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Model discussion - March drawing to a close


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Well folks many on here spent all winter searching for either heights to build over Greenland, or heights to build over scandy.... Well folks you now have 2 for the price of 1. I dont need to remind you, had these charts showed up 3 months ago... We would now be staring down the barrel of the winter many on here, including the experts predicted for us!! Perhaps later this year, these fascinating charts will manifest themselves much earlier!

ECM1-216.gif

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

According to this evening's ecm the transition to a more easterly regime gets underway at t96 with the upper trough slipping to the south west of the UK as the subtropical high ridges north east around the top Over the next 48 hours the high cell to the north east consolidates as the energy from Canada reconnects to low pressure in southern Europe and the UK is in a dry easterly, although some showery weather may sneak up from the south. Temps around normal, perhaps a tad above

t96.thumb.png.75c7284e19e1ea5e4c2d27afe68d3288.pngt144.thumb.png.2df760e201b0adeda02cddef49cec381.png

This more or less remains the scenario over the next 48 hours but showery activity may increase, particularly by t192 as the wind veers more south easterly

t168.thumb.png.9bf703bc51a69a629c59547cdde73d09.pngt192.thumb.png.0d18e71ebcc2ec2bf3f8d406af8ebf5b.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Been saying this a lot but I'll say it again, this Ukmo 12h @ T+144 would be great if it was winter but I'm glad that we have summer to look forward to soon and then start with a clean slate come Nov / Dec!!

UW144-21.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

GFS keeps flirting with the idea of Greenland heights and a potential polar outbreak towards mid month. Some quite decent cold shown to our N on a few runs.

image.thumb.png.7728a33b99aa8cb87c9025b4e65db5f0.png

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There's still a strong signal for increasing blocking with scandi heights next week from the GEFS 12z mean with high pressure slowly extending westwards to the north of the uk..so, gradually becoming drier beyond this week, still chilly towards and especially on the east coast but milder the further west and south you go.

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21_252_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

 

The easterly option looks strong on the ECM 12z mean, but at this time of year, with a probable southerly component, it starts to look warm rather than cold, here T240:

image.thumb.jpg.25b104d705ec2cc17087b50f8199193b.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.7651b38c1d8d202ee807a0db22d8b0a0.jpg

But with pressure likely to remain reasonably high, I think pleasant spring weather likely the result. 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Significant change on the cards, synoptics we haven't seen for quite some time (devoid of these since November) - an eventual long drawn easterly and signs of retrogression of heights towards Greenland. In the short term - a cold trough scenario, wintry precipitation higher ground in the north, sleet lower down, cold rain further south or showery outbreaks - preety unpleasant three days ahead with temps a fair bit below average. By the end of the week we pull in an easterly flow, cloudy and cool for all further chance of rain/showers.

Into next week GFS keen to migrate heights towards Greenland pulling in a cold arctic outbreak, ECM less keen but does show retrogression of sorts, but heights further south and possibly sinking through the UK allowing an eventual warmer feed of air.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening All , Classic Winter Synoptics  albeit very late, yes still can deliver snow , and will do, My thoughts for my Local magazine, were for much colder conditions have been founded , Computer models will struggle with detail, but This April will make news headlines for its cold...

bill.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ext EPS mean this evening continues to intensify the trop vortex over northern Russia but loses the ridge to thenorth east as the positive anomalies migrate west over Greenland Still a weak negatively tilted trough over north east North america all of which results in a very slack pattern in the north west Atlantic with the relatively light westerly upper flow tracking to the south. The det runs as usual will need to sort the detail but for a variation on a theme perhaps more unsettled to the south with a temps near normal

9-14.thumb.png.867bac0f129d53e82ce057847b62de04.png

Some differences with NOAA, vis the trough for starters, so this will need sorting, but one feels the movement is in the same direction

814day_03.thumb.gif.f4260477d93e961a7abb14a4b0c4459c.gif

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ICON 18z take on the unseasonal cold snap, T36:

image.thumb.jpg.46b125626b3fa7a78fb34c69e1fd01e4.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.1a9c8c23a970d632854c70529d748c7a.jpg

Depending on where the precipitation falls,there's the potential for snow in most areas, but much more likely over higher ground to he north of course.  

ARPEGE 12z has this for cumulative snow fall (not all will settle) to T48 and it is confined further north than the HIRLAM chart I posted earlier.

image.thumb.jpg.e5525afb5c451502d217acebcf56ffeb.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

18z certainly worth the wait folks... Just look at this bad boy waiting to pounce, looks more akin to January! 

gfs-0-324.png

gfs-1-324.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Oh dear here we go again......Noooo not in mid April!

gfs-0-336.png

gfs-1-348.png

Edit, you beat me to it MW.

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Yawn. Too late. Wouldn’t mind a warm easterly though. They can be convective from April onwards...

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
10 minutes ago, snowray said:

Oh dear here we go again......Noooo not in mid April!Edit, you beat me to it MW.

I think we posted at the same time snowray not sure if the GFSP is going the same route though, looks completely different to the 12z run. 

GFSp bringing us much warmer conditions towards the end of the run! 

gfs-1-300.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I think we posted at the same time snowray not sure if the GFSP is going the same route though, looks completely different to the 12z run. 

GFSp bringing us much warmer conditions towards the end of the run! 

gfs-1-300.png

Yup sure did.

But the 12z para looked very similar though...

gfs-0-336.thumb.png.8c2ef2b3636fe24d49ac593d478cb1bd.pnggfs-1-324.thumb.png.9c6a0f0b4a9657f4d024c247b1f00ea0.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
23 minutes ago, snowray said:

Oh dear here we go again......Noooo not in mid April!

gfs-0-336.png

gfs-1-348.png

Edit, you beat me to it MW.

