Model discussion - March drawing to a close

[karyo]

15 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I said yesterday folks, that with know ECM or UKMO on board this Nthly was probably dead in the water before it started! GFS did indeed lead us up the garden path again. I was perhaps a little guilty of over hyping this cold snap, even though I new there was only about a 10% chance of it coming off! Wasn't trying to mislead anyone... More of a case of searching for the first snowflake in 13months.... And tbh that really is a chronic return! Bugger it, roll on summer... This chase has done my head in more than all the other failed ones during winter. Not gonna post any charts as they are simply...... 

The Arctic is experiencing record breaking heat again so no wonder our hunt for cold and snow has become so fruitless. 

 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

The Arctic is experiencing record breaking heat again so no wonder our hunt for cold and snow has become so fruitless. 

 

Especially should the NH experience a summer anything like 2012, Karyo?

Meanwhile, there's still an outside chance of some snow, down the eastern side of the UK: 

[Frosty.]

She's seen the GEFS 6z mean and she's singing

[MATTWOLVES 3]

11 minutes ago, karyo said:

The Arctic is experiencing record breaking heat again so no wonder our hunt for cold and snow has become so fruitless. 

 

Yes karyo, I posted a graph on Sunday showing the significant warming going on over the arctic currently, yet some posters keep referring to how much cold air is bottled up over the Arctic at present! There has been a lot of cold air bottled over Greenland, but this hasn't served to help us at all... In fact it does us more of a favour if its warmer over Greenland. But Yeh... Basically your correct.

[Methuselah]

Maybe not much in the way of snow, but inland convection would be widespread?

  

Edited March 27, 2019 by Ed Stone

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Personally guys, I would say we are flogging a dead horse so to speak.... The further we move into April, the less these flagged up Ntlys will pack a punch! Here is a classic example from the para beyond 10 day's! The uppers just get that bit higher.... As well as the fact they constantly stay at around 10+days. 

[Frosty.]

Let's just say.. roll on summer, there's only so much a member of the cold mafia (sacra) can take!!!

[snowray]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Let's just say.. roll on summer, there's only so much a member of the cold mafia (sacra) can take!!!

Models have been all winter, and continue to be, totally useless. Might as well use the old tea leaves to forecast a northerly.

Edited March 27, 2019 by snowray

[MATTWOLVES 3]

14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Let's just say.. roll on summer, there's only so much a member of the cold mafia (sacra) can take!!!

Interesting you say that Karl, I've just had a look at the seasonal model the CFS, obviously it's only picking up on trends and any detail is useless, but it basically shows quite a cold month! With cold shots from the North at times, even into the start of May it keeps temps suppressed with an Arctic origin feed of air! I really hope this model is gonna be as wide of the mark has its been all winter..... I really couldn't take a miserable cool late spring into summer, not after the drastic fail of this winter. 

Edited March 27, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

The extended GEFS 6z mean is on an upward curve compared to the 00z..the second half of April could possibly see a marked improvement on the first with a return to warmer more settled weather!

Edited March 27, 2019 by Frosty.

[karyo]

41 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes karyo, I posted a graph on Sunday showing the significant warming going on over the arctic currently, yet some posters keep referring to how much cold air is bottled up over the Arctic at present! There has been a lot of cold air bottled over Greenland, but this hasn't served to help us at all... In fact it does us more of a favour if its warmer over Greenland. But Yeh... Basically your correct.

Yes, a cold Greenland doesn't do us any favours. 

I feel that the loss of Arctic ice is the reason for those fantasy cold charts not making it to T0 and the high pressure from the Azores often extends into the continent. 

I am more worried about the coming winters as the cold pools shrink more and more. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

Yes, a cold Greenland doesn't do us any favours. 

I feel that the loss of Arctic ice is the reason for those fantasy cold charts not making it to T0 and the high pressure from the Azores often extends into the continent. 

I am more worried about the coming winters as the cold pools shrink more and more. 

Perhaps only drastic solar minimum is gonna save us in the next few years then! Obviously we will end up with a hum dinger of a winter sooner or later, but these sooner or laters are gonna end up much further apart! A once every few years may become a once every few decades scenario! Quite a worrying sign really. 

[karyo]

Just now, Mattwolves said:

Perhaps only drastic solar minimum is gonna save us in the next few years then! Obviously we will end up with a hum dinger of a winter sooner or later, but these sooner or laters are gonna end up much further apart! A once every few years may become a once every few decades scenario! Quite a worrying sign really. 

Agreed! Those rare events are not going to be enough for us coldies. 

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

the CFS, obviously it's only picking up on trends and any detail is useless, but it basically shows quite a cold month! With cold shots from the North at times, even into the start of May 

The CFS was abysmal with its seasonal winter forecast..I guess the only way is up

[stodge]

Afternoon all :)

The morning's ECM 00Z was a kick in the teeth for cold fans and there's no point sugar coating it. A glancing blow looks the best on offer for those looking for a serious Northerly or Arctic outbreak next week.

What we do have though is a rare degree of agreement across the major models going into the new month and beyond. As the current HP weakens and retreats east, two more cells take its place and while centred a tad further north and allowing a light E'ly to affect southern areas, it's the next HP cell coming out of CONUS this time next week which is catching my eye.

It takes up residence in mid Atlantic but at T+240 with the ridge across the south of the British Isles but OP, Parallel and Control are all similar in weakening its influence and holding it out west. The OP develops a trough over the British Isles while both the Parallel and Control hint at retrogression with the trough dropping down either into NW Europe or Scandinavia. Either way, the airflow shifts to North or North East approaching mid month which is far from unusual in April.

Just to add GEM 00Z OP isn't far from it either so there may be a signal developing for some form of mid Atlantic ridging as we move further into April.

The PV continues to weaken as you'd expect and the 06Z Parallel posits a shift to the Siberian side in far FI which would obviously support the retrogression indicated in the 500HPA forecast. Control goes even further with a significant displacement allowing for significant height rises over Greenland.

It's all a long way off but it's not an atypical pattern for April/May so a colder period with northerly or easterly domination remains a strong possibility as we move into April.

[Methuselah]

16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The CFS was abysmal with its seasonal winter forecast..I guess the only way is up

Way back in 2013, I was of the opinion that the CFS is next to useless; I've seen nothing since then that would make me change my mind!

[Frosty.]

Just as the models... so far today significantly water down the cold snap potential next week, exeter's update today which made no mention of wintry showers and snow yesterday, today does..you couldn't make it up..the models ( mainly the gfs / gefs & mean) were far more promising for wintry weather yesterday..

Edited March 27, 2019 by Frosty.

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

Yes, a cold Greenland doesn't do us any favours. 

I feel that the loss of Arctic ice is the reason for those fantasy cold charts not making it to T0 and the high pressure from the Azores often extends into the continent. 

I am more worried about the coming winters as the cold pools shrink more and more. 

Extent of sea ice hasn't changed in the last decade

Edited March 27, 2019 by cheeky_monkey

[karyo]

7 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Extent of see ice hasn't changed in the last decade

What is your source? 

The National Snow & Ice Data Center shows that both Arctic and Antarctic run well below the 1981-2010 average. 

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

In fact the record low extent in the Arctic was recorded in September 2012 and currently we are at a lower extent than there was at this time in 2012. 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

On march 13 2019,Arctic sea ice likely reached its maximum extent for the year, at 14.78 million Square miles. The seventh lowest in the 40 year satellite record, tying with 2007.This years maximum extent is 860,000square km, 332, 000 Square miles below the 1981-210 average maximum of 15.64 million square km, and 370,000 square km above the lowest minimum of 14.41 million square km set on March 7th 2017. Prior to 2019 the 4 lowest maximum extents occurred from 2015-2018. The date of the maximum this year March 13 was very close to the 1981-2010 meridian date of 2012. Well that's the latest anyway... 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

45 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Just as the models... so far today significantly water down the cold snap potential next week, exeter's update today which made no mention of wintry showers and snow yesterday, today does..you couldn't make it up..the models ( mainly the gfs / gefs & mean) were far more promising for wintry weather yesterday..

That's bloomin typical Karl! It just goes to show how their in house data differs from what we get to view! 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

That's bloomin typical Karl! It just goes to show how their in house data differs from what we get to view! 

I should just add that although snow is mentioned, it's for northern hills and mountains and wintry showers mainly for the northwest of the uk so it doesn't indicate there being a cold snap as such next week..and neither do the models..so far today. 

[cheeky_monkey]

53 minutes ago, karyo said:

What is your source? 

The National Snow & Ice Data Center shows that both Arctic and Antarctic run well below the 1981-2010 average. 

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

In fact the record low extent in the Arctic was recorded in September 2012 and currently we are at a lower extent than there was at this time in 2012. 

 

1981-2010 isn't the last decade

[Frosty.]

There's a lot of speculation about will there or won't there be a cold snap next tues / wed but there's actually a cold snap on sun / mon with snow for parts of scotland and widespread frosts!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

What is your source? 

The National Snow & Ice Data Center shows that both Arctic and Antarctic run well below the 1981-2010 average. 

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

In fact the record low extent in the Arctic was recorded in September 2012 and currently we are at a lower extent than there was at this time in 2012. 

 

Its pointless having this debate WITH CM on warming and ice extent, when you live in a location where 5 months of the year are frozen.... You simply fail to see there is a problem.