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Model discussion - March drawing to a close


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

18z delivering the eye candy!! Come on GFS!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Veering NE'ly now at T186, this would be perfect synoptics for cold at any time, and would deliver in spades even in April, well you never know it could happen!

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 102m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow or Heat
  • Location: Coventry, 102m asl
13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS firing up a better Northerly at 150-

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Welcome back Mr.Murr!!!

This can't give more than cold rain at the lower levels. No way near last year's BFTE.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

18z operational shows snow next week, even for the southeast..hope the Ecm comes on board tomorrow!❄️

And the beeb, and the met, the list goes on!!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Somebody alert the express... National snow day coming, even the S/SE.... Its gonna be bedlam!!!!!!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Amazing, a possible  1 day Northerly toppler in April brings netweather melt down!!..❄️:help:..what must the Americans / Canadians think of us poor british desperate coldies.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

It's coming on FV3 18z , here T168:

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❄️

Actually some margin for error on that unexpected cold hit - interesting!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The GFSP tends to push it through more to the North and East, and we are quickly back into a more W/NWTly

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I will focus on the positives...There's still some support from the GEFS 18z for a potent arctic plunge next tues / wed with -10 850's and snow showers for many along with sharp frosts and icy patches..in early april.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

And the negatives.... 24hr blink and you will miss it.... Only GFS on board.... Beeb, met not interested! Oh well, that's 1 positive!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

And the negatives.... 24hr blink and you will miss it.... Only GFS on board.... Beeb, met not interested! Oh well, that's 1 positive!!

Oh absolutely, there's some dross too on the GEFS 18z but these are my  highlights for cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

One thing I have noticed over the years is the gfs is very good at predicting Northerly’s . Let’s hope it’s nailed this one . 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

It's a petty we wasn't seeing more of these type of charts during winter! Heights building over scandy, could have had another BFTE scenario... Oh well, let's see where tomorrow takes us... Its already taken us up the garden path, perhaps this time it will take us up a cul de sac.... And has dann Corbett used to say....... That's ya weather..... For now.... Bless him

gfs-0-384.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Thankfully at this time of year the ukmo not having anything to do with a northerly, gfs also significantly watered down...one final slap in the face for those desperate to see a snow flake....the issue regarding the northerly is the same as it's been all winter...the high just can't gain enough Lattitude.. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Gfs 00z operational i'm seriously thinking of hiring a boat and heading for the middle of the north sea to get my snow fix next week!!!

00_168_preciptype.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 00z mean it's turning more into a glancing blow early / mid next week although the operational actually gives us two bites at the cherry, one next week and then another a week later.

As for the Ecm 00z..Meh

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Tail ends of the para and the op (00Z) seem still to be in a no man's land:

Para:image.thumb.png.f222f7ebe859034c4d25cfc0a8f630dc.png          Op:image.thumb.png.dee56b2ad65e964cfb62f79f2421721b.png

Ensembles show nowt special, either: image.thumb.png.c5c4488fda66c4eee45f72445880970f.png

Only time will tell, as to the outcome -- or not -- of the upcoming snow event...:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, the chance of a very brief Northerly is just about hanging in there..I know how ridiculous this sounds clutching at a 12hr Northerly in April..sad

EDM1-168.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

06Z at T+99...yet another glancing blow? It is indeed 'sad', Karl!:gathering:

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I'm not liking this, one bit: rapid infill like yesterday; infill that still hasn't gone?

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Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the Gfs 00z operational i'm seriously thinking of hiring a boat and heading for the middle of the north sea to get my snow fix next week!!!

 

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational, even a boat trip to the middle of the north sea would be a waste of time, it's gone from glancing blow to no blow.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

A potentially interesting N-S temperature gradient (c. 16C?) setting up?

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Convection alert! image.thumb.png.7a32297c1b0121a9ab1b5739b7d4dab0.png

 

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A chance of snow for the SE..:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I said yesterday folks, that with know ECM or UKMO on board this Nthly was probably dead in the water before it started! GFS did indeed lead us up the garden path again. I was perhaps a little guilty of over hyping this cold snap, even though I new there was only about a 10% chance of it coming off! Wasn't trying to mislead anyone... More of a case of searching for the first snowflake in 13months.... And tbh that really is a chronic return! Bugger it, roll on summer... This chase has done my head in more than all the other failed ones during winter. Not gonna post any charts as they are simply...... 

I-Have-Had-Enough-Of-This-Rubbish-Good-Day-Funny-Attitude-Puppy.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

A chance of snow for the SE..:shok:

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Possibly: image.thumb.png.cc0404c16a41596558652b26a8259f00.png image.thumb.png.1ad1db0b0a85f16d195847c8c38c9854.png 

The farmers won't like it though??‍?

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