Model discussion - March drawing to a close

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not gonna discuss the short term cold spell, instead a little look at beyond day 10 with the GFS model, hints of a much warmer air feed by this time and has the chart shows... +12 uppers tantalisingly close! But if you look to the NE, very cold uppers still in the equation! A typical transitional period of cold and warm air trying to gain a foothold. I personally wouldn't mind some of that +10 or so uppers making landfall at this stage, would be sure to push temps upwards of 20c with sunshine... On a slightly more negative note, the GFS seems to keep us flirting with cool/cold conditions throughout much of its run.... So let's just see. 

[Frosty.]

The extended GEFS 6z is interesting, quite a lot of warm potential..but also some arctic potential too. The glorious duality of spring!..on this occasion i'm only showing the warmth because I'm so unbiased!

There's still a strong blocking signal with scandi height rises gradually backing west to the north of the uk so to me it looks like a gradually improving picture next week but eastern coast's would be cold.

[Frosty.]

Ok I couldn't resist..just for the coldies!..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I would imagine there would be some avid radar watchers over the next 72hrs! Convection heaven perhaps with clusters forming just about anywhere, good chance of significant snow to higher parts, even to low level locations in the heavier precipitation. Just a few hours of the white stuff could be fun and potentially hazardous if it falls at the wrong time.... Or indeed if its the wrong type!

[knocker]

An array of fronts/troughs on the midday analysis with some low stratus sneaking in down here

some showery rain already into the north west and by 1800 a more concentrated band associated with the cold front and occlusion will be approaching the western Isles and N. Ireland, This will track south east during the evening and overnight with wintry showers then effecting the above in the colder air, with snow on the high ground

 

Edited April 1, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

There must be something wrong with the Gfs 6z parallel..it's showing some warmth and high pressure!!

[stodge]

Afternoon all

The output continues to point to an Easterly wind-flow becoming established next week. Nothing too cold - indeed, could be quite warm for western and north western areas with the greatest risk of showers for southern and south-western areas.

06Z Parallel keeps the core of heights to the north of the British isles throughout FI so an E'ly flow is maintained but as the HP centre migrates first West and South West into the Mid Atlentic, we then see a hint of retrogression as the air flow turns to a NW'ly and a large LP moves toward Scandinavia.

06Z OP keeps heights to the NE of the British Isles throughout FI so an ESE'ly flow tending more E'ly with time but fairly benign stuff in all honesty.

06Z Control eventually weakens the E'ly as LP becomes established in mid-Atlantic bringing in a much warmer SE'ly air flow so some pleasant conditions on offer.

The GEFS are strong about northern blocking but less so about its location though there's clearly a signal for blocking over Greenland as we near mid month. That then offers some cold perturbations at the very end of FI but that's a very long way off.

Just worth noting GEM 00Z at T+240 very much in line with GFS.

The 10 HPA number show the slow but predictable waning of the PV as we move into April and the polar night jet fades away. The new core of coldest air shifts to Siberia as warmer air finally moves into Greenland.

[Methuselah]

The GFS not coming-out until 4:30 is almost as discombobulating as having the clocks go back, every October!

[Bogman]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

The GFS not coming-out until 4:30 is almost as discombobulating as having the clocks go back, every October!

Disco-what?

[Frosty.]

Early stages of the Gfs 12z operational but clearly some cold frosty nights and cold days for the time of year with April showers, some persistent rain and a wintry mix of precipitation and a chance that some areas may get a covering of snow, mainly hills but perhaps lower ground overnight / early mornings...Friday looks milder and much drier following a frosty start.

Edited April 1, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

Sunday's sure shaping-up to be stinker. Especially so, by eastern coasts:

 

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Sunday's sure shaping-up to be stinker. Especially so, by eastern coasts:

 

Indeed Ed..very bracing with quite a strong Nor'Easter in eastern coastal areas of england..not much milder inland either unless you're in the sheltered far west.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I would say quite a bit of snow for NW parts of scotland to come... especially higher parts, the front sinking SE mainly as rain but perhaps some wintryness to much higher parts, before much colder Conditions follow on! 

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I would say quite a bit of snow for NW parts of scotland to come... especially higher parts, the front sinking SE mainly as rain but perhaps some wintryness to much higher parts, before much colder Conditions follow on! 

You must be salivating at the thought of this then, Matt?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

You must be salivating at the thought of this then, Matt?

I literally need a bucket and bib to collect the saliva Pete. Lovely chart though.

[Frosty.]

Looking at next week, the Gfs 12z operational becomes drier but temperatures continue below average and overnight frosts with high pressure replacing this week's complex trough...arctic air poised at end of run with snow into the far north...winter..spring..winter..spring..etc..etc..

Edited April 1, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

Are we headed for a 'clash of the titans'? 

  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Northern Ireland looks very much in the firing line for some snow over the next 24hrs! Not sure how many posters we have from that neck of the woods.... But looking pretty good for wintryness. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Are we headed for a 'clash of the titans'? 

  

Thanks for the commentary Pete and Karl, not viewed the ops yet, but looks pretty interesting guys!

[Mike Poole]

Just focusing on the Tuesday into Wednesday cold shot, now in the range of the HIRLAM - here's the cumulative snow chart over the next 48 hours on the 12z run:

Obviously much of this will not settle, but areas that get the precipitation over night may wake up to a snow cover on Wednesday.  

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Thanks for the commentary Pete and Karl, not viewed the ops yet, but looks pretty interesting guys!

You're welcome..it would be dead on here otherwise..apart from yourself and a few others.

Edited April 1, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Let me in British Isles or I will huff, I will Puff.... And I will blow your doors down!!!! 

Its shaping up to be a direct hit! 

Edited April 1, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

Looking at the extended GEFS 12z mean, winter keeps threatening to bite back, even on the cusp of Easter with some arctic outbreak potential.

Edited April 1, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

Paul Kinnell! 

A smidge of uncertainty: 

Edited April 1, 2019 by Ed Stone

[knocker]

Good timing for this trend