GFS has been toying with it for a few runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GFS has been toying with it for a few runs.

The ever popular White Easter about to make a comeback this year?

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

Beautiful winter synoptics on offer in the not too distant land of FI, and 100% likely to come off now that we are all looking forward to warmer weather.

It's hilarious if you think about it

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Posted
  • Location: Ashford Kent
  • Weather Preferences: 1. Clear skies 2. Cold 3. Snow 4. Hot
  • Location: Ashford Kent

There has to be some left of April fools reading this thread, I booked to go camping in 10 days time!   Looks like that may have been an error! 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I imagine most are familiar with the outlook so by way of a change a quick look at a very good example of a low level jet as the storm tracking up the eastern seaboard into NE Canada this week undergoes rapid cyclogenesis.

gfs_uv500_noram_13.thumb.png.9db876b13a89e46c996feab8c4990cce.png

Meanwhile back on the farm the NH 500mb profile and the Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0500 UK chart

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.540070da92df2042c4384c3eb984d722.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.2c58f3f4d30c14aca4632545352b56c2.gif05.thumb.gif.92b48149f3e312c9cca61fbd23334075.gif

As can be seen the band of frontal rain is orientated SE Scotland to Cornwall at the moment with a fair amount of mist/fog to the south east of it. The rain band will continue to track ESE clearing most places by late morning with the far south east being the exception. But in the colder air behind the front(s) frequent squally wintry showers will develop and effect virtually everywhere but in particular NW and W regions and could be a mix of hail, thunder and snow down to relatively low levels.

1881765870_maxt.thumb.png.935fcc099a4028b6392ffb7e9a794b04.pngp09.thumb.png.ca9392c4f16d4e81ab2860d1e55acf07.pngp16.thumb.png.f141fbb2eb6e1d16411f075a63811b0e.png

The showers will tend to retreat to western regions during the evening but complications are afoot because a wave has developed on the cold fromt east of Scotland and this will bring more concentrated showery activity to the north east coast and it will also become quite windy by Wednesday morning. And also shower activity will increase for a time down the west coast courtesy of an old occlusion associated with the original low, Elsewhere a fairly widespread frost

PPVE89.thumb.gif.78314233f234e778e1bca07676e9ef57.gifp00.thumb.png.52996686ff8a1a0d18af0da8f1c39962.pngp06.thumb.png.ea1fda52bf88b23cfdee2891e3a4fc8d.png

The wave develops and moves west across Scotland on Wednesday so frequent heavy showers here of rain, hail, snow and thunder accompanied by strong winds Elsewhere scattered showers and another cold day.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.4cdc3dd46dd77d57eb8fed463eef1f8c.gifr10.thumb.png.43e94bf85f4e87826a15b3d549c610b3.pngr13.thumb.png.c78c3a2be3800155970104e8a6b28098.pngr16.thumb.png.bde4495998c31188bba7222cd3bf0c64.pngr18.thumb.png.7861e0f1570fa38c9b4c4ec007dc669e.png165213336_maxw.thumb.png.69da84b78a5ee115a10f1f263444da2a.png

Oversight and through Thursday the complex arrangement of the wave and fronts will tend to confine the showers to the north and west with plenty of sunshine elsewhere, albeit another quite chilly day.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.da2378fc96bf0775c8c8dbf72003a249.gifPPVJ89.thumb.gif.f777f806bfba18f13da6ed24cb912437.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.090d0fadb17edcf89c504da297298490.png

Overnight Thursday the upper trough is starting to slide south west as the subtropical ridges north/north east where the high cell is developing

gfs_z500_vort_natl_13.thumb.png.275e5a10396bac3656ecdc9028411baa.pngPPVK89.thumb.gif.aebc296bb5578668ac22f406e4235c57.gif

Over Friday and Saturday it's all a tad messy with low pressure tending to the SW/S and high to the N/NE with bits of bobs of surface fronts bringing rain to the south west and north east at times. But generally not too bad with sunny intervals and temps nearer the average.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_19.thumb.png.fd9c102c6ccd00a3e70cacf46322012b.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.3096bb2e3b1a7a3d2643ec6e6f915437.gifPPVO89.thumb.gif.3c041d8099fedb8e9947d3995b2bdfb5.gif

gfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.5fbf63b89154667d420acfa992a22317.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.9ce9903924d63a1f9e8c1f9b707447e8.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
7 hours ago, snowray said:

The ever popular White Easter about to make a comeback this year?

Looking at the Gfs 00z operational it could..frosty nights too.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I don't really want to venture too far ahead with the gfs as I suspect the detail is going to be hard pin down but for what it's worth  Over the weekend it has developed a wave along the south east flank of the ridge to the north east and tracks it west to be a shallow feature over England and Wales on Monday with some showery rain Then back to a fairly slack easterly by Wednesday with temps near average but a tad cooler along the east coast

gfs_z500_vort_natl_27.thumb.png.df007283eb52783c19da11c5ccfdd221.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_35.thumb.png.d60cede850c85a5b7ce690a83424d43f.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
2 hours ago, Big Dave said:

There has to be some left of April fools reading this thread, I booked to go camping in 10 days time!   Looks like that may have been an error! 

I would unbook it. Weather looks terrible. Below average temps and miserable.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Is this a tentative sign of more settled conditions post mid-month? Flash in the pan?

image.thumb.png.e036c0a2bc43bca219467d82bb76d226.png

The rest of the run does look a tad gruesome...?

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