Model discussion - March drawing to a close

[Frosty.]

That Gfs 00z operational easterly makes me want to cry, snowzilla in winter..naff all in april!

[johnholmes]

A look ahead with the anomaly charts?

Tue 2 april

Ec-gfs  and both show ridge/high similar position etc  with trough cut off centre s although somewhat  different pattern ec extends it over uk with gfs a centre w of uk

Noaa has upper high with +ve height centred a bit nw of actual contour centre off w norway with quite sharp trough just off sw uk, little contour flow over uk.

So all 3 have this idea, I suppose a surface flow from an e’ly point but only slight would be the outcome, possibly complicated by the trough set up, which might give a stronger surface flow from an easterly point.

Just what the surface weather is going to be 6-10 days ahead is hard to predict but probably below average temperatures, especially in the east, some showery outbreaks at first but becoming mostly dry and perhaps overall warming up a bit. Very tentative though.

The noaa 8-14 follows the 6-10 pretty closely.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

[Frosty.]

These charts from the GEFS 00z gives us a warm handover into almost summer like conditions!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

What a change today, thoroughly dank cold and miserable... Not likey!!! A band of rain which is weakening clearing SE, with lots of showers packing into the NW, some heavy and increasingly wintry. Probably drier south of the shower band. 

[Azazel]

44 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

These charts from the GEFS 00z gives us a warm handover into almost summer like conditions!

Shades of last year. Let it be so!

[mb018538]

9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

What a change today, thoroughly dank cold and miserable... Not likey!!! A band of rain which is weakening clearing SE, with lots of showers packing into the NW, some heavy and increasingly wintry. Probably drier south of the shower band. 

Exactly, why anyone would want to still be wanting this in April baffles me. It's miserable. I can put up with it from November towards the end of March, but now it's just yucky. Luckily the air coming in with the easterly isn't especially cold, so we should still see temperatures in the low teens.

[Methuselah]

06Z says the weekend will now be a wee bit less dreich than previously feared: 

 

[SLEETY]

 

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

That Gfs 00z operational easterly makes me want to cry, snowzilla in winter..naff all in april!

if the ecm and gfs were pumping these charts out in january this place would be in meltdown,but hardly ever happens , nearly always  perfect charts if you like cold and snow arrive in the wrong season,when  it’s too late for-decent snow on  low ground ,seen it countless times over the years.

Just cannot get HLB hardly ever in the winter months,

 

 

[ICE COLD]

It’s so annoying we get dream charts in April . This place would be buzzing if it was Dec , Jan or Feb . We could still get some cold from the north or north east a bit further down the line . 

[Methuselah]

More high pressure to end the run...but I do wish it could be a warm one. Och well, that's Spring!

  

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Exactly, why anyone would want to still be wanting this in April baffles me. It's miserable. I can put up with it from November towards the end of March, but now it's just yucky. Luckily the air coming in with the easterly isn't especially cold, so we should still see temperatures in the low teens.

Best not to expect too much from temperatures with any wind from an easterly point for many places east of high ground.

[Frosty.]

Oh my..what a mean, reminds me of January 1987

[Methuselah]

Strewth!      

Anywho, as the old weather lore says: When Spring doth bring us grime and grot, summer will be boiling hot!

Well it worked in 1975, 1983 and 2013...?

I'll vote for the control run: 

Edited April 2, 2019 by Ed Stone

[stodge]

Afternoon all

As others have said, the Easterly looks set for next week after an unsettled, chilly and showery spell to end the current week.

ECM teases an ENE'ly with a strong east-based NAO and as ideal a Greenland HP set up as you could ever want.

Other models aren't wholly convinced in FI - GFS 06Z OP maintains the E'ly flow for most of FI and we have the unusual synoptic of an area of LP moving east to west across Scotland and indeed the medium term synoptics are reminiscent of the synoptics of the B from the E last March.

06Z Parallel shifts the E'ly to a NNE'ly at the very end of FI and it's how the models profile the LP in mid-Atlantic that provides the clues. IF we get a deep cut off LP over or near the Azores, we might well see a warm SE'ly set up but if the LP is shallower and extends into western Europe as a trough, it's more of an E'ly flow as the heights remain to the north.

Control goes its own way and brings back the Atlantic and it's fair to say the GEFS diverge widely as you'd expect in the medium term though the northern blocking scenario remains the majority call on this output at this time. GEM keeps the Atlantic LP further north so the E'ly soon collapses.

As for the strat and the PV, not too many surprises for April. The OP develops a weak warming from the Eurasian side in far FI which would suggest perhaps a return to a more Atlantic-based regime later in the month. It's also worth that both OP and Parallel, having chased the coldest air out of Greenland by T+240 show a return of -24 uppers at the very end of FI which again would suggest a weakening of the Greenland HP and a return to a more traditional pattern but this is a very long way off.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I literally dropped me shopping basket in sainsburys when I viewed this chart just!! The tease is still on....

[Azazel]

You guys are making me miserable:*( - I think i'm gonna step away from the model thread for a week or so.

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Azazel said:

You guys are making me miserable:*( 

Blame the models, nothing to do with me 

Edited April 2, 2019 by Frosty.

[coldie]

3 hours ago, Azazel said:

Shades of last year. Let it be so!

Lets hope it fails to verify for the time being, just had a snow shower here that came down quite heavy for a time, was beautiful to see I thought i was dreaming for a second. More of the same until the end of April please.

Edited April 2, 2019 by coldie

[MATTWOLVES 3]

24 minutes ago, Azazel said:

You guys are making me miserable:*( - I think i'm gonna step away from the model thread for a week or so.

Trust me Azazel if the models are showing warm sunny  conditions, us lot will be the first to advertise it. Chin up son, we have a long summer ahead. 

[knocker]

A few showers anyone

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z there are signs of pleasant spring temperatures returning further ahead but there remains a chance of an arctic outbreak lurking in the woodshed too.

[Methuselah]

Aye Karl, and I'm getting more excited about potential convection than I am about snow...There have been a few hints toward a thundery plume, in the longer range. Though not a lot, it has to be said!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

40 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye Karl, and I'm getting more excited about potential convection than I am about snow...There have been a few hints toward a thundery plume, in the longer range. Though not a lot, it has to be said!

The GFSP ain't gonna be bringing a thundery plume pete, more like a narnia situation!

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The GFSP ain't gonna be bringing a thundery plume pete, more like a narnia situation!

Indeed, the parallel has restored my faith in it's cold bias.. I was starting to have my doubts!

[knocker]

A fairly complicated scenario as we go through this evening and overnight  The cold front will finally clear the south east by late this afternoon but at the same time a wave is forming on it just east of north east Scotland. So while the frequent and heavy showers that have been a feature of today tend to die out over the rest of the country, apart from western regions, more persistent precipitation will encroach the north east of Scotland and spread down all of the eastern region, and by morning much of the west as well. This  precipitation will be heavy at times and will a mixture of rain. sleet and snow with the latter down to quite low levels. It will also be accompanied by quite strong winds.

With a calm and clear night there will be a widespread frost in central and southern areas of England more persistent showery rain will effect Wales and the south west through the early hours as the old low and occlusion drift down the western coast.

Edited April 2, 2019 by knocker