towards warm and settled weather.

Edited April 3, 2019 by Mike Poole

[ANYWEATHER]

18 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Any guests looking in on this forum right now, must be scratching there heads big time..... Woowww, we have heatwave conditions and fidgid NEtlys coming for Easter!! I'm even confused myself!

To be honest the overall theme is for extensive northern blocking, it's already in operation,  yes kinks in the model output as models do not model this scenario well but believe me April has not shown the worst of Wintry weather......

[damianslaw]

41 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm seeing tentative signs today that we could see the azores high ridging our way for Easter week..hope this GEFS signal strengthens!

Mike beat me to it by seconds

Good job easter is late this year, a rather uninspiring outlook for the forseeable, a warm up end of the week, but nothing special for April and the easterly breeze will temper things, also lots of cloud.

Into next week, signs colder air will nudge in from the east as we see more of a direct ENE flow as opposed to SE flow, the N Sea is remember at its coldest at this time of year, and the air will be sourced from NW Russia never warm in April. 

Longer term a battle of sorts likely, depending on how far heights migrate towards Greenland and eventually position themselves, a trough will languish to the SW and we may again pull in a warmer continental SE feed, with low heights sinking south in situ towards Bay of Biscay allowing heights to ridge through over the top - but this won't happen if heights orientate on a more SW-NE trajectory over Greenland, instead the SE flow will quickly be exchanged for an arctic NE flow.

Either way, it does look like the atlantic will be in its typical seasonal slumber, with no westerlies on the horizon, winds predominantly from a position between north and south east. Its a pattern conducive to something eventually warm dry and continental, but also one which could see the warm exchanged for a cold dry continental theme either NE/E flow.

[knocker]

Over the last three days the ext EPS has shown a not bad consistency.

The main vortex lobe northern Russia with the ridge/positive anomalies migrating west to to the Greenland/northern Canada area This results in a very slack gradient over the central and NW Atlantic with a relatively strong upper westerly flow under this which does effect the southern half of the UK as it backs a tad en route to the peripheral circulation of the aforementioned vortex. The detail will await to be sorted by probably tending to a reverse N/S split with the more unsettled for the latter with temps a tad below average

..

This evening's NOAA is certainly not identical although in the same playing field so still a work in progress

Edited April 3, 2019 by knocker

[MATTWOLVES 3]

44 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Can we clarify, please, that the possible easterly scenario is up to weekend 13 April, Easter is from Saturday 20 April?  I think the two will be quite different, with the latter weekend following long range model guidance towards warm and settled weather.

Yes I know, it was a tongue in cheek response to the cold and warm air battle going on... One model bringing in the cold, another warming it up, and so on, and so on! And tbh it's pretty pointless even trying to make a forecast beyond mid month! 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes I know, it was a tongue in cheek response to the cold and warm air battle going on... One model bringing in the cold, another warming it up, and so on, and so on! And tbh it's pretty pointless even trying to make a forecast beyond mid month! 

Oh I don't know about that Matt, GloSea5, CFS and considerations of the GWO all suggest a tendency to a more settled warm last third of April....we will see! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Oh I don't know about that Matt, GloSea5, CFS and considerations of the GWO all suggest a tendency to a more settled warm last third of April....we will see! 

I dont dispute the seasonal models bringing a settled final 3rd to April Mike, but I would dispute what they are thinking for the entire summer. Has you will be aware, the U.k climate is far to complex to pin down at range, obviously you have your ideas, and I respect em Mike, after all your a very shrewd poster, one of me favourites to be fair.... So I will be taking note and following your summer predictions with interest! A few posters on here have mentioned the possibility of colder air winning out through April, Anyweather being one of them, and Damienslaw also giving some very insightful ideas of it..... I think i'm gonna sit on the fence a little longer Mike.

[Frosty.]

I think the current form horse is for it to become colder again next week with E'ly / NE'ly winds but probably largely fine compared to this week and there's a milder blip with SE'ly winds to come on Fri into the weekend before winds become easterly again and a lot of North sea filth for a time so i believe the ukmo 12z is on the right track..probably all go wrong now I've said that!!

Edited April 3, 2019 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

ICON 18z only goes to T120 unfortunately:

It would need pinpoint accuracy for a significant cold incursion now, and yes it might happen, but I'm looking forward to some warmth....

Edited April 3, 2019 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM 12z ensemble mean is a stonker.

[snowray]

Looks more like mid January than mid April on the 18z.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, snowray said:

Looks more like mid January than mid April on the 18z.

Certainly is for Scotland, in fact that is about a 5c -ve 850mb anomaly for January! - won't quite translate to the equivalent Jan surface temps of course but still coat weather.

Edited April 3, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[snowray]

26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Certainly is for Scotland, in fact that is about a 5c -ve 850mb anomaly for January! - won't quite translate to the equivalent Jan surface temps of course but still coat weather.

How about this then from the controle? 

Edited April 3, 2019 by snowray

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, snowray said:

How about this then from the controle? 

 

Ripper!  -  just need some serious quantity of members on both suites to show it